Nation, long time no speak... I mean, granted, we've gone longer... but in the midst of a hotly-contested leadership race, 2 weeks is just 2 weeks too long... ;)
It's been an interesting 15 days, to be certain... 2 party-sponsored leadership forums, policy announcements by the barrel full, and the familiar game of "This candidate said THIS!!!" - "No, that's not what I said". Ahh... it's never boring, that's to be sure.
Here are some of the highlights (and, in some cases, lowlights) of the past 2 weeks, for those of you who might have missed anything... (candidates in alphabetical order, by first name)
Alison Redford
Redford has come out in favour of the provincial government investing in the Alberta Creative Hub, a film studio and production facility proposed near Canada Olympic Park in Calgary. Alison has also taken aim at cellular roaming charges - a stance that hit a little close to home, it would seem, as the spokesman for Telus had to call up his buddies at his former employer and write a column that ran the very next day, rebutting Redford's claims. Redford has also gotten into the sometimes sticky issue of MLA pay, committing to make the remuneration much more clear for MLAs, cabinet ministers and leaders, as well as eliminating "committee bonuses" and proposing that MLA pay and perks be handed over to an independent panel to be set.
Doug Griffiths
Griffiths continues to impress at the party leadership forums. While this blogger isn't picking "winners and losers" at these events, that doesn't mean the party faithful and general public aren't doing the same - and of the 6 attendees to the Lethbridge forum that I randomly polled after the event, 4 named Griffiths as the most impressive - including 2 wearing Mar buttons. If he keeps up his performance, the televised debates in Edmonton and Calgary should be a boon. He ran into issues at a privately-organized forum in Calgary for 2-and-a-half candidates (Gary Mar was double-booked, and oddly sent Iris Evans in his place), though, when he came to the defence of child welfare workers and told a personal story about what his father would likely do if he felt Doug's kids were in danger. Griffiths was, according to one person in the room, "Spitting mad" when the quotes were used by a local reporter to draw a reaction from the grandparents of a recent tragic case. Griffiths apologized to the grandparents for any hurt he might have caused them, but it's a stark lesson learned in media relations. Griffiths is moving on, having released the crown jewel of his policy platform, the Community Development plank, yesterday on his website.
Doug Horner
Horner made news yesterday with his proposal that healthcare wait time benchmarks be set for procedures, and if the wait time exceeds that benchmark that the Alberta Government pay to have patients flown out to other jurisdictions for their procedure. Doug has also committed to doubling the funding for the Alberta Foundation for the Arts over the next 3 years. He was the lucky recipient of some jabs from Gary Mar in a meeting with the Edmonton Journal editorial board this week over changes to the province's research funding framework that took place while it was Horner's responsibility. This is good news for Horner, as Mar is too smart to attack a rival candidate who doesn't pose an internally-perceived threat to his front-runner status.
Gary Mar
Mar took an unexpected leap 2 weeks ago when he came out in favour of the province looking at private health delivery. It wasn't unexpected that Mar felt that way - he was Ralph Klein's health minister, after all - but it *was* unexpected that Gary felt a need to even open that can of worms. With 4 former Ministers of Health on Team Gary - Mar himself, Liepert, Hancock and Evans - the health file is one he's well-stocked to defend. Mar's well-organized campaign is running on all cylinders, with buzzing hospitality suites, his General Election-style campaign stops, on-line presence and co-ordinated policy releases and Letters to the Editor in local papers and MSM webpages. Also showing on those pages of late, though, are columns and blogs like a recent one by Mark Lisac on the Calgary Herald site, that point out the Mar campaign may be playing it TOO safe with the lead. As an Oilers fan, I'm not sure I know what it's like to play with a lead, but I understand the metaphor.
Rick Orman
Orman took a bit of a hit 2 weeks ago when his former boss, Don Getty, endorsed Doug Horner (the son of another former Getty cabinet member). Since then, though, Orman has been firmly on the offense, claiming that the Athabasca Land Use plan will cost the province $150 Billion (with a B) in lost royalties, calling the plan "Third World". Rick proposes reforming the immigration policies of the province, taking aim at the factors he feel impede immigration to Alberta, and that contribute to our labour shortage - like training and retention policies. Orman out-bid Ted Morton on education tax credits, offering post-secondary graduates tax credits of up to $25,000 if they stay in Alberta for 5 years after graduation. Just a few days ago, he also promised that one of the government ministries that would be eliminated under his leadership would be Aboriginal Affairs, calling the government's attitude towards First Nations and Metis "paternalistic". Gun blazing, that's our Rick.
Ted Morton
Morton brought out the "big guns" this week, with the release of his Fiscal policies. Of note: A full roll-back of the salary increases for the Premier and cabinet, mandatory referendums on any income tax hike proposed by government, and a commitment to have Alberta "back in the black" in 2 years. Ted also spoke about the need to put "conservation back into conservatism", and unveiled a plan to fund capital spending in provincial parks through lottery revenue. In Lethbridge, Morton identified the building of west-bound pipelines to ship Alberta's energy products globally as "my number one priority", so that Alberta can get the global price for its energy resources, rather than the North American price.
I wanted to talk a little bit about the forum in Lethbridge, given that I was in attendance. On the whole, I thought the event was well organized. The questions were solid, the time limits were rigidly enforced (much to the detriment of Horner all night, who had a lot to say), and the event was attended by well in excess of 400 people (with 4,000 more watching online).
The only criticism I have of the event was the set-up of the candidate booths afterwards. Now, I know it's nobody's fault about the floor plan of the hotel and conference rooms - that's just how it is. There are only so many places in Lethbridge you can book an event like this. I get it. But the lighting in the atrium lobby was absolutely terrible - you couldn't see more than 5 feet in front of your face. I'm sure it impacted membership sales and post-event mingling.
All that said, though, the hospitality suites were certainly hopping. In particular, the Mar and Horner events were VERY well attended shortly after the event, though I'm told that by the end of the night (long after this blogger and his MSM travelling buddy had retired) the Griffiths suite was jammed to the rafters - and given the relatively small size of the room, that can't have been very comfortable. It was a suite, though, and so by its very definition a frill to the "don't have money to spend on a lot of frills" Griffiths campaign. It's a lesson sometimes the provincial government would do well to heed.
I was hoping to attend tonight's forum in Red Deer, however my long-awaited photographer's appointment (for a project you'll be hearing a lot about soon) has been changed last-minute, and I'll be tied up and away from the computer. Be sure to follow #pcldr on Twitter for coverage of the event, or watch it live on the PC Party website.
Who's going to bring me Donut Mill - anyone? Anyone?
... an attempt to make sense of politics and political happenings in Calgary, Alberta, Canada, and North America.
Thursday, September 1, 2011
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
The Race to the Premier's Office - 31 Days to the First Ballot
I don't know what to tell you, Nation.
On the one hand, it seems to all the world as though the 6 candidates for PC Leader are just floating placidly on the pond of public consciousness, not making any waves and waiting to drift into the sun.
As anyone who knows ducks (or political campaigns, for that matter) would tell you, however, there's some absolutely FURIOUS paddling going on underneath the surface of that pond.
Here's what you may have missed this week, in the race to crown Alberta's next Premier...
Klein endorses Mar, Getty endorses Horner
Neither former Premier mentioned particular policies in their endorsements, instead making them endorsements of the men themselves. The Klein endorsement will likely carry more weight than that of Don Getty, however the actual real value of endorsements is very much open for debate. I have a lot of friends holding PC memberships. I have yet to hear one say "I didn't have any idea for whom I was going to vote, but if Gary's good enough for Ralph, he's good enough for me".
The Dangers of Twitter
Rick Orman got into a bit of a tough situation this week on Twitter, when he started trading shots with fellow PC Leadership candidate and Twitter Ninja Doug Griffiths over what he imagined (emphasis intended) was Griffiths' advocacy for a provincial sales tax. The exchange can be found here, courtesy of Stuart A. Thomson transcription services. What's touched on is the simultaneous exchange that was going on between the 2 and Walter Schwabe of Fused Logic, who had offered space for both men to debate on live-to-the-web streaming video. Orman refused repeated efforts by Schwabe to confirm if he would be willing to take part in the debate, leaving Griffiths without a dance partner and leaving Schwabe a little hot under the collar. In light of Orman's clearly expressed belief that leadership forums and debates are a waste of time in a race where memberships sold - not policy, or popularity, or public events - will be the biggest determining factor of success - his reluctance to "waste his time" debating another candidate on internet video makes sense. My response would be that getting televised on the web is better than getting televised NOWHERE, but Rick disagrees, as is his right. I'd just remind him, though, that Twitter isn't about broadcasting, it's about conversation. When you ignore the people who are trying to converse with you, you alienate them. And when they run web media companies... well, remember the old adage: "Never get into a fight with someone who buys ink by the barrel". Electrons are the new ink.
The Dangers of Twitter, continued...
Rick just had a bad night. He really did. At one point during the evening's Twestivities, the Orman/Griffiths repartee was interrupted by this tweet, from Alberta Party President Chris LaBossiere:
The problem, which Labossiere made clear in his next, incredulous tweet, was self-evident:
And indeed, that's exactly where it IS from. LaBossiere didn't pluck the wording out of thin air; he was quoting Orman's website, and asking for clarification. Orman has not, to my knowledge, explained why he thought a term from his own website, under the heading "Rick's Commitments", was unfamiliar to him. It certainly couldn't be that the candidate didn't know what was on his own website - that'd be unfathomable.
Mar comes out in favour of private healthcare
The only thing shocking about this position, long-held as Daveberta outlines on his blog, is that Gary felt the need to go there. It could be that his internal polling is giving him some ugly numbers - in fact, that's the only reason I see for the perceived front-runner to voluntarily wade into the private health care debate. Rest assured, this position is going to get Gary some headlines for the next while - but are they really the sort of headlines that he needed? Or is this a case of "there's no such thing as bad press"?
Senate Elections on the near horizon
All 6 leadership candidates have come out in favour of holding Senate elections by 2012, in anticipation of filling upcoming vacancies in Alberta's representation in the Upper House. Candidate Doug Horner, however, wants the Alberta senate elections held in conjunction with simultaneous senate elections in BC and Saskatchewan, turning senate elections - and duly elected senators - from an Alberta-exclusive phenomenon into a regional one and putting senate reform back on the federal map in a big way.
"Read My Lips..."
5 of the 6 PC Leadership candidates have pledged they will consider no increases in taxes, no new taxes and no changes to the energy royalty structure. The black sheep, Doug Griffiths is leaving everything on the table, citing the gap between the $12 Billion we collect in income and business taxes versus the $39 Billion we spend each year. "We don't pay for the services we get. We rely on royalties and then we wonder why we ride this rollercoaster?... Maybe we should review the tax system and pay for what we get. That's all I'm saying. That's why it's part of that whole big fiscal discussion we need to have." Griffiths said to the Calgary Herald. If that chorus sounds familiar, it's because it's a call for a discussion that was also made this past May by none other than Saint Peter, Peter Lougheed, when he suggested the new PC Leader would have to take a good close look at the tax base to determine how to fund programs and infrastructure for the long-term, preparing for the day that the Golden Goose (the energy sector) stops laying eggs (my words, not his). If, in light of this, 5 of the 6 candidates are pledging no new taxes and no increases, it would seem that Griffiths was the only leadership candidate listening when Lougheed was speaking.
The next PC Leadership Forum takes place this Thursday at 7 pm, in Medicine Hat. The event will be live-streamed via the web through the PC Party website. I'll be watching from the friendly confines of Enlightened Savage World Headquarters. Since the winner of this contest will become the Premier of Alberta, I'd urge you to watch, as well. They're YOUR tax dollars, after all - no matter WHICH party you're inclined to support.
On the one hand, it seems to all the world as though the 6 candidates for PC Leader are just floating placidly on the pond of public consciousness, not making any waves and waiting to drift into the sun.
As anyone who knows ducks (or political campaigns, for that matter) would tell you, however, there's some absolutely FURIOUS paddling going on underneath the surface of that pond.
Here's what you may have missed this week, in the race to crown Alberta's next Premier...
Klein endorses Mar, Getty endorses Horner
Neither former Premier mentioned particular policies in their endorsements, instead making them endorsements of the men themselves. The Klein endorsement will likely carry more weight than that of Don Getty, however the actual real value of endorsements is very much open for debate. I have a lot of friends holding PC memberships. I have yet to hear one say "I didn't have any idea for whom I was going to vote, but if Gary's good enough for Ralph, he's good enough for me".
The Dangers of Twitter
Rick Orman got into a bit of a tough situation this week on Twitter, when he started trading shots with fellow PC Leadership candidate and Twitter Ninja Doug Griffiths over what he imagined (emphasis intended) was Griffiths' advocacy for a provincial sales tax. The exchange can be found here, courtesy of Stuart A. Thomson transcription services. What's touched on is the simultaneous exchange that was going on between the 2 and Walter Schwabe of Fused Logic, who had offered space for both men to debate on live-to-the-web streaming video. Orman refused repeated efforts by Schwabe to confirm if he would be willing to take part in the debate, leaving Griffiths without a dance partner and leaving Schwabe a little hot under the collar. In light of Orman's clearly expressed belief that leadership forums and debates are a waste of time in a race where memberships sold - not policy, or popularity, or public events - will be the biggest determining factor of success - his reluctance to "waste his time" debating another candidate on internet video makes sense. My response would be that getting televised on the web is better than getting televised NOWHERE, but Rick disagrees, as is his right. I'd just remind him, though, that Twitter isn't about broadcasting, it's about conversation. When you ignore the people who are trying to converse with you, you alienate them. And when they run web media companies... well, remember the old adage: "Never get into a fight with someone who buys ink by the barrel". Electrons are the new ink.
The Dangers of Twitter, continued...
Rick just had a bad night. He really did. At one point during the evening's Twestivities, the Orman/Griffiths repartee was interrupted by this tweet, from Alberta Party President Chris LaBossiere:
@Rick_Orman I would love to hear a couple examples of "innovation in the tax system" that would help us balance our budget. Help me out.Now, at this point as a PC Leadership contender, your spidey-senses have to be kicking in. "Innovation in the tax system" certainly sounds like one of those political euphemisms designed to say something without actually saying it - like "increasing revenues" means "hiking taxes". And Orman said as much in response:
@ChrisLaBossiere not a language I understand. "innovation in tax system". What is that code for?
The problem, which Labossiere made clear in his next, incredulous tweet, was self-evident:
@Rick_Orman Umm... it wasn't a trick question. This is YOUR wording from your website.
And indeed, that's exactly where it IS from. LaBossiere didn't pluck the wording out of thin air; he was quoting Orman's website, and asking for clarification. Orman has not, to my knowledge, explained why he thought a term from his own website, under the heading "Rick's Commitments", was unfamiliar to him. It certainly couldn't be that the candidate didn't know what was on his own website - that'd be unfathomable.
Mar comes out in favour of private healthcare
The only thing shocking about this position, long-held as Daveberta outlines on his blog, is that Gary felt the need to go there. It could be that his internal polling is giving him some ugly numbers - in fact, that's the only reason I see for the perceived front-runner to voluntarily wade into the private health care debate. Rest assured, this position is going to get Gary some headlines for the next while - but are they really the sort of headlines that he needed? Or is this a case of "there's no such thing as bad press"?
Senate Elections on the near horizon
All 6 leadership candidates have come out in favour of holding Senate elections by 2012, in anticipation of filling upcoming vacancies in Alberta's representation in the Upper House. Candidate Doug Horner, however, wants the Alberta senate elections held in conjunction with simultaneous senate elections in BC and Saskatchewan, turning senate elections - and duly elected senators - from an Alberta-exclusive phenomenon into a regional one and putting senate reform back on the federal map in a big way.
"Read My Lips..."
5 of the 6 PC Leadership candidates have pledged they will consider no increases in taxes, no new taxes and no changes to the energy royalty structure. The black sheep, Doug Griffiths is leaving everything on the table, citing the gap between the $12 Billion we collect in income and business taxes versus the $39 Billion we spend each year. "We don't pay for the services we get. We rely on royalties and then we wonder why we ride this rollercoaster?... Maybe we should review the tax system and pay for what we get. That's all I'm saying. That's why it's part of that whole big fiscal discussion we need to have." Griffiths said to the Calgary Herald. If that chorus sounds familiar, it's because it's a call for a discussion that was also made this past May by none other than Saint Peter, Peter Lougheed, when he suggested the new PC Leader would have to take a good close look at the tax base to determine how to fund programs and infrastructure for the long-term, preparing for the day that the Golden Goose (the energy sector) stops laying eggs (my words, not his). If, in light of this, 5 of the 6 candidates are pledging no new taxes and no increases, it would seem that Griffiths was the only leadership candidate listening when Lougheed was speaking.
The next PC Leadership Forum takes place this Thursday at 7 pm, in Medicine Hat. The event will be live-streamed via the web through the PC Party website. I'll be watching from the friendly confines of Enlightened Savage World Headquarters. Since the winner of this contest will become the Premier of Alberta, I'd urge you to watch, as well. They're YOUR tax dollars, after all - no matter WHICH party you're inclined to support.
Shoulda Carried the "1"...
Nation, typos happen. We've all zigged linguistically or mathematically when we should have zagged.
When politicians do it, however, it's a bit more of a problem. Because, quite simply put, we don't know whether or not we can trust a lot of them. They're up there with lawyers and used car salesmen in our public esteem, as "people who very probably would lie to my face if it would help them earn money/win". So, when a politician gets something wrong, we don't know if it's because they honestly made a mistake, or because they're trying to intentionally mislead us.
This problem reared its head this week when Wildrose Party candidate Richard Jones, of Calgary-Acadia (nee Egmont), posted the following on his Facebook page (click on image to enlarge):
Now, Jones' indignance - which is quite possibly linked to his future career prospects, let's remember - is based on the absolutely brutal statistic that he gleaned from the National Post column listed underneath his comment. In said column, Lorne Gunter quotes a report from the Fraser Institute in which the "$10,204 per capita" number appears.
The gist of the column - and the report - is that Alberta has a spending problem. Spending has increased nearly 40%, adjusting for inflation, since the Golden Age of King Ralph in 1996. That's certainly a discussion I'd be happy to have with anyone. But there's something about the figure that Richard quoted that just seems... off.
Let's see...
"Today, the PC Government spends $10,204 per person each month"... and he's obviously committed to that number, because he then extrapolates that, for his family of 6, that works out to over $720,000 per year. A solid and meaningful number. Those Tories must be out of control. I mean, let's extrapolate that number further, and see what those PC jerks are spending in TOTAL each year!
$441953892912 per year.
That's a big number. Let's add some commas.
$441,953,892,912.
Wait...
What?
The PC's are spending $441 BILLION per year?
No wonder Richard's so angry... Now *I'M* angry, too! Let's get rid of those free-spending morons!
Of course, a look at the budget would tell you that Richard's math is off, by a bit. $402 Billion, to be exact. Which is a lot of money. It's about 17 months worth of total FEDERAL spending, actually.
In fairness, it could be that Richard simply misunderstood the figure he was looking at. In particular, this could be true if he took Lorne's word for it and didn't actually read the Fraser Institute report which Lorne linked to from his column (it can be found here). Page 28, Figure 5. The truth is, the Government of Alberta spends $10,204 PER YEAR per capita, not "per month", as Richard asserted. The total amount that Ed Stelmach spends on Richard's family of 6 is $61,224 each year, over $33,000 of which is for those silly frills "health care" and "public education".
I'm trying to give Richard the benefit of the doubt here, because if he DID understand the true figure, the only other conclusion we could come to is that he was intentionally misleading us. Which, of course, I'd never accuse him of. In fact, I'd be happy to post his clarification in this space.
Albertans need to have a serious, open and frank discussion about taxes and about spending. These are adult conversations, requiring the utmost care and detail because they affect so many people in so many serious ways. We owe it to ourselves, to our fellow Albertans, and to future generations to get it RIGHT, rather than to throw soundbytes and factoids at each other to try and "beat the other guys".
Is spending "out of control"? I don't think so. I think it's higher than it should be. I think we're making up for the deplorable lack of program and infrastructure spending in the mid-90's for the most part, but there's also fat to be cut, and inefficiencies to address.
But let's do it with the real facts on the table, and calculators in hand.
Like grown-ups - neighbours, friends - trying to make the province better.
Not like politicians trying to win a job.
Our next generation deserves better than that.
When politicians do it, however, it's a bit more of a problem. Because, quite simply put, we don't know whether or not we can trust a lot of them. They're up there with lawyers and used car salesmen in our public esteem, as "people who very probably would lie to my face if it would help them earn money/win". So, when a politician gets something wrong, we don't know if it's because they honestly made a mistake, or because they're trying to intentionally mislead us.
This problem reared its head this week when Wildrose Party candidate Richard Jones, of Calgary-Acadia (nee Egmont), posted the following on his Facebook page (click on image to enlarge):
Now, Jones' indignance - which is quite possibly linked to his future career prospects, let's remember - is based on the absolutely brutal statistic that he gleaned from the National Post column listed underneath his comment. In said column, Lorne Gunter quotes a report from the Fraser Institute in which the "$10,204 per capita" number appears.
The gist of the column - and the report - is that Alberta has a spending problem. Spending has increased nearly 40%, adjusting for inflation, since the Golden Age of King Ralph in 1996. That's certainly a discussion I'd be happy to have with anyone. But there's something about the figure that Richard quoted that just seems... off.
Let's see...
"Today, the PC Government spends $10,204 per person each month"... and he's obviously committed to that number, because he then extrapolates that, for his family of 6, that works out to over $720,000 per year. A solid and meaningful number. Those Tories must be out of control. I mean, let's extrapolate that number further, and see what those PC jerks are spending in TOTAL each year!
- $10,204 per person, per month.
- 12 months per year.
- That works out to $122,448 per person, per year.
- There were 3,609,319 people living in Alberta in 2010, according to provincial figures.
$441953892912 per year.
That's a big number. Let's add some commas.
$441,953,892,912.
Wait...
What?
The PC's are spending $441 BILLION per year?
No wonder Richard's so angry... Now *I'M* angry, too! Let's get rid of those free-spending morons!
Of course, a look at the budget would tell you that Richard's math is off, by a bit. $402 Billion, to be exact. Which is a lot of money. It's about 17 months worth of total FEDERAL spending, actually.
In fairness, it could be that Richard simply misunderstood the figure he was looking at. In particular, this could be true if he took Lorne's word for it and didn't actually read the Fraser Institute report which Lorne linked to from his column (it can be found here). Page 28, Figure 5. The truth is, the Government of Alberta spends $10,204 PER YEAR per capita, not "per month", as Richard asserted. The total amount that Ed Stelmach spends on Richard's family of 6 is $61,224 each year, over $33,000 of which is for those silly frills "health care" and "public education".
I'm trying to give Richard the benefit of the doubt here, because if he DID understand the true figure, the only other conclusion we could come to is that he was intentionally misleading us. Which, of course, I'd never accuse him of. In fact, I'd be happy to post his clarification in this space.
Albertans need to have a serious, open and frank discussion about taxes and about spending. These are adult conversations, requiring the utmost care and detail because they affect so many people in so many serious ways. We owe it to ourselves, to our fellow Albertans, and to future generations to get it RIGHT, rather than to throw soundbytes and factoids at each other to try and "beat the other guys".
Is spending "out of control"? I don't think so. I think it's higher than it should be. I think we're making up for the deplorable lack of program and infrastructure spending in the mid-90's for the most part, but there's also fat to be cut, and inefficiencies to address.
But let's do it with the real facts on the table, and calculators in hand.
Like grown-ups - neighbours, friends - trying to make the province better.
Not like politicians trying to win a job.
Our next generation deserves better than that.
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
The Race to the Premier's Office - 38 Days to the First Ballot
Hello, Nation...
As panicked school children wonder where their summer holidays have gone, we take a gander at the calendar and realize we need but tear off one more page for the long-awaited PC Leadership election to be upon us. Political watchers are divided about whom the eventual winner might be, but few are proving foolish enough to predict a first ballot victory.
Gary Mar took a swipe at Alison Redford in a statement he made referencing Edmonton's tragically high murder rate for 2011. His suggestion that the provincial government, and Redford as Justice Minister, didn't follow through on funding the Safe Communities initiative was met with swift rebuttal by Redford, who in turn criticised Mar for (I'm paraphrasing, here) using tragic and senseless crimes to score political points. The 2 took their argument to the airwaves, appearing on the Rutherford radio program last Friday. Both campaigns, not surprisingly, felt their candidate won that showdown. Redford ended the discussion telling Mar "Next time, let's do this on Health Care". Mar's campaign took some heat shortly thereafter when it was alleged a junior team member had called into the program under a false name to lob a softball question at Mar. The campaign, for their part, says nothing like that was ever suggested or authorized, and if it DID happen, it would have been a volunteer who took matters into their own hands.
Later that same day, Redford was endorsed by the Calgary Police Association, which represents almost 2,000 Calgary Police Service members. The organization will not be donating money to Redford, but will encourage members to buy PC Party memberships in order to vote in the leadership race.
Earlier this week, Gary Mar gained the endorsement of current Minister of Education Dave Hancock. This brings the total number of former Ministers of Health on Team Mar to FOUR, with Gary himself, Hancock, Ron Liepert, and Iris Evans. It's enough to make Raj Sherman lose sleep.
Just last night, Rick Orman hosted a reported crowd of several hundred at Wurst Restaurant & Beerhall, a much celebrated new addition to Calgary's dining scene for those of us with "Ober" in our names. ;) The big news coming out of that event was Orman's call for a full operational review of provincial government expenditures. His argument was that the province doesn't have a revenue problem, it has a spending problem (an argument that worked for Ralph Klein when running against the record of the free-spending Getty cabinet, of which Orman had been a member for 7 years).
The candidates all attended the Alberta Teachers' Association Leadership Forum this morning. The reviews were generally positive, though the most muted, polite applause seemed to be directed at former University of Calgary Professor Ted Morton. The OTHER professional educator in the race, former junior high school teacher Doug Griffiths, received boisterous applause and cheering at several points, particularly in his closing statement when he pointed out, in response to an ATA table placard, "...the future, it's why teachers teach... it's also why they run to become Premier".
The 6 candidates will square off again in Ft. McMurray this Thursday, starting at 7 pm. I expect it's a safe bet that Energy and Royalties will be popular topics, and that the Mar/Redford and Orman/Mar jabs of the past few weeks may continue. The forum will be live-streamed on the PC Party Website. I'll be watching the event from Gary Mar's Calgary HQ, and talking to his team for reactions afterwards.
NOTE TO CAMPAIGNS: This (undecided) PCAA member, who writes a blog that a few people read, is only available to watch 2 more forums from your Calgary HQ's - the Medicine Hat and Edmonton forums. The others - Lethbridge, Calgary, and Red Deer - I'll be live-blogging from. You know how to reach me to extend an invite. First-come, first-served. ;)
As panicked school children wonder where their summer holidays have gone, we take a gander at the calendar and realize we need but tear off one more page for the long-awaited PC Leadership election to be upon us. Political watchers are divided about whom the eventual winner might be, but few are proving foolish enough to predict a first ballot victory.
The race seems to have picked up some steam over the past couple of weeks, as Albertans digest the implications of recent polls suggesting that the winner of the race to replace Premier Ed Stelmach won't just be holding the job for a few months, but very likely 5 years or more. It's a real race, to select a real leader who's going to have a real impact.
Game on.Here's what you may have missed since last we spoke...
Gary Mar took a swipe at Alison Redford in a statement he made referencing Edmonton's tragically high murder rate for 2011. His suggestion that the provincial government, and Redford as Justice Minister, didn't follow through on funding the Safe Communities initiative was met with swift rebuttal by Redford, who in turn criticised Mar for (I'm paraphrasing, here) using tragic and senseless crimes to score political points. The 2 took their argument to the airwaves, appearing on the Rutherford radio program last Friday. Both campaigns, not surprisingly, felt their candidate won that showdown. Redford ended the discussion telling Mar "Next time, let's do this on Health Care". Mar's campaign took some heat shortly thereafter when it was alleged a junior team member had called into the program under a false name to lob a softball question at Mar. The campaign, for their part, says nothing like that was ever suggested or authorized, and if it DID happen, it would have been a volunteer who took matters into their own hands.
Later that same day, Redford was endorsed by the Calgary Police Association, which represents almost 2,000 Calgary Police Service members. The organization will not be donating money to Redford, but will encourage members to buy PC Party memberships in order to vote in the leadership race.
Earlier this week, Gary Mar gained the endorsement of current Minister of Education Dave Hancock. This brings the total number of former Ministers of Health on Team Mar to FOUR, with Gary himself, Hancock, Ron Liepert, and Iris Evans. It's enough to make Raj Sherman lose sleep.
Just last night, Rick Orman hosted a reported crowd of several hundred at Wurst Restaurant & Beerhall, a much celebrated new addition to Calgary's dining scene for those of us with "Ober" in our names. ;) The big news coming out of that event was Orman's call for a full operational review of provincial government expenditures. His argument was that the province doesn't have a revenue problem, it has a spending problem (an argument that worked for Ralph Klein when running against the record of the free-spending Getty cabinet, of which Orman had been a member for 7 years).
The candidates all attended the Alberta Teachers' Association Leadership Forum this morning. The reviews were generally positive, though the most muted, polite applause seemed to be directed at former University of Calgary Professor Ted Morton. The OTHER professional educator in the race, former junior high school teacher Doug Griffiths, received boisterous applause and cheering at several points, particularly in his closing statement when he pointed out, in response to an ATA table placard, "...the future, it's why teachers teach... it's also why they run to become Premier".
The 6 candidates will square off again in Ft. McMurray this Thursday, starting at 7 pm. I expect it's a safe bet that Energy and Royalties will be popular topics, and that the Mar/Redford and Orman/Mar jabs of the past few weeks may continue. The forum will be live-streamed on the PC Party Website. I'll be watching the event from Gary Mar's Calgary HQ, and talking to his team for reactions afterwards.
NOTE TO CAMPAIGNS: This (undecided) PCAA member, who writes a blog that a few people read, is only available to watch 2 more forums from your Calgary HQ's - the Medicine Hat and Edmonton forums. The others - Lethbridge, Calgary, and Red Deer - I'll be live-blogging from. You know how to reach me to extend an invite. First-come, first-served. ;)
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
The Race to the Premier's Office - 52 Days to the First Ballot
Nation, this blog isn't going to become JUST about the PC Leadership Race over the next few months... but, it would be stupid and, quite frankly, irresponsible to NOT cover the race which will determine who gets to spend my tax money. That's the nice thing about being a blogger - no Editor telling me what to cover.
There WILL be other topics coming - one in particular on the Democratic Reform proposals recently released by the Alberta Party that is worth looking forward to - but, for now, it's once again "#pcldr Time".
Here's what you might have missed over the past 6 days since the last Leadership Update post...
- The PC's have tweaked some of the rules ahead of their second leadership forum, which takes place tomorrow night in Grande Prairie starting at 7 pm (live streaming on the Alberta PC website). In particular, several of the camps were calling for longer time allowances to flesh out their ideas and vision - adding a minute to their opening statements, doubling the time to answer direct questions and doubling (to 1 minute) the time to rebut. This is thought to benefit Doug Griffiths and Alison Redford in particular, as both had a lot to say at the Vermilion forum and the 30 second rebuttal limit seemed to stymie Alison in particular. The change is considered by some party insiders to be potentially dangerous for perceived frontrunner Gary Mar, whose speaking style in Vermilion seemed focused on the standard 20-second soundbyte (despite his later criticism of the format as not allowing enough time to hold sitting MLA's to account on their records). Stretching those answers out to a minute or longer might throw Mar off his rhythm. Then again, it might not - it's not Gary's first barn dance. I guess we'll all have to tune in to find out.
- Ted Morton has suggested that in order to fund a new arena to host the local hockey heroes, Edmonton might consider a 1% consumption tax. Now, while "those who would use it should pay for it" makes good common sense, it's still worth noting that I got an email a few hours ago from the Ted Morton who ran for the PC Leadership in 2006, appalled that someone using his name and likeness would endorse the idea of creating a new tax.
- The Calgary Herald and Edmonton Journal have commissioned a poll by Environics, which sought the opinions of 900 Albertans from across the province on a number of issues. As far as the PC Leadership race goes, the respondents (who were randomly-chosen Albertans, and not necessarily PC Party members or supporters), indicated their support as follows:
Gary Mar 12.1%
Ted Morton 8%
Alison Redford 6%
Rick Orman 4.7%
Doug Horner 4.7%
Doug Griffiths 1.5%
(quick correction for the Herald folks: Dinning led on the first ballot only in 2006; Stelmach led after the 2nd by almost 500 votes over Dinning, and won on the 3rd).
Now we all know what polls are good for (hint: it involves dogs), but Environics is reputable enough to at least have this sort of result steer some of the otherwise uncommitted donor money in interesting directions.
It's worth noting, more than 6 weeks from the first ballot, that a mere 4 weeks before the Calgary Municipal Election, Ric McIver polled a dominant first-place with 43% of decided supporters, compared to 28% for Barb Higgins and just 8% for eventual winner Naheed Nenshi. So, campaigns matter, and 6 weeks is an eternity in politics. Nenshi overcame a 35-point deficit to win. Even polling last, Griffiths would be in first place with a mere 11-point leap. It's still anyone's ball game. Gary's people know this very well - some of them were working for Ric and Barb.
- Lindsay Blackett, MLA for Calgary-North West and Minister of Culture & Community Spirit, has endorsed Doug Horner for PC Leader. Blackett is Horner's first MLA endorsement from Calgary.
- Peter Sandhu, MLA for Edmonton-Manning, has endorsed Ted Morton. So has Rob Anders.
- Doug Griffiths was the subject of a piece that ran in the Globe & Mail this week. Griffiths, a former teacher himself, is said to be garnering attention from teachers in the province as result of his strong pro-education statements in the first Leadership forum.
- Alison Redford is talking about bringing fresh perspectives to the PC Party, as her tour of Alberta continues.
- Gary Mar released an iPhone app this week. I downloaded it (of course). It's good. You can download it from the iTunes Store.
- Rick Orman wishes he wasn't wasting his time doing the Leadership forums.
There WILL be other topics coming - one in particular on the Democratic Reform proposals recently released by the Alberta Party that is worth looking forward to - but, for now, it's once again "#pcldr Time".
Here's what you might have missed over the past 6 days since the last Leadership Update post...
- The PC's have tweaked some of the rules ahead of their second leadership forum, which takes place tomorrow night in Grande Prairie starting at 7 pm (live streaming on the Alberta PC website). In particular, several of the camps were calling for longer time allowances to flesh out their ideas and vision - adding a minute to their opening statements, doubling the time to answer direct questions and doubling (to 1 minute) the time to rebut. This is thought to benefit Doug Griffiths and Alison Redford in particular, as both had a lot to say at the Vermilion forum and the 30 second rebuttal limit seemed to stymie Alison in particular. The change is considered by some party insiders to be potentially dangerous for perceived frontrunner Gary Mar, whose speaking style in Vermilion seemed focused on the standard 20-second soundbyte (despite his later criticism of the format as not allowing enough time to hold sitting MLA's to account on their records). Stretching those answers out to a minute or longer might throw Mar off his rhythm. Then again, it might not - it's not Gary's first barn dance. I guess we'll all have to tune in to find out.
- Ted Morton has suggested that in order to fund a new arena to host the local hockey heroes, Edmonton might consider a 1% consumption tax. Now, while "those who would use it should pay for it" makes good common sense, it's still worth noting that I got an email a few hours ago from the Ted Morton who ran for the PC Leadership in 2006, appalled that someone using his name and likeness would endorse the idea of creating a new tax.
- The Calgary Herald and Edmonton Journal have commissioned a poll by Environics, which sought the opinions of 900 Albertans from across the province on a number of issues. As far as the PC Leadership race goes, the respondents (who were randomly-chosen Albertans, and not necessarily PC Party members or supporters), indicated their support as follows:
Gary Mar 12.1%
Ted Morton 8%
Alison Redford 6%
Rick Orman 4.7%
Doug Horner 4.7%
Doug Griffiths 1.5%
(quick correction for the Herald folks: Dinning led on the first ballot only in 2006; Stelmach led after the 2nd by almost 500 votes over Dinning, and won on the 3rd).
Now we all know what polls are good for (hint: it involves dogs), but Environics is reputable enough to at least have this sort of result steer some of the otherwise uncommitted donor money in interesting directions.
It's worth noting, more than 6 weeks from the first ballot, that a mere 4 weeks before the Calgary Municipal Election, Ric McIver polled a dominant first-place with 43% of decided supporters, compared to 28% for Barb Higgins and just 8% for eventual winner Naheed Nenshi. So, campaigns matter, and 6 weeks is an eternity in politics. Nenshi overcame a 35-point deficit to win. Even polling last, Griffiths would be in first place with a mere 11-point leap. It's still anyone's ball game. Gary's people know this very well - some of them were working for Ric and Barb.
- Lindsay Blackett, MLA for Calgary-North West and Minister of Culture & Community Spirit, has endorsed Doug Horner for PC Leader. Blackett is Horner's first MLA endorsement from Calgary.
- Peter Sandhu, MLA for Edmonton-Manning, has endorsed Ted Morton. So has Rob Anders.
- Doug Griffiths was the subject of a piece that ran in the Globe & Mail this week. Griffiths, a former teacher himself, is said to be garnering attention from teachers in the province as result of his strong pro-education statements in the first Leadership forum.
- Alison Redford is talking about bringing fresh perspectives to the PC Party, as her tour of Alberta continues.
- Gary Mar released an iPhone app this week. I downloaded it (of course). It's good. You can download it from the iTunes Store.
- Rick Orman wishes he wasn't wasting his time doing the Leadership forums.
Thursday, July 21, 2011
The Race to the Premier's Office - 58 Days to the First Ballot
Nation, the race to replace Ed Stelmach as leader of the Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta is now, by any measure, under way. While nominations opened in mid-June, it was just 6 days ago that the nomination period ended. All 6 previously declared candidates had their paperwork and deposits accepted by the party, and they will appear on the first ballot.
I thought I'd take a quick spin through the candidates, and see what it is that they and their campaigns have been doing to this point to try and capture the imagination of the members of the PCAA - and, by extension, the people of Alberta.
In alphabetical order, by first name...
Alison Redford made a heck of a good impression on my 9 year-old niece. She's now torn between being a ballerina, a doctor, or the Premier of Alberta when she grows up. As I tweeted at the time "it would seem 'hope' is contagious".
Redford has spent a lot of time early in her campaign in Fort McMurray, and talking Energy. One of her most recent announcements was her position that Alberta should take the lead in developing a Canadian Energy Strategy. From her press release:
The focus on the Energy sector is an interesting one for Redford, given that one of her opponents has worked in the oilpatch for 2 decades, and another has the backing of Alberta's current Minister of Energy. She's definitely giving the impression that she's in this fight to win it, however, by taking the fight to them instead of waiting for their own releases and then responding. It's a strategy reminiscent of the Nenshi "Big Ideas" in the Calgary municipal campaign, which shouldn't be surprising considering Alison's campaign is being run by former Team Nenshi big wheel Stephen Carter. Alison again channelled her inner Naheed when she challenged Gary Mar to a one-on-one Health Care debate, "any time, any place". It's hard to turn down challenges like that without looking like you're running away - ask the perceived front-runners in Calgary's mayoral race how that turned out for them after the votes were counted.
Incidentally... Alison: I challenge you to take me out to lunch. Any food truck of your choosing. I await your response. ;)
Doug Griffiths has been quietly buzzing from living room to living room, making use of the best resource he has at his disposal: Doug Griffiths. Much-rumoured to be short on cash, Griffiths finds himself without the resources to be shuttled around the province in a giant motorcoach with his face plastered on the side of it, so he's going back to his roots: Talking with people, about what they think matters. Doug's focus has been generational: He's asking people how to build an Alberta for their grandkids to enjoy.
The early knock against Griffiths was that he was "too young and inexperienced" to run the province. The rebuttal to those criticisms was typically good-natured, though no less on-target: Doug is the same age as Danielle Smith, and has been an MLA working for the people of Alberta for 9 years - that's 9 years longer than Smith, the "Premier-in-Waiting" of Wildrose lore. Subsequent criticisms have tried to paint him as an "insider, unable to change". Anyone who has paid attention to the inner workings of the PC Caucus would tell you, Griffiths was about as likely to get a full cabinet appointment as blogger Dave Cournoyer. As a former school teacher, Griffiths keeps education policy close to his heart. Speaking to the Calgary Herald about recent job cuts in education, Doug was quoted:
Griffiths is going to have to visit a lot of living rooms and convert a lot of undecided Albertans into proselytizing Griffiths Supporters in order to make up the ever-widening gap between what he needs to do to win, and what he can afford to do. He's been the most personal of the candidates to this point - folks who ran into him at Stampede breakfasts remarked over and over to me about how genuine he seems - and he gets full marks for doing all of his own Tweeting and blogging rather than farming it out to staffers (his campaign staff, from Campaign Manager on down, is entirely comprised of volunteers). The question is, can Griffiths - easily one of the most tech-savvy and approachable MLA's, from any party - translate "Tweeps" into "votes"?
Doug Horner has been collecting so many endorsements from MLA's and Cabinet Ministers he's probably keeping his "doubles" in a shoe box to trade to other kids or put in the spokes of his bike. At last count, Horner had the endorsement of no less than 12 of his caucus colleagues, including Speaker Ken Kowalski and sweetest-woman-on-earth Genia Leskiw.
Part of the problem for Horner at this point, though, is that 9 of those endorsements are coming from what most would term "northern Alberta" - which is to say, from constituencies north of Edmonton. The PC Party has traditionally favoured an unofficial system where the leadership would alternate between the north and south - and if this pattern holds, the PC power-brokers in Calgary are going to be working hard to keep Horner out.
The knock against Horner has been his strong ties to the outgoing Premier - indeed, it's been suggested that Horner comes as a package deal with Stelmach's Chief of Staff Ron Glen and most of his northern and rural party connections, as well as with his policies themselves. Doug hasn't gone to a whole lot of effort to criticize the past decisions or direction of government, either - rightly perceiving that it would be a tough sell to convince voters that the former Deputy Premier was opposed to the decisions that were being made around the cabinet table.
Rather than focus on his own past, though, Horner has come out with an impressive list of policies. Most recently, he postulated about the value of Alberta coming up with its own immigration policy, much as Quebec currently does, in order to address workforce shortages. As one Horner supporter put it to me:
Gary Mar has been spreading so much orange across Alberta in his motor coach that he probably owes Sunkist royalty fees. Mar's rolling in caucus endorsements - 17 so far - and in donations. While the exact numbers aren't yet available, he certainly seems to be SPENDING the most, at any rate. The mainstream media line has been that Gary is running a "General Election-style campaign", and it's hard to argue that point.
Of course, being the perceived front-runner in a campaign has its drawbacks - just ask Jim Dinning. It paints a big, fat "bull's eye" on your back. While Mar spent the last 3 years working to advance Alberta's interests in Washington, that hasn't stopped one of his opponents from trying to paint him as a Stelmach lackey - despite the fact that the height of Mar's previous political influence was under the Premiership not of Ed Stelmach, but rather of Ralph Klein. Another opponent has challenged Gary - a former Minister of Health, let's recall - to a Health Care debate "any time, any place".
This attention, though, certainly seems to not be affecting Gary's ability to have a good time. One of the high points of the leadership race thus far, in my opinion, is the "Cooking With Gary: Flank Steak" video his team did up. I haven't tried it myself - can't get past the fish sauce. But the video shows us a side of Gary Mar that we wouldn't otherwise have gotten to peek at - and if anyone tries to tell you that these politicians are exactly the same when they're relaxed as they are when they're in Question Period, just smack them upside the head, L. Jethro Gibbs-style.
I have heard quiet criticisms from some PC's - both inside and outside of other campaigns - that Mar's backstage team is running some pretty grungy, old-school political manoeuvres. In a vacuum, I'm inclined to dismiss such allegations as tripe. There are a lot of people I know who are actively working on Gary's campaign who are of the highest calibre and class. I have all the respect in the world for these people, and don't believe they'd be party to such garbage. But I'm not talking about merely one or two rumours from competing camps... IF this kind of stuff is going on, I've got to believe that Gary, and most of his team for that matter, are completely unaware. As he himself wrote on his campaign blog:
Rick Orman is not in this race to make friends. If there was any doubt as to this fact, his recently released campaign cartoons painting Ed Stelmach as a hapless dupe and Orman's 5 opponents as a gang of backstabbers should make his position crystal clear.
Orman has spent a lot of time, effort and money suggesting that the current PC Party has strayed from its founding principles. In particular, he lists "Fiscal and Economic Responsibility" as the first of those principles (just as they appear on the PC Alberta website). His critics are quick to point out that, while he served in cabinet under Premier Don Getty, Alberta's debt doubled, and per capita spending was the highest in Canada by over a thousand dollars per year, even after a nearly 30% drop in provincial revenues (source). Orman, to this point, hasn't explained why it was okay when he was in cabinet, but it was grossly inappropriate when he was in the oilpatch and other people were in cabinet.
On the "Issues" section of his website, Rick makes his feelings pretty clear. On most of the issues he addresses, the PC Party is just flat-out screwing up (in his view). The only issue that doesn't include a criticism of the current government is Education. Really and truly, and I'm not saying this for hyperbole's sake, it reads like the website of someone who's trying to get the PC's kicked out of office. I can fully understand the desire to "re-make the party" - continuous evolution is what has allowed the PC's to hold power for so long in Alberta. Without that generational change, they'd already be gone. But running for the leadership by saying "you've all screwed this up, and I'm here to fix it" is a tough sell. Especially for someone who supported (eventual Liberal leader) Nancy Betkowski over Ralph Klein in the 1993 leadership race. Are we to believe the last good leader the PC's had was Getty?
It doesn't make sense to me, but maybe it's not supposed to. If Rick spends his money wisely, and runs a good Get Out The Vote operation on September 17th, then he could have an impact here. And if those people he brings to the party - be they from the Wildrose or from somewhere else entirely - stay involved in the party going forward, then he'll get the change he so fervently preaches in favour of. The question is: Will the Klein and Stelmach-era PC's still feel welcome? Or will Rick change the locks?
Ted Morton stayed relatively quiet in his leadership campaign until the race was officially underway, out of respect for Premier Stelmach, and this is very much to his credit. Also to the Professor's credit is that he seems to have learned some very hard-earned lessons from his last run for the party leadership in 2006. Ted is staying focused on policy. And, unlike 2006, he's making it really hard to look at him as the boogeyman of the PC leadership race, because so many of his policies just flat-out make sense. I mean, I just read his entire page on Democratic Renewal, and there wasn't a single thing - not a SINGLE THING - on that page that I disagreed with.
Granted, it's easier to grasp some of Ted's policies if you were already leaning far enough to the right that your Friendly Neighbourhood Red Tory (that's me) would suggest you see a chiropractor - but, the reality of this race is that the people who leaned left likely weren't going to vote for Ted anyhow. He knows his market.
And SPEAKING of that market - Ted Morton has either hired an absolutely brilliant polling firm that is getting down to the brass tacks on what his likely voters care about, or he's totally off his rocker (I'd think the first option is more likely). Ted's 2 big newsmaking items over the past few weeks have been to defend Alberta's rodeo heritage (I hadn't realized some of the leadership candidates were, in fact, ANTI-rodeo, but I guess it must be so) and to show off his Vanity Plate proposal, to boost awareness of conservation efforts. Again: Ted knows his market. You've got to play to your strengths, and Ted's strength is rural populism and his years-long tenure as Minister of Sustainable Resource Development - which means he was on Page 3 of everyone's hunting regulations, for years.
Morton is also one of only 2 candidates to have garnered significant MLA endorsements from both Calgary AND Edmonton, as well as rural Alberta. Now, an MLA endorsement doesn't mean much if you live on the other side of the province... but if you live in Calgary-Egmont or Edmonton-Calder and you're a very involved PC member in your area, then the fact that your MLA is endorsing Ted Morton gives you a reason to take a look at him. And in the more populous areas, with more members on the rolls, that can make all the difference.
There's a lot we don't know about Ted's chances just yet. But the one thing we DO know? An older model blue van will quite possibly be involved. You heard it here first. ;)
The first PC Leadership Forum takes place in Vermilion tonight at 7:00 pm. This forum - and all of the forums - will be live streamed across the province and the world via the PC Alberta website. Tune in and watch these 6 closely - one of them WILL be the Premier of Alberta on October 2nd.
I thought I'd take a quick spin through the candidates, and see what it is that they and their campaigns have been doing to this point to try and capture the imagination of the members of the PCAA - and, by extension, the people of Alberta.
In alphabetical order, by first name...
Alison Redford made a heck of a good impression on my 9 year-old niece. She's now torn between being a ballerina, a doctor, or the Premier of Alberta when she grows up. As I tweeted at the time "it would seem 'hope' is contagious".
Redford has spent a lot of time early in her campaign in Fort McMurray, and talking Energy. One of her most recent announcements was her position that Alberta should take the lead in developing a Canadian Energy Strategy. From her press release:
"We need to take the lead on this issue," says Redford. "It is not leadership to that say we need to be afraid of Ottawa imposing environmental standards on our province. We have the opportunity to work with both Stephen Harper's government and industry to establish world standards in environmental protection. Albertans know more about this issue than virtually anyone in the world. Let's use that knowledge to set standards that we know are practical and effective."
The focus on the Energy sector is an interesting one for Redford, given that one of her opponents has worked in the oilpatch for 2 decades, and another has the backing of Alberta's current Minister of Energy. She's definitely giving the impression that she's in this fight to win it, however, by taking the fight to them instead of waiting for their own releases and then responding. It's a strategy reminiscent of the Nenshi "Big Ideas" in the Calgary municipal campaign, which shouldn't be surprising considering Alison's campaign is being run by former Team Nenshi big wheel Stephen Carter. Alison again channelled her inner Naheed when she challenged Gary Mar to a one-on-one Health Care debate, "any time, any place". It's hard to turn down challenges like that without looking like you're running away - ask the perceived front-runners in Calgary's mayoral race how that turned out for them after the votes were counted.
Incidentally... Alison: I challenge you to take me out to lunch. Any food truck of your choosing. I await your response. ;)
Doug Griffiths has been quietly buzzing from living room to living room, making use of the best resource he has at his disposal: Doug Griffiths. Much-rumoured to be short on cash, Griffiths finds himself without the resources to be shuttled around the province in a giant motorcoach with his face plastered on the side of it, so he's going back to his roots: Talking with people, about what they think matters. Doug's focus has been generational: He's asking people how to build an Alberta for their grandkids to enjoy.
The early knock against Griffiths was that he was "too young and inexperienced" to run the province. The rebuttal to those criticisms was typically good-natured, though no less on-target: Doug is the same age as Danielle Smith, and has been an MLA working for the people of Alberta for 9 years - that's 9 years longer than Smith, the "Premier-in-Waiting" of Wildrose lore. Subsequent criticisms have tried to paint him as an "insider, unable to change". Anyone who has paid attention to the inner workings of the PC Caucus would tell you, Griffiths was about as likely to get a full cabinet appointment as blogger Dave Cournoyer. As a former school teacher, Griffiths keeps education policy close to his heart. Speaking to the Calgary Herald about recent job cuts in education, Doug was quoted:
"The best way to transform our economy and ensure our success for generations to come is to make sure we have the best education system from kindergarten to post-secondary and all the research and development components that go with it," Griffiths said.
Griffiths is going to have to visit a lot of living rooms and convert a lot of undecided Albertans into proselytizing Griffiths Supporters in order to make up the ever-widening gap between what he needs to do to win, and what he can afford to do. He's been the most personal of the candidates to this point - folks who ran into him at Stampede breakfasts remarked over and over to me about how genuine he seems - and he gets full marks for doing all of his own Tweeting and blogging rather than farming it out to staffers (his campaign staff, from Campaign Manager on down, is entirely comprised of volunteers). The question is, can Griffiths - easily one of the most tech-savvy and approachable MLA's, from any party - translate "Tweeps" into "votes"?
Doug Horner has been collecting so many endorsements from MLA's and Cabinet Ministers he's probably keeping his "doubles" in a shoe box to trade to other kids or put in the spokes of his bike. At last count, Horner had the endorsement of no less than 12 of his caucus colleagues, including Speaker Ken Kowalski and sweetest-woman-on-earth Genia Leskiw.
Part of the problem for Horner at this point, though, is that 9 of those endorsements are coming from what most would term "northern Alberta" - which is to say, from constituencies north of Edmonton. The PC Party has traditionally favoured an unofficial system where the leadership would alternate between the north and south - and if this pattern holds, the PC power-brokers in Calgary are going to be working hard to keep Horner out.
The knock against Horner has been his strong ties to the outgoing Premier - indeed, it's been suggested that Horner comes as a package deal with Stelmach's Chief of Staff Ron Glen and most of his northern and rural party connections, as well as with his policies themselves. Doug hasn't gone to a whole lot of effort to criticize the past decisions or direction of government, either - rightly perceiving that it would be a tough sell to convince voters that the former Deputy Premier was opposed to the decisions that were being made around the cabinet table.
Rather than focus on his own past, though, Horner has come out with an impressive list of policies. Most recently, he postulated about the value of Alberta coming up with its own immigration policy, much as Quebec currently does, in order to address workforce shortages. As one Horner supporter put it to me:
"You need more doctors, but they don't grow on trees. They train perfectly good doctors in India, Poland and the Philippines, though - so why wouldn't we try to get them to come to Coaldale or Athabasca instead of Vancouver or Montreal?"
Gary Mar has been spreading so much orange across Alberta in his motor coach that he probably owes Sunkist royalty fees. Mar's rolling in caucus endorsements - 17 so far - and in donations. While the exact numbers aren't yet available, he certainly seems to be SPENDING the most, at any rate. The mainstream media line has been that Gary is running a "General Election-style campaign", and it's hard to argue that point.
Of course, being the perceived front-runner in a campaign has its drawbacks - just ask Jim Dinning. It paints a big, fat "bull's eye" on your back. While Mar spent the last 3 years working to advance Alberta's interests in Washington, that hasn't stopped one of his opponents from trying to paint him as a Stelmach lackey - despite the fact that the height of Mar's previous political influence was under the Premiership not of Ed Stelmach, but rather of Ralph Klein. Another opponent has challenged Gary - a former Minister of Health, let's recall - to a Health Care debate "any time, any place".
This attention, though, certainly seems to not be affecting Gary's ability to have a good time. One of the high points of the leadership race thus far, in my opinion, is the "Cooking With Gary: Flank Steak" video his team did up. I haven't tried it myself - can't get past the fish sauce. But the video shows us a side of Gary Mar that we wouldn't otherwise have gotten to peek at - and if anyone tries to tell you that these politicians are exactly the same when they're relaxed as they are when they're in Question Period, just smack them upside the head, L. Jethro Gibbs-style.
I have heard quiet criticisms from some PC's - both inside and outside of other campaigns - that Mar's backstage team is running some pretty grungy, old-school political manoeuvres. In a vacuum, I'm inclined to dismiss such allegations as tripe. There are a lot of people I know who are actively working on Gary's campaign who are of the highest calibre and class. I have all the respect in the world for these people, and don't believe they'd be party to such garbage. But I'm not talking about merely one or two rumours from competing camps... IF this kind of stuff is going on, I've got to believe that Gary, and most of his team for that matter, are completely unaware. As he himself wrote on his campaign blog:
We must remember why we are candidates in this Progressive Conservative leadership race. It’s because we care about the Party and we care about Alberta. I care deeply. So let’s talk openly, let’s be transparent and let’s be inclusive. Each and every candidate brings a unique perspective and the best Alberta will be built by hearing from all points of view.Mar is the man to catch at this point... but 58 days is a long time. 58 days ago Anthony Weiner was a shoo-in to win re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives, if he didn't decide to run for - and very possibly win - the Mayor's job in New York City. Now, he's a punchline. Gary's a smart man - he won't take his foot off the gas. The question is: Does anyone else have the horsepower to catch him?
Rick Orman is not in this race to make friends. If there was any doubt as to this fact, his recently released campaign cartoons painting Ed Stelmach as a hapless dupe and Orman's 5 opponents as a gang of backstabbers should make his position crystal clear.
Orman has spent a lot of time, effort and money suggesting that the current PC Party has strayed from its founding principles. In particular, he lists "Fiscal and Economic Responsibility" as the first of those principles (just as they appear on the PC Alberta website). His critics are quick to point out that, while he served in cabinet under Premier Don Getty, Alberta's debt doubled, and per capita spending was the highest in Canada by over a thousand dollars per year, even after a nearly 30% drop in provincial revenues (source). Orman, to this point, hasn't explained why it was okay when he was in cabinet, but it was grossly inappropriate when he was in the oilpatch and other people were in cabinet.
On the "Issues" section of his website, Rick makes his feelings pretty clear. On most of the issues he addresses, the PC Party is just flat-out screwing up (in his view). The only issue that doesn't include a criticism of the current government is Education. Really and truly, and I'm not saying this for hyperbole's sake, it reads like the website of someone who's trying to get the PC's kicked out of office. I can fully understand the desire to "re-make the party" - continuous evolution is what has allowed the PC's to hold power for so long in Alberta. Without that generational change, they'd already be gone. But running for the leadership by saying "you've all screwed this up, and I'm here to fix it" is a tough sell. Especially for someone who supported (eventual Liberal leader) Nancy Betkowski over Ralph Klein in the 1993 leadership race. Are we to believe the last good leader the PC's had was Getty?
It doesn't make sense to me, but maybe it's not supposed to. If Rick spends his money wisely, and runs a good Get Out The Vote operation on September 17th, then he could have an impact here. And if those people he brings to the party - be they from the Wildrose or from somewhere else entirely - stay involved in the party going forward, then he'll get the change he so fervently preaches in favour of. The question is: Will the Klein and Stelmach-era PC's still feel welcome? Or will Rick change the locks?
Ted Morton stayed relatively quiet in his leadership campaign until the race was officially underway, out of respect for Premier Stelmach, and this is very much to his credit. Also to the Professor's credit is that he seems to have learned some very hard-earned lessons from his last run for the party leadership in 2006. Ted is staying focused on policy. And, unlike 2006, he's making it really hard to look at him as the boogeyman of the PC leadership race, because so many of his policies just flat-out make sense. I mean, I just read his entire page on Democratic Renewal, and there wasn't a single thing - not a SINGLE THING - on that page that I disagreed with.
Granted, it's easier to grasp some of Ted's policies if you were already leaning far enough to the right that your Friendly Neighbourhood Red Tory (that's me) would suggest you see a chiropractor - but, the reality of this race is that the people who leaned left likely weren't going to vote for Ted anyhow. He knows his market.
And SPEAKING of that market - Ted Morton has either hired an absolutely brilliant polling firm that is getting down to the brass tacks on what his likely voters care about, or he's totally off his rocker (I'd think the first option is more likely). Ted's 2 big newsmaking items over the past few weeks have been to defend Alberta's rodeo heritage (I hadn't realized some of the leadership candidates were, in fact, ANTI-rodeo, but I guess it must be so) and to show off his Vanity Plate proposal, to boost awareness of conservation efforts. Again: Ted knows his market. You've got to play to your strengths, and Ted's strength is rural populism and his years-long tenure as Minister of Sustainable Resource Development - which means he was on Page 3 of everyone's hunting regulations, for years.
Morton is also one of only 2 candidates to have garnered significant MLA endorsements from both Calgary AND Edmonton, as well as rural Alberta. Now, an MLA endorsement doesn't mean much if you live on the other side of the province... but if you live in Calgary-Egmont or Edmonton-Calder and you're a very involved PC member in your area, then the fact that your MLA is endorsing Ted Morton gives you a reason to take a look at him. And in the more populous areas, with more members on the rolls, that can make all the difference.
There's a lot we don't know about Ted's chances just yet. But the one thing we DO know? An older model blue van will quite possibly be involved. You heard it here first. ;)
The first PC Leadership Forum takes place in Vermilion tonight at 7:00 pm. This forum - and all of the forums - will be live streamed across the province and the world via the PC Alberta website. Tune in and watch these 6 closely - one of them WILL be the Premier of Alberta on October 2nd.
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
"The Next Premier of Alberta"
Nation, I've been watching with interest as the mainstream media began to notice that there was, in fact, a leadership race going on within the Alberta PC Party.
I admit to experiencing some level of schadenfreude as I watch some not-quite-ready-for-primetime-members of the Wildrose Party (nee Wildrose Alliance) - some of whom are nominated, or are contesting nominations to be elected Members of the Legislative Assembly - talk about their leader as "the Next Premier of Alberta".
In the days and weeks since the leadership race became official, I've begun to hear a rising sentiment among my PC friends that there are, in fact, multiple factors at play that might radically alter their choice by late September. Some of those factors include:
... and, one question that I've started to hear more and more: Which candidate would be able to hold the party together if it lost the next election, and help it rebuild? (My answer? I seriously doubt that the PC Party could survive an election loss. The coalition between populists and progressives was built in an absence of other options, and held together by success. Lose that glue, and the members would disperse among the other options on the political landscape.)
There's a feeling in some PC circles that the best thing that can happen to the party is for it to lose an election, and spend 4 years on the other side of the Legislature. Losing has a way of flushing out the people who are just hanging out with you because you're a winner. It shows you who your true friends are. And it forces you to closely examine what it is you're doing wrong that led to your defeat - and let's be honest: A lot of PC Party members are still so completely convinced that the party has never once made a mistake that it would make your head spin. I'm not saying those people are in the MAJORITY - but they're certainly still around.
The complication facing party members is that the names they come up with in response to the questions posed above are often consistent from one party member to the next, but vary wildly from one question to the next. For example, most people would answer that Rick Orman and Ted Morton are the best candidates to avoid being labeled as "Phony Conservatives" by opposition parties, but those same people admit that they're hardly the best choices to bridge the "progressive/conservative" fault in the party's membership base. Likewise, Gary Mar is clearly a fundraiser of rare ability, but it's hard for some party members to see a lot of party renewal in the cards under a successful Mar leadership bid, considering the large number of entrenched, multi-term incumbent MLA's backing him.
The long and short of it is, there's no "perfect candidate" - no obvious first choice, who can deal with all of the issues raised above.
So, the question PC members need to ask themselves as the summer BBQ circuit hits full-stride, and pancake breakfast season begins, is: Which of the above points matter MOST to me?
Do I really care if the new leader can beat Danielle Smith? Or is it more important to me that the party renews itself before dying a slow, atrophic death?
Is it more important to pick someone with business connections who can raise money? Or is it more important to pick someone who can appeal to common Albertans around a kitchen table rather than a boardroom table?
The choice is a tough one, for the party members, because they need to examine what they REALLY value, and that includes being honest with themselves about where the party has gone wrong, in their view.
Decide what's important to you.
Don't let me, or any other blogger, or the media tell you what you care about, or who the "legitimate contenders" are.
Decide for yourself: What matters to me?
Then come back here or visit some of the other great Albertan political blogs, read about what these candidates are saying, and decide which candidate makes the most sense, and which one you trust the most on the issues that you care the most about.
That's democracy, folks. That's the way this whole thing works. That's how you choose the Next Premier of Alberta.
- Savage out.
I admit to experiencing some level of schadenfreude as I watch some not-quite-ready-for-primetime-members of the Wildrose Party (nee Wildrose Alliance) - some of whom are nominated, or are contesting nominations to be elected Members of the Legislative Assembly - talk about their leader as "the Next Premier of Alberta".
Here's a tip, gang - if you want to run the Legislative affairs of the Province of Alberta, take the time to learn how our system of government works. The only way Danielle Smith can be the next Premier of Alberta is if she wins the PC Leadership race this fall. Failing that, someone ELSE will be sworn in on October 2nd, or before.All that aside, though, I want to talk today about the choice that faces members of the Progressive Conservatives as they choose the person who will, in FACT, be the next Premier of Alberta - and how that choice affects not only die-hard PC's and their party's future prospects, but all of us as Albertans.
I don't expect members of the general public to understand this part of our arcane, centuries-old system of governance... but a candidate for provincial office who doesn't understand this is akin to a mechanic who insists that your car's electrical system can be fixed by pumping the tires and lubricating the door hinges... you just might want to reconsider your choice of mechanic.
In the days and weeks since the leadership race became official, I've begun to hear a rising sentiment among my PC friends that there are, in fact, multiple factors at play that might radically alter their choice by late September. Some of those factors include:
- Which candidate can best unify the party's progressive & conservative wings, north & south wings, rural and urban wings?
- Which candidate can renew the party and inspire a new generation of young PC's to replace the stalwarts from the Lougheed era?
- Which candidate can raise the funds required to wage an election campaign within a year of assuming the Premier's office?
- Which candidate can capture the imagination of the Alberta public, and win an election?
- Which candidate can out-duel Danielle Smith, Brian Mason, Glenn Taylor and the eventual winner of the Liberal race in a debate and in a campaign?
- Which candidate will best be able to thwart efforts by the other parties to paint the PC Party as hopelessly left of centre, or hopelessly out of touch in the minds of the Alberta voters?
- Which candidate will represent enough of a change from the status quo to satisfy voters who were less than impressed with the Stelmach years?
- Which candidate would make the best Premier, whether that be for 6 months or 15 years?
... and, one question that I've started to hear more and more: Which candidate would be able to hold the party together if it lost the next election, and help it rebuild? (My answer? I seriously doubt that the PC Party could survive an election loss. The coalition between populists and progressives was built in an absence of other options, and held together by success. Lose that glue, and the members would disperse among the other options on the political landscape.)
There's a feeling in some PC circles that the best thing that can happen to the party is for it to lose an election, and spend 4 years on the other side of the Legislature. Losing has a way of flushing out the people who are just hanging out with you because you're a winner. It shows you who your true friends are. And it forces you to closely examine what it is you're doing wrong that led to your defeat - and let's be honest: A lot of PC Party members are still so completely convinced that the party has never once made a mistake that it would make your head spin. I'm not saying those people are in the MAJORITY - but they're certainly still around.
The complication facing party members is that the names they come up with in response to the questions posed above are often consistent from one party member to the next, but vary wildly from one question to the next. For example, most people would answer that Rick Orman and Ted Morton are the best candidates to avoid being labeled as "Phony Conservatives" by opposition parties, but those same people admit that they're hardly the best choices to bridge the "progressive/conservative" fault in the party's membership base. Likewise, Gary Mar is clearly a fundraiser of rare ability, but it's hard for some party members to see a lot of party renewal in the cards under a successful Mar leadership bid, considering the large number of entrenched, multi-term incumbent MLA's backing him.
The long and short of it is, there's no "perfect candidate" - no obvious first choice, who can deal with all of the issues raised above.
So, the question PC members need to ask themselves as the summer BBQ circuit hits full-stride, and pancake breakfast season begins, is: Which of the above points matter MOST to me?
Do I really care if the new leader can beat Danielle Smith? Or is it more important to me that the party renews itself before dying a slow, atrophic death?
Is it more important to pick someone with business connections who can raise money? Or is it more important to pick someone who can appeal to common Albertans around a kitchen table rather than a boardroom table?
The choice is a tough one, for the party members, because they need to examine what they REALLY value, and that includes being honest with themselves about where the party has gone wrong, in their view.
No matter what happens, there are going to be a lot of people who are disappointed that their first choice didn't win. There are going to be fences that need mending. The party is going to need time to heal. So these assertions that the PC's are planning a fall election within weeks of choosing a leader are simply preposterous. The new leader is going to have dozens of nomination contests to approve and sign off on, and that doesn't even give the successful candidates time to door-knock ahead of a fall date. If the new leader holds an election in 2011, it will be because he or she has decided they want to maximize their chances of LOSING said election. A desire on the part of that leader which is, at best, unlikely.I'd encourage Albertans of all political stripes - or of none - to pay attention to the policy planks being rolled out over the summer by the various candidates. You can buy a PC membership for $5 through the party website, if you want to vote in the leadership race. Remember: The winner of this race WILL be Premier, for months if not longer. There's absolutely no doubt as to that fact. So, you have a rare chance to directly elect the person who will be setting government priorities and a budget. Making decisions that affect you and your family, and spending your tax dollars.
Decide what's important to you.
Don't let me, or any other blogger, or the media tell you what you care about, or who the "legitimate contenders" are.
Decide for yourself: What matters to me?
Then come back here or visit some of the other great Albertan political blogs, read about what these candidates are saying, and decide which candidate makes the most sense, and which one you trust the most on the issues that you care the most about.
That's democracy, folks. That's the way this whole thing works. That's how you choose the Next Premier of Alberta.
- Savage out.
The PC Leadership Contenders (alphabetical by surname):
Some great blogs that talk Alberta politics, covering the PC Leadership:
Sunday, June 5, 2011
Video: Interview with PC Leadership candidate Doug Griffiths
Nation, in early February I had a chance to sit down with Doug Griffiths, MLA for Battle River-Wainwright, to talk about his vision for the province of Alberta going forward. Griffiths had announced only the day before that he would be seeking the PC leadership, and his team had quickly set up a "Social Media Breakfast", which was attended by several blogging luminaries from the Calgary area.
Turns out they had a spare seat, so I was invited, too. ;)
Griffiths will be getting the "Full Savaging" later on, in terms of a full candidate profile (as will ALL of the PC Leadership contenders), but considering I finally figured out how to fix the "brightness" issue on the video I recorded (too bad I couldn't fix the "stammering interviewer" issue, but Microsoft Movie Maker only lets you do so much), I thought it better to get the video up sooner, rather than later.
I want to make it clear that, as always, my coverage of these contenders should not in any way be construed as an endorsement. I am willing - HAPPY, in fact - to meet with every PC Leadership candidate - Liberal leadership contenders too, for that matter - when they're in the Calgary area. Informed voters make better choices, and I want Albertans of ALL political stripes to make the best choices possible, so consider this an open invitation. I don't mind putting the work in, if it helps my fellow citizens make their decisions. I'm working on scheduling with the Mar and Redford camps right now. Everyone else - I'm easy to find. (Hint: Email's in my blogger profile)
So, without any further ado... Heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeere's Griffiths (in 2 parts due to duration limits, works out to JUST over 15 minutes)...
Turns out they had a spare seat, so I was invited, too. ;)
Griffiths will be getting the "Full Savaging" later on, in terms of a full candidate profile (as will ALL of the PC Leadership contenders), but considering I finally figured out how to fix the "brightness" issue on the video I recorded (too bad I couldn't fix the "stammering interviewer" issue, but Microsoft Movie Maker only lets you do so much), I thought it better to get the video up sooner, rather than later.
I want to make it clear that, as always, my coverage of these contenders should not in any way be construed as an endorsement. I am willing - HAPPY, in fact - to meet with every PC Leadership candidate - Liberal leadership contenders too, for that matter - when they're in the Calgary area. Informed voters make better choices, and I want Albertans of ALL political stripes to make the best choices possible, so consider this an open invitation. I don't mind putting the work in, if it helps my fellow citizens make their decisions. I'm working on scheduling with the Mar and Redford camps right now. Everyone else - I'm easy to find. (Hint: Email's in my blogger profile)
So, without any further ado... Heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeere's Griffiths (in 2 parts due to duration limits, works out to JUST over 15 minutes)...
Sunday, May 29, 2011
When Free Speech Crosses The Line
You all know I'm a man with opinions.
I have ideas that are in keeping with the political party I've chosen to support. I have ideas that are very different, and I defend them vociferously. I'm always happy to debate those ideas, and listen to the ideas of others.
Sometimes, though, it's not possible to come to an agreement. Sometimes, you have to agree to disagree. Sometimes, the other person isn't interested in compromise. Heck, sometimes - very rarely - I'm not interested in compromise. And so you end in a stand-off. This is the reality of adult conversation.
I've long been opposed to the co-opting of public figures' images, names or internet identities for partisan gain under the guise of "satire". I didn't like it when Ed Stelmach's domain name was snapped up. I didn't like it when fake Stelmach and Ted Morton id's popped up on Twitter. Those are elected officials, and they're fair game for criticism. I get that. Bloggers are no less public, and that's by our choice. We choose to step out of the shadows, stand on a soap-box, and proclaim our thoughts to the masses. So, we're fair game for disagreement at all times, and for ridicule when we deserve it.
All that said, though, it's still not okay in my mind to co-opt someone's identity to try and embarrass them. So it was with great trepidation that I saw recently someone had started a fake account on Twitter for my friend and fellow blogger Christina Rontynen. Christina did a great job of turning the other cheek, and even considered it something of a badge of honour that she had been considered a big enough threat to have warranted a "spoof account". This reaction denied the offender that which they were most probably seeking: The chance to be hurtful to the object of their scorn and ridicule.
My disgust at the appearance this weekend of a hideously named Twitter account meant to ridicule Jane Morgan is palpable. I know that, as a staunch advocate of free speech, Jane is going to let this roll off her back like water on a duck. But the clearly degrading language used to describe this earnest and passionate Albertan is completely unacceptable in a civilized society. The account suggests it may be the work of someone in her own party, but that could just as easily be a red herring. Whether the account is related to the Wildrose nomination battle in Calgary-Klein (nee North Hill), a result of someone from another partisan bent trying to get their shots in anonymously, or just some coward with a keyboard and a lot of free time is beside the point. It's name-calling in an attempt to be hurtful. It's something children do. And my friend Jane is many things - but "childish" is not one of them. She won't give this coward the satisfaction.
I have had the pleasure of meeting many of the political bloggers here in Alberta, from across the entire political spectrum. I count some of them - regardless of their affiliation - among my closer friends. We disagree on many things - but we disagree and debate those differences with respect, and in full sentences. It was a pleasant shock to me that when many of us were invited by Wildrose Alliance blogger The Alberta Altruist to join him in a suite at the Saddledome for a Calgary Flames game this past season, we all GOT ALONG. Not just those of us who were inclined to agree with each other before we met - ALL of us. Even Shane. Because we're grown-ups, and we can disagree without being disagreeable.
Jane says things sometimes that are inaccurate. She says things sometimes that are ill-advised, or that she shouldn't have said. You know who else does that, sometimes? Me. And Dave Cournoyer. And Ken Chapman. And Shane Byciuk. And DJ Kelly. And Jeremy Zhao. And Alheli Picazo. And the Alberta Altruist. And Dan Arnold. And Dan Pagan. And Kirk Schmidt. And Alex Muir. And Christina Rontynen. And Peter Pilarski. And Allie Wojtaszek. And Duncan Wojtaszek and Blake Robert, before I put them into retirement. And every other blogger, past and present. We ALL do it. And we're not alone - REAL journalists, who are trained to do this sort of thing and smart enough to insist on PAYMENT to do it, make those mistakes too.
When we DO, we should be called on it. By the general public, and by each other. We have to police ourselves, to keep the public discourse based on reality and civility. It's the responsibility of all of us to hold each other to a high standard, and to speak up when that standard isn't met.
I respect all of the bloggers listed above, and I've been lucky enough to have met many of them. Many of them have very different ideas from me - and that's okay. Because we can respectfully disagree. Because we're adults.
But a spoof account on Twitter made to embarrass or hurt someone's feelings?
That's a child's game.
Grow up.
I have ideas that are in keeping with the political party I've chosen to support. I have ideas that are very different, and I defend them vociferously. I'm always happy to debate those ideas, and listen to the ideas of others.
Sometimes, though, it's not possible to come to an agreement. Sometimes, you have to agree to disagree. Sometimes, the other person isn't interested in compromise. Heck, sometimes - very rarely - I'm not interested in compromise. And so you end in a stand-off. This is the reality of adult conversation.
I've long been opposed to the co-opting of public figures' images, names or internet identities for partisan gain under the guise of "satire". I didn't like it when Ed Stelmach's domain name was snapped up. I didn't like it when fake Stelmach and Ted Morton id's popped up on Twitter. Those are elected officials, and they're fair game for criticism. I get that. Bloggers are no less public, and that's by our choice. We choose to step out of the shadows, stand on a soap-box, and proclaim our thoughts to the masses. So, we're fair game for disagreement at all times, and for ridicule when we deserve it.
All that said, though, it's still not okay in my mind to co-opt someone's identity to try and embarrass them. So it was with great trepidation that I saw recently someone had started a fake account on Twitter for my friend and fellow blogger Christina Rontynen. Christina did a great job of turning the other cheek, and even considered it something of a badge of honour that she had been considered a big enough threat to have warranted a "spoof account". This reaction denied the offender that which they were most probably seeking: The chance to be hurtful to the object of their scorn and ridicule.
My disgust at the appearance this weekend of a hideously named Twitter account meant to ridicule Jane Morgan is palpable. I know that, as a staunch advocate of free speech, Jane is going to let this roll off her back like water on a duck. But the clearly degrading language used to describe this earnest and passionate Albertan is completely unacceptable in a civilized society. The account suggests it may be the work of someone in her own party, but that could just as easily be a red herring. Whether the account is related to the Wildrose nomination battle in Calgary-Klein (nee North Hill), a result of someone from another partisan bent trying to get their shots in anonymously, or just some coward with a keyboard and a lot of free time is beside the point. It's name-calling in an attempt to be hurtful. It's something children do. And my friend Jane is many things - but "childish" is not one of them. She won't give this coward the satisfaction.
I have had the pleasure of meeting many of the political bloggers here in Alberta, from across the entire political spectrum. I count some of them - regardless of their affiliation - among my closer friends. We disagree on many things - but we disagree and debate those differences with respect, and in full sentences. It was a pleasant shock to me that when many of us were invited by Wildrose Alliance blogger The Alberta Altruist to join him in a suite at the Saddledome for a Calgary Flames game this past season, we all GOT ALONG. Not just those of us who were inclined to agree with each other before we met - ALL of us. Even Shane. Because we're grown-ups, and we can disagree without being disagreeable.
Jane says things sometimes that are inaccurate. She says things sometimes that are ill-advised, or that she shouldn't have said. You know who else does that, sometimes? Me. And Dave Cournoyer. And Ken Chapman. And Shane Byciuk. And DJ Kelly. And Jeremy Zhao. And Alheli Picazo. And the Alberta Altruist. And Dan Arnold. And Dan Pagan. And Kirk Schmidt. And Alex Muir. And Christina Rontynen. And Peter Pilarski. And Allie Wojtaszek. And Duncan Wojtaszek and Blake Robert, before I put them into retirement. And every other blogger, past and present. We ALL do it. And we're not alone - REAL journalists, who are trained to do this sort of thing and smart enough to insist on PAYMENT to do it, make those mistakes too.
When we DO, we should be called on it. By the general public, and by each other. We have to police ourselves, to keep the public discourse based on reality and civility. It's the responsibility of all of us to hold each other to a high standard, and to speak up when that standard isn't met.
I respect all of the bloggers listed above, and I've been lucky enough to have met many of them. Many of them have very different ideas from me - and that's okay. Because we can respectfully disagree. Because we're adults.
But a spoof account on Twitter made to embarrass or hurt someone's feelings?
That's a child's game.
Grow up.
Saturday, May 28, 2011
Glenn Taylor Elected Alberta Party Leader #abpleader
With 665 votes, Glenn Taylor, Mayor of Hinton, has been elected Leader of the Alberta Party. Taylor will now begin in earnest the joint tasks of setting up his own campaign for MLA in West Yellowhead, and in working with the party's Election Readiness team to try and win a sizable caucus in the next General Election for Alberta - expected in the next 2 years.
Taylor's acceptance speech appears below.
Taylor's acceptance speech appears below.
Savage On The Scene: Sue's Big Goodbye at #abpleader
Outgoing Acting Leader of the Alberta Party, Sue Huff, pointed out on stage this afternoon that on his last day in the job Edwin Erickson had performed a rap song on his accordion. Not to be outdone, Sue picked up her guitar and brought the 300 or so convention attendees to their feet with her rendition of "Somewhere Over The Rainbow", a tongue-in-cheek response to criticisms of the party as being based on "rainbows and kitten" sentimentality.
Sue rocks.
If her suggestion that outgoing leaders should sing becomes a party tradition, I want to say to today's eventual winner: When your day comes, I'm available for lessons. ;)
Sue rocks.
If her suggestion that outgoing leaders should sing becomes a party tradition, I want to say to today's eventual winner: When your day comes, I'm available for lessons. ;)
Savage On The Scene: Countdown #abpleader
Nation, in 8 minutes the first round of voting for the Alberta Party leadership closes. Internal estimates put the turn-out at just over 60% - I'll go on the record at 1,280 votes.
Said one source close to one of the campaigns: "The last 10 minutes are the worst. There's nothing to do but wait."
The Taylor campaign has apparently called every single eligible voter, from their phone bank on-site. They're calling through Google, at no cost.
Stay tuned!
Said one source close to one of the campaigns: "The last 10 minutes are the worst. There's nothing to do but wait."
The Taylor campaign has apparently called every single eligible voter, from their phone bank on-site. They're calling through Google, at no cost.
Stay tuned!
Swag Wars: #abpleader
These are some of the goodies that were left on the tables this morning at the Alberta Party Leadership Convention.
The award for "Most Swag" goes to Glenn Taylor. Including a fascinating fortune cookie...
Ahhhhhh... so THAT'S how the cookie crumbles...
Savage On The Scene: Royer Speech at #abpleader
Royer's introduction talks about his book, which should have been called "Randy's Excellent Political Adventure". Royer is a "political philosopher and visionary" with years of business experience. Bold, courageous, unconventional. Talk of Calgary's municipal election - why, did something interesting happen there? I wasn't paying attention. ;) Paraphrase of the "Boldly Go" intro from Star Trek - you've got my attention now. "How can we see so much excellence in Alberta, yet a government of mediocrity?"
Royer thanks his fellow candidates. Also thanks Dave Taylor and Sue Huff, both of whom draw a standing ovation. Hearkens back to Bible Bill, and to Peter Lougheed. "The Heritage Fund grew and grew, but it has stalled out, and so has the party that has goverened for the last 40 years". Alberta has the 2nd largest oil reserves in the world, but we're talking aobut laying off teachers, line-ups in emergency rooms... this is not right."
Royer seems to be getting more applause than the other candidates - his speech seems to be designed for "applause pauses". It's having the desired effect.
This party is the greatest thing that has happened to Alberta politics in 2 generations. We need to be more bold - more aggressive. We need to be a leader of these new and exciting ideas. Talks about his experience in the "un-named natural governing party" of Canada. His company had a "department of listening".
"Listening is a means unto an end - it is not an end itself. We have to be prepared to act on it."
Royer wraps up his speech with some French. Interesting choice. The currency of government is the happiness of its people. "This is our time, this is the place, join me in making that change". A lot of love for Royer in the room. Could be an interesting vote...
Royer thanks his fellow candidates. Also thanks Dave Taylor and Sue Huff, both of whom draw a standing ovation. Hearkens back to Bible Bill, and to Peter Lougheed. "The Heritage Fund grew and grew, but it has stalled out, and so has the party that has goverened for the last 40 years". Alberta has the 2nd largest oil reserves in the world, but we're talking aobut laying off teachers, line-ups in emergency rooms... this is not right."
Royer seems to be getting more applause than the other candidates - his speech seems to be designed for "applause pauses". It's having the desired effect.
This party is the greatest thing that has happened to Alberta politics in 2 generations. We need to be more bold - more aggressive. We need to be a leader of these new and exciting ideas. Talks about his experience in the "un-named natural governing party" of Canada. His company had a "department of listening".
"Listening is a means unto an end - it is not an end itself. We have to be prepared to act on it."
Royer wraps up his speech with some French. Interesting choice. The currency of government is the happiness of its people. "This is our time, this is the place, join me in making that change". A lot of love for Royer in the room. Could be an interesting vote...
Savage On The Scene: Easton Speech at #abpleader
After a brief introduction, Easton takes the stage and talks about how important it is to him that the party does things differently, including how all the leadership candidates are pulling in the same direction and sharing some laughs.
Easton takes clear aim at the PC's and the current government. Out of touch, elite, etc - I'm feeling the love. ;) Talks about his background in Sudbury, moving to Calgary, and working at Mount Royal University. Talks about his work in the business world as well. "I've learned what it takes to lead; I know how to get things done."
Goes over his priorities: Education, including access to post-secondary. Long-term planning, and the Heritage Savings Trust Fund. Protecting the environment "It's not an option for us to do better, it's a requirement". Health-care. Commitment to fully public funded healthcare that "will. not. change. under. my. watch." Talks about aboriginal relations.
"We have to leverage these new political winds - we know there's a desire for change".
Alberta Party needs to do things differently by 1. Discussing reasonable solutions. 2. Employing leading-edge thinking to develop and implement long-term solutions. Takes a shot at the Wildrose.
"I share your vision for a progressive, innovating, world-class Alberta. It's time to dream again".
Easton takes clear aim at the PC's and the current government. Out of touch, elite, etc - I'm feeling the love. ;) Talks about his background in Sudbury, moving to Calgary, and working at Mount Royal University. Talks about his work in the business world as well. "I've learned what it takes to lead; I know how to get things done."
Goes over his priorities: Education, including access to post-secondary. Long-term planning, and the Heritage Savings Trust Fund. Protecting the environment "It's not an option for us to do better, it's a requirement". Health-care. Commitment to fully public funded healthcare that "will. not. change. under. my. watch." Talks about aboriginal relations.
"We have to leverage these new political winds - we know there's a desire for change".
Alberta Party needs to do things differently by 1. Discussing reasonable solutions. 2. Employing leading-edge thinking to develop and implement long-term solutions. Takes a shot at the Wildrose.
"I share your vision for a progressive, innovating, world-class Alberta. It's time to dream again".
Savage On The Scene: Maloney Speech at #abpleader
Introduction from Tammy's mom: The day has arrived, and isn't it exciting? "Woot woot", as those Facebook people would say... (laughs)
Throw to a video from Sam Gregory, the young man who spearheaded the Save Our Fine Arts organization. He met Tammy at an event, and fully endorses her for Alberta Party leader.
Tammy's mom continues to heap praise on her daughter, focusing on her heart and collaborative nature. No mention of sneaking out late at night or not doing her chores. Note to self: Under NO circumstances should my mother be allowed near a microphone when I run for office. ;)
Marc from Calgary East comes up to speak next, about the Alberta Party's belief in listening. Leader's job is to "ask questions on our behalf". Leader must be approachable to every Albertan. We have 4 very talented Albertans who represent the best of Alberta leadership. I know every one of them is capable. My choice is the person with the energy, drive and approachability to continue party's meteoric growth. Tammy comes onto the stage.
Maloney starts by thanking fellow candidates, and all in attendance. "I truly believe that no matter who we elect today, we can't make a bad choice - because our party is destined for greatness (big applause)". Talks about her business background, and her experience with the Clinton Foundation. "My heart has led me back home, to an experience with the homeless community in Calgary, I build relationships with street youth to help them enter the job market and not a homeless shelter." She begins to tear up when talking about the Alberta Party, and how for the first time she feels "at home". Speaks about the holistic approach to policy, and that "we WILL form the next government."
Throw to a video from Sam Gregory, the young man who spearheaded the Save Our Fine Arts organization. He met Tammy at an event, and fully endorses her for Alberta Party leader.
Tammy's mom continues to heap praise on her daughter, focusing on her heart and collaborative nature. No mention of sneaking out late at night or not doing her chores. Note to self: Under NO circumstances should my mother be allowed near a microphone when I run for office. ;)
Marc from Calgary East comes up to speak next, about the Alberta Party's belief in listening. Leader's job is to "ask questions on our behalf". Leader must be approachable to every Albertan. We have 4 very talented Albertans who represent the best of Alberta leadership. I know every one of them is capable. My choice is the person with the energy, drive and approachability to continue party's meteoric growth. Tammy comes onto the stage.
Maloney starts by thanking fellow candidates, and all in attendance. "I truly believe that no matter who we elect today, we can't make a bad choice - because our party is destined for greatness (big applause)". Talks about her business background, and her experience with the Clinton Foundation. "My heart has led me back home, to an experience with the homeless community in Calgary, I build relationships with street youth to help them enter the job market and not a homeless shelter." She begins to tear up when talking about the Alberta Party, and how for the first time she feels "at home". Speaks about the holistic approach to policy, and that "we WILL form the next government."
Savage On The Scene: Taylor Speech at #abpleader
Glenn Taylor begins by thanking his fellow candidates. Points out that when Peter Lougheed and David King were building a progressive Alberta, he wasn't all that thankful - he was busy skiing (big laughs). Taylor hypes up the strength and growth of the party. Hearkens back to Lougheed again, and mentions the democratic deficit.Talks about why he chose to live in Hinton. Tells the story of working in the sawmill, going back to school, meeting his wife and his kids - the daughter a nurse, the son living at the base of a ski hill ("sometimes the sins of the father are visited upon the son"). His campaign for Hinton council was based on the simple concept of instilling pride through listening. The citizens identified their priorities, and council met them. Will the Alberta Party be defined by the left and the right? Yes. "We will be defined because we are going to make sure that the politics of the past is left behind, and we will do what is right". Mentions his participation in the first Reboot Alberta event in Red Deer, which was attended by people from every party and every part of the political spectrum. Says that "by this time next year, our party will have contested an election". A year from now I intend to be standing here again, as the elected MLA for West Yellowhead - and I want my fellow leadership candidates standing here with me, as part of the Alberta Party caucus.
Savage On The Scene: The Morning Of #abpleader
Nation, after a relatively early night and a morning spent fighting off my hayfever (the battle wages on), I find myself sitting in Salons 8-10 at the Shaw Conference Centre.
The membership of this party is streaming through the doors, on their way to their various tasks or their breakfast tables. The party's President, Chris Labossiere, just stopped by one of the 2 "Blogger Tables" to say hi. Spirits are high, and many of these folks have already cast their ballots via telephone and online. I'm not 100% convinced that's the best course of action before the candidates have had a chance to speak to the convention, but those votes are no less informed than many of those cast in any other party's leadership races.
There's a smoky smell to the air in Edmonton today - I expect that's related to the wildfires that still blaze in many areas to the north. But there's also anticipation in the air, as the party may meet its new leader by 1:15 this afternoon, as the results from the First Ballot are announced.
The voting works as follows:
First Ballot voting is open until 1:00 pm today. Votes will be tallied, and if no candidate has 50% of the vote plus 1, the candidate with the least votes will be dropped off the list, and the remaining 3 candidates will again stand for election, on a second ballot.
Second Ballot voting, if required, will take place in-person at the Shaw Centre, and via telephone and online, from 2:00 pm to 3:00 pm. The results will be tabulated and announced, and if none of the 3 remaining candidates secures 50% of the vote plus 1, the 3rd place candidate will be dropped from the ballot and the final 2 candidates will move on to a third a final round.
Third Ballot voting, if required, will take place from 4:00 pm to 5:00 pm. By my limited grasp of math, I'm pretty sure that with only 2 candidates on the ballot, one of them will certainly have the 50% plus 1 required to be declared the elected Leader of the Alberta Party.
What strikes me most about the people in this room is the relative youth that I see... in my own party, I tend to spend more time around the youth than anyone else, but it's clear in larger party events that the youth contingent, while passionate, is certainly outweighed by the elder lions (a group towards which I find myself inexorably sliding further and further with each passing year).
As I look around this room, I'm counting about 150 people at breakfast - and maybe 30 of the heads are sporting grey foliage. The party has a provincial board of 24 members, and 18 of them are under the age of 40.
Now, youth isn't EVERYTHING - you've got to be GOOD at running a party, too. And the Alberta Party is still early in the game. But in terms of growth and energy going forward, they're in a place that many parties would love to be: Chock-full of young, passionate volunteers who want to make a difference.
The membership of this party is streaming through the doors, on their way to their various tasks or their breakfast tables. The party's President, Chris Labossiere, just stopped by one of the 2 "Blogger Tables" to say hi. Spirits are high, and many of these folks have already cast their ballots via telephone and online. I'm not 100% convinced that's the best course of action before the candidates have had a chance to speak to the convention, but those votes are no less informed than many of those cast in any other party's leadership races.
There's a smoky smell to the air in Edmonton today - I expect that's related to the wildfires that still blaze in many areas to the north. But there's also anticipation in the air, as the party may meet its new leader by 1:15 this afternoon, as the results from the First Ballot are announced.
The voting works as follows:
First Ballot voting is open until 1:00 pm today. Votes will be tallied, and if no candidate has 50% of the vote plus 1, the candidate with the least votes will be dropped off the list, and the remaining 3 candidates will again stand for election, on a second ballot.
Second Ballot voting, if required, will take place in-person at the Shaw Centre, and via telephone and online, from 2:00 pm to 3:00 pm. The results will be tabulated and announced, and if none of the 3 remaining candidates secures 50% of the vote plus 1, the 3rd place candidate will be dropped from the ballot and the final 2 candidates will move on to a third a final round.
Third Ballot voting, if required, will take place from 4:00 pm to 5:00 pm. By my limited grasp of math, I'm pretty sure that with only 2 candidates on the ballot, one of them will certainly have the 50% plus 1 required to be declared the elected Leader of the Alberta Party.
What strikes me most about the people in this room is the relative youth that I see... in my own party, I tend to spend more time around the youth than anyone else, but it's clear in larger party events that the youth contingent, while passionate, is certainly outweighed by the elder lions (a group towards which I find myself inexorably sliding further and further with each passing year).
As I look around this room, I'm counting about 150 people at breakfast - and maybe 30 of the heads are sporting grey foliage. The party has a provincial board of 24 members, and 18 of them are under the age of 40.
Now, youth isn't EVERYTHING - you've got to be GOOD at running a party, too. And the Alberta Party is still early in the game. But in terms of growth and energy going forward, they're in a place that many parties would love to be: Chock-full of young, passionate volunteers who want to make a difference.
Friday, May 27, 2011
Savage On The Scene: The Night Before #abpleader
Nation, the Savage has landed in Edmonton, and arrived at the Shaw Convention Centre just as the formal program was wrapping up and leadership candidates were making the rounds, kissing the babies (figuratively) and the dogs (literally - there WERE 2 dogs here).
I've touched base with the Maloney, Taylor and Easton camps. The candidates have speeches to polish - they've got over 15minutes at the podium tomorrow to convince the voters why they're the right fit for the job. The supporters seem to be bundles of energy, ready to go off and do... something... at a moment's notice. WHAT, exactly, they're supposed to be doing, they're not so sure about.
Cue the Operatives... every party has them. They know your name, even though you've never seen them in your life. You see them smiling at odd times, and then notice the backlight from their cell phone is still glowing in their hand, showing the text message from the manager of their volunteer phone bank. They shake hands with potential supporters, chit-chat for a minute or two, and then grab a campaign volunteer to "work on" you while they power-walk off to put out the most recent fire.
Even for a party that's trying to get rid of "politics as usual", the Operatives have a place. A political party without Operatives is utterly incapable of waging electoral battle. And the Operatives are in for a late night tonight, I think.
Early returns from this evening, announced by the Alberta Party President Chris Labossiere, indicated nearly 30% turn-out of eligible voters. And that's just through internet and phone voting.
A long night indeed.
Those of you here in Edmonton who might need to get ahold of me tonight, know how to. I'm at the Mariott. ;)
By this time tomorrow, a party leader will be standing here.
I've touched base with the Maloney, Taylor and Easton camps. The candidates have speeches to polish - they've got over 15minutes at the podium tomorrow to convince the voters why they're the right fit for the job. The supporters seem to be bundles of energy, ready to go off and do... something... at a moment's notice. WHAT, exactly, they're supposed to be doing, they're not so sure about.
Cue the Operatives... every party has them. They know your name, even though you've never seen them in your life. You see them smiling at odd times, and then notice the backlight from their cell phone is still glowing in their hand, showing the text message from the manager of their volunteer phone bank. They shake hands with potential supporters, chit-chat for a minute or two, and then grab a campaign volunteer to "work on" you while they power-walk off to put out the most recent fire.
Even for a party that's trying to get rid of "politics as usual", the Operatives have a place. A political party without Operatives is utterly incapable of waging electoral battle. And the Operatives are in for a late night tonight, I think.
Early returns from this evening, announced by the Alberta Party President Chris Labossiere, indicated nearly 30% turn-out of eligible voters. And that's just through internet and phone voting.
A long night indeed.
Those of you here in Edmonton who might need to get ahold of me tonight, know how to. I'm at the Mariott. ;)
Lightning In a Bottle: The Alberta Party Leadership Race
Nation, something you may not know about me is that I agonize over the titles to my blog posts. I try to look for something relevant, funny, and/or understandable. Sometimes, an inability to come up with a good headline will stop me from writing a post altogether. And I always write the title before I write the body.
So, what's with the title to this particular post - "Lightning in a Bottle"?
Essentially, what the Alberta Party is trying to do this weekend with their selection of a leader is to find themselves the "next Naheed": Someone who can lift their party from obscurity and chase down the big dogs. Much as we saw Nenshi do in Calgary, the Alberta Party is going to have to overcome their relatively low profile to challenge the "establishment" parties of the PCs, Liberals, NDP and Wildrose (who, while new themselves, are completely stocked with politicians and operatives from yesteryear) for donations, media attention, and (ultimately) seats.
In order to do this, they need a leader who connects with Albertans. A leader who represents to Albertans exactly what the party membership feel is their most important attribute or focus.
If the membership feels their focus should be on party building, they'll vote a certain way in the leadership contest. If they feel their focus should be on the economy, they'll vote another way. And so on. In essence, we will know how this party defines itself and its priorities by the results of this leadership election.
Tammy Maloney will be elected leader of the Alberta Party if the membership wants to show the party as wearing its heart on its sleeve. Passionate and engaging, Maloney is impossible to dislike. She represents the progressive heart of this party's raison d'etre. She's a tireless worker, and boasts a very impressive resume. She's not afraid to say "I don't know the answer to that" - which would certainly be a change from the politicians of today. Her family's Albertan roots run deep, and the Vauxhall native would do very well at wooing potential party supporters in the rural south and the urban centres.
Glenn Taylor will be elected leader of the Alberta Party if the membership wants to show the party as eschewing "politics as usual". The only candidate to actually have been elected to public office in the past, the sitting Mayor of Hinton has developed a reputation for doing politics differently. He's about pan-generational planning, and building consensus. It also doesn't hurt that he has attracted some pretty high profile endorsements from within the party. The only candidate from north of Airdrie, Taylor would also be a boon to the party's fortunes in the north, particularly in Edmonton and areas to the west.
Randy Royer will be elected leader of the Alberta Party if the membership wants to show the party as being focused on the economy. His evocation of Bill Clinton's famous line "It's the economy, stupid" drew some ire from within the party, however Royer maintains that in order to get Henry and Martha onside with the new party, the focus has to be on ensuring that people can still make a living. It would also help silence the whispered criticisms of the party as being "re-branded Liberals". Royer's deep commitment to bettering Alberta for all of us is clear to anyone who's spoken with him, and he is convinced that his party can win the next general election in Alberta.
Lee Easton will be elected leader of the Alberta Party if the membership wants to embrace whole-heartedly their progressive mantle. His policy positions are clear and read like a progressive hymnal, though what's somewhat less clear is whether the party membership would fully endorse them even if he were to win the leadership. He's a teacher and academic with business experience, who would likely have a lot of appeal in the cities. I wasn't able to connect with Lee during the contest, but I'll try again when I get to the convention this evening.
I'll be doing a lot of posting from the Alberta Party Leadership Convention this weekend, and should be arriving around 8 tonight, so watch this space for updates.
(Rumour has it that Dave Cournoyer of daveberta has challenged me to a cage match. It's gunna get UGLY. Doesn't he remember how I crushed Alberta Tory? ;)
EDIT: The Twitter hashtag for the Leadership Convention is "#abpleader" - I'd suggest following it and #abparty if you prefer to get your updates via Twitter rather than waiting for prime rib-quality analysis from the Enlightened Savage. ;)
So, what's with the title to this particular post - "Lightning in a Bottle"?
Essentially, what the Alberta Party is trying to do this weekend with their selection of a leader is to find themselves the "next Naheed": Someone who can lift their party from obscurity and chase down the big dogs. Much as we saw Nenshi do in Calgary, the Alberta Party is going to have to overcome their relatively low profile to challenge the "establishment" parties of the PCs, Liberals, NDP and Wildrose (who, while new themselves, are completely stocked with politicians and operatives from yesteryear) for donations, media attention, and (ultimately) seats.
In order to do this, they need a leader who connects with Albertans. A leader who represents to Albertans exactly what the party membership feel is their most important attribute or focus.
If the membership feels their focus should be on party building, they'll vote a certain way in the leadership contest. If they feel their focus should be on the economy, they'll vote another way. And so on. In essence, we will know how this party defines itself and its priorities by the results of this leadership election.
Tammy Maloney will be elected leader of the Alberta Party if the membership wants to show the party as wearing its heart on its sleeve. Passionate and engaging, Maloney is impossible to dislike. She represents the progressive heart of this party's raison d'etre. She's a tireless worker, and boasts a very impressive resume. She's not afraid to say "I don't know the answer to that" - which would certainly be a change from the politicians of today. Her family's Albertan roots run deep, and the Vauxhall native would do very well at wooing potential party supporters in the rural south and the urban centres.
Glenn Taylor will be elected leader of the Alberta Party if the membership wants to show the party as eschewing "politics as usual". The only candidate to actually have been elected to public office in the past, the sitting Mayor of Hinton has developed a reputation for doing politics differently. He's about pan-generational planning, and building consensus. It also doesn't hurt that he has attracted some pretty high profile endorsements from within the party. The only candidate from north of Airdrie, Taylor would also be a boon to the party's fortunes in the north, particularly in Edmonton and areas to the west.
Randy Royer will be elected leader of the Alberta Party if the membership wants to show the party as being focused on the economy. His evocation of Bill Clinton's famous line "It's the economy, stupid" drew some ire from within the party, however Royer maintains that in order to get Henry and Martha onside with the new party, the focus has to be on ensuring that people can still make a living. It would also help silence the whispered criticisms of the party as being "re-branded Liberals". Royer's deep commitment to bettering Alberta for all of us is clear to anyone who's spoken with him, and he is convinced that his party can win the next general election in Alberta.
Lee Easton will be elected leader of the Alberta Party if the membership wants to embrace whole-heartedly their progressive mantle. His policy positions are clear and read like a progressive hymnal, though what's somewhat less clear is whether the party membership would fully endorse them even if he were to win the leadership. He's a teacher and academic with business experience, who would likely have a lot of appeal in the cities. I wasn't able to connect with Lee during the contest, but I'll try again when I get to the convention this evening.
I'll be doing a lot of posting from the Alberta Party Leadership Convention this weekend, and should be arriving around 8 tonight, so watch this space for updates.
(Rumour has it that Dave Cournoyer of daveberta has challenged me to a cage match. It's gunna get UGLY. Doesn't he remember how I crushed Alberta Tory? ;)
EDIT: The Twitter hashtag for the Leadership Convention is "#abpleader" - I'd suggest following it and #abparty if you prefer to get your updates via Twitter rather than waiting for prime rib-quality analysis from the Enlightened Savage. ;)
Quiet May Weekends...
Nation, there are few things I love more than the ability to kick up my feet for a couple of days in May, listen to the rain, and do absolutely NOTHING.
This weekend will NOT be one of those times.
Indeed, this is one of the busiest weekends we've seen in a looooong time, as far as Alberta's political watchers are concerned.
Gary Mar is making the rounds in Cowtown, hitting Rutherford this morning to announce his municipal funding platform and opening his Calgary Campaign Office to much fanfare on this afternoon at 4:00 pm. Mar seems to have been anointed by the mainstream media as one of the front-runners to replace Ed Stelmach as PC Leader, along with Ted Morton and Alison Redford (the front-runners for PC Leader in 2006, according to the same luminaries, were eventual third-place winner Morton and runner-up Jim Dinning. They also picked Ric McIver to win Calgary's mayoral race, before picking Barb Higgins, before only begrudgingly acknowledging Naheed Nenshi's campaign in its final few weeks - so just because you read it in print, doesn't make it so. And this from a blogger who predicted 50 BQ seats in the 41st General Election.)
The Progressive Conservatives are having a major "Spring Fling" fundraiser in Calgary on Friday night to drum up funds and support for their local constituency associations in Calgary constituencies currently not represented by PC MLA's. Tickets are still available, but are said to be nearly sold out. Every declared leadership contender will be in attendance, to the best of my knowledge.
The Alberta Liberals are likewise holding a big get together in Calgary on Saturday and Sunday, billed as their Annual Convention and Special General Meeting, with the subtitle of "Politics Reimagined", to talk about where they go from here. Proposed amendments include everything from opening up leadership votes to any Albertan who "registers as a Liberal supporter" (which is, I imagine, not the same as being a party member) to moving from a "one-member, one vote" process to a "weighted delegate" process. Change is in the air, that much is for certain. This hot on the heels of yesterday's announcement by Bruce Payne of his intention to run for the party's leadership under his "87 Strong" campaign for party renewal across the entire province. It should make for an interesting meeting, to say the least. Payne joins sitting MLA's Hugh MacDonald, Laurie Blakeman and Raj Sherman as declared Liberal leadership candidates. The party will choose its new leader on September 10th in Edmonton.
The Alberta Party will be holding its Leadership Convention in Edmonton this weekend as well, with voting taking place online, via telephone, and live on Saturday. The online voting will be closely watched by politicos of all stripes, as other parties and organizations toy with internet voting as a way of improving turnout. I'll be most interested in watching to see if at any point "Kirk Schmidt" is leading the online vote, as that will be a sure sign that security is an issue. Subsequent votes will continue throughout the day if required, until a winner is declared among the 4 candidates. I have been granted Media Accreditation for this event, and will be in attendance Friday night and all day Saturday - so watch this space for interviews and updates as they become available.
No rest for the wicked... coming later: My impressions of the Alberta Party leadership candidates.
This weekend will NOT be one of those times.
Indeed, this is one of the busiest weekends we've seen in a looooong time, as far as Alberta's political watchers are concerned.
Gary Mar is making the rounds in Cowtown, hitting Rutherford this morning to announce his municipal funding platform and opening his Calgary Campaign Office to much fanfare on this afternoon at 4:00 pm. Mar seems to have been anointed by the mainstream media as one of the front-runners to replace Ed Stelmach as PC Leader, along with Ted Morton and Alison Redford (the front-runners for PC Leader in 2006, according to the same luminaries, were eventual third-place winner Morton and runner-up Jim Dinning. They also picked Ric McIver to win Calgary's mayoral race, before picking Barb Higgins, before only begrudgingly acknowledging Naheed Nenshi's campaign in its final few weeks - so just because you read it in print, doesn't make it so. And this from a blogger who predicted 50 BQ seats in the 41st General Election.)
The Progressive Conservatives are having a major "Spring Fling" fundraiser in Calgary on Friday night to drum up funds and support for their local constituency associations in Calgary constituencies currently not represented by PC MLA's. Tickets are still available, but are said to be nearly sold out. Every declared leadership contender will be in attendance, to the best of my knowledge.
The Alberta Liberals are likewise holding a big get together in Calgary on Saturday and Sunday, billed as their Annual Convention and Special General Meeting, with the subtitle of "Politics Reimagined", to talk about where they go from here. Proposed amendments include everything from opening up leadership votes to any Albertan who "registers as a Liberal supporter" (which is, I imagine, not the same as being a party member) to moving from a "one-member, one vote" process to a "weighted delegate" process. Change is in the air, that much is for certain. This hot on the heels of yesterday's announcement by Bruce Payne of his intention to run for the party's leadership under his "87 Strong" campaign for party renewal across the entire province. It should make for an interesting meeting, to say the least. Payne joins sitting MLA's Hugh MacDonald, Laurie Blakeman and Raj Sherman as declared Liberal leadership candidates. The party will choose its new leader on September 10th in Edmonton.
The Alberta Party will be holding its Leadership Convention in Edmonton this weekend as well, with voting taking place online, via telephone, and live on Saturday. The online voting will be closely watched by politicos of all stripes, as other parties and organizations toy with internet voting as a way of improving turnout. I'll be most interested in watching to see if at any point "Kirk Schmidt" is leading the online vote, as that will be a sure sign that security is an issue. Subsequent votes will continue throughout the day if required, until a winner is declared among the 4 candidates. I have been granted Media Accreditation for this event, and will be in attendance Friday night and all day Saturday - so watch this space for interviews and updates as they become available.
No rest for the wicked... coming later: My impressions of the Alberta Party leadership candidates.
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
Audio: Interview with Alberta Party leadership candidate Randy Royer
Nation, I had a chance to sit down with businessman, author and Alberta Party leadership contender Randy Royer the day after the recent federal election.
The Alberta Party will be choosing a leader in Edmonton this coming week-end, and I have been granted media accreditation. I will be live-blogging the event in this space, so be sure to tune in on Friday night and all day Saturday as the party membership charts the course they intend to take towards the next provincial election.
For more information on the Alberta Party leadership election, click here.
For more information on Randy Royer, click here.
The Alberta Party will be choosing a leader in Edmonton this coming week-end, and I have been granted media accreditation. I will be live-blogging the event in this space, so be sure to tune in on Friday night and all day Saturday as the party membership charts the course they intend to take towards the next provincial election.
For more information on the Alberta Party leadership election, click here.
For more information on Randy Royer, click here.
Friday, May 6, 2011
Awesomeness from the Inbox
Nation, this crossed my desk recently from a really nifty blog/social experiment called One Hundred Jobs, and it's too good to pass up.
One Hundred Jobs: Job 87: Get Yer Vote On For LOVE!
The couple in question are friends and colleagues of mine, and I can't reiterate in strong enough terms how deserving they are of this opportunity.
Take a few moments, please, and follow the instructions on One Hundred Jobs in order to lend your social media weight and Facebook vote to Duane and the LONG-suffering Becky.
We all know the impressive weight that comes from the "E.S. Bump". Let's harness the power of the Nation, and get these kids over the top.
One Hundred Jobs: Job 87: Get Yer Vote On For LOVE!
The couple in question are friends and colleagues of mine, and I can't reiterate in strong enough terms how deserving they are of this opportunity.
Take a few moments, please, and follow the instructions on One Hundred Jobs in order to lend your social media weight and Facebook vote to Duane and the LONG-suffering Becky.
We all know the impressive weight that comes from the "E.S. Bump". Let's harness the power of the Nation, and get these kids over the top.
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Audio: Interview with Alberta Party leadership candidate Glenn Taylor
Nation, I recently had the pleasure of sitting down for a chat with Glenn Taylor, third-term Mayor of Hinton and candidate for the leadership of the Alberta Party. Our discussion appears below.
For more information on the Alberta Party leadership election, click here.
For more information on Glenn Taylor, click here.
For more information on the Alberta Party leadership election, click here.
For more information on Glenn Taylor, click here.
Monday, May 2, 2011
#elxn41: You Have Another Choice
Nation, this is usually the time when I get up on my soapbox and exhort you, in the strongest possible terms, to make sure you go out tomorrow and exercise your democratic franchise. That you honour those who fought and died for that right, by making an informed choice at the ballot box.
I really want you to go out to your polling station. I REALLY do.
That's the choice that you always have to make, really: Do I vote, or do I not vote?
After all, it's a binary thing, right? You either got in the car, went to the polling station, and cast a ballot for one of the candidates... or you stayed home, made some Kraft Dinner, and caught up on some housework. One decision, 2 possible courses of action.
I'm telling you today that you have a third option.
Go to the polling station, and refuse your ballot.
Now, I should be very clear, here: In Federal elections, ballots rejected by the voter are not marked in a separate category, as they are in certain provincial elections (like the ones in Alberta, for example). They go into the same category as "spoiled" ballots - a fact of which I was unaware until recently - as "ballots rejected by the returning officer".
If you didn't find a local candidate you could support in this election... if no one did you the courtesy of returning your calls, or coming by the house and asking you for the job... if the candidate you were most likely to support didn't come to the all-candidates' forum in your riding... if you can't bring yourself to cast a ballot for a candidate attached to any of the parties, or their leaders... I want you to put on your coat tomorrow, drive to the polling station, and when they give you your ballot, I want you to hand it back, get the black border torn off, and drop it - unmarked - into the ballot box.
Your vote counts.
It gets marked down as "rejected" - but, you'd better believe that if 10, 20, or 30% of all ballots cast in the election are "rejected" ballots, the politicians are going to sit up and take notice.
Sick of the way federal politics are done in this country? Look in the mirror... the parties run ads like this because they WORK. They behave the way they do in the House of Commons because it WORKS. They give us garbage candidates in a lot of ridings because we ACCEPT the garbage candidates they give us. They run campaigns of flash instead of substance, because we don't demand any better. 50% come out and vote for whatever potted plant they often put in front of us, and 50% stay home, which the parties interpret in any of a thousand ways. But, those who stay home give up their franchise. They lose their chance to send a message. They're asked for their opinion - and they stay silent.
If you've found someone to vote for on May 2nd, good for you - please make sure to go out and vote for them.
If, however, you want to register a REAL protest vote... don't vote for the second most popular party in your riding. Don't vote for the party you feel most needs the $2 that is attached to your ballot.
Convinced no one has earned your support?
Don't give it to anyone.
You're not limited to "vote or stay home". You have a third choice.
You can reject your ballot, and choose "none of the above".
But get out there, and go to your polling station.
Or go to your local Legion, find a Veteran, and explain why he could go to Korea or Normany, but you can't make the 4-block trip to your local elementary school.
A cast ballot is power and a choice, no matter what mark (if any) is made on it.
A voter who stays home is part of the problem - not part of the solution.
Men and women died so you could make your choice.
So make it.
I really want you to go out to your polling station. I REALLY do.
That's the choice that you always have to make, really: Do I vote, or do I not vote?
After all, it's a binary thing, right? You either got in the car, went to the polling station, and cast a ballot for one of the candidates... or you stayed home, made some Kraft Dinner, and caught up on some housework. One decision, 2 possible courses of action.
I'm telling you today that you have a third option.
Go to the polling station, and refuse your ballot.
Now, I should be very clear, here: In Federal elections, ballots rejected by the voter are not marked in a separate category, as they are in certain provincial elections (like the ones in Alberta, for example). They go into the same category as "spoiled" ballots - a fact of which I was unaware until recently - as "ballots rejected by the returning officer".
If you didn't find a local candidate you could support in this election... if no one did you the courtesy of returning your calls, or coming by the house and asking you for the job... if the candidate you were most likely to support didn't come to the all-candidates' forum in your riding... if you can't bring yourself to cast a ballot for a candidate attached to any of the parties, or their leaders... I want you to put on your coat tomorrow, drive to the polling station, and when they give you your ballot, I want you to hand it back, get the black border torn off, and drop it - unmarked - into the ballot box.
Your vote counts.
It gets marked down as "rejected" - but, you'd better believe that if 10, 20, or 30% of all ballots cast in the election are "rejected" ballots, the politicians are going to sit up and take notice.
Sick of the way federal politics are done in this country? Look in the mirror... the parties run ads like this because they WORK. They behave the way they do in the House of Commons because it WORKS. They give us garbage candidates in a lot of ridings because we ACCEPT the garbage candidates they give us. They run campaigns of flash instead of substance, because we don't demand any better. 50% come out and vote for whatever potted plant they often put in front of us, and 50% stay home, which the parties interpret in any of a thousand ways. But, those who stay home give up their franchise. They lose their chance to send a message. They're asked for their opinion - and they stay silent.
If you've found someone to vote for on May 2nd, good for you - please make sure to go out and vote for them.
If, however, you want to register a REAL protest vote... don't vote for the second most popular party in your riding. Don't vote for the party you feel most needs the $2 that is attached to your ballot.
Convinced no one has earned your support?
Don't give it to anyone.
You're not limited to "vote or stay home". You have a third choice.
You can reject your ballot, and choose "none of the above".
But get out there, and go to your polling station.
Or go to your local Legion, find a Veteran, and explain why he could go to Korea or Normany, but you can't make the 4-block trip to your local elementary school.
A cast ballot is power and a choice, no matter what mark (if any) is made on it.
A voter who stays home is part of the problem - not part of the solution.
Men and women died so you could make your choice.
So make it.
Saturday, April 30, 2011
#elxn41 Primer: The Results
Nation, I thought I'd save you all the time and trouble of staying up to watch the results on Monday's election - especially since Tweeting the results is against the law (but blogging them seems not to be... odd...).
Everyone else seems already to have weighed in on how the results are going to work out, and so now it's time to get Savage with some numbers.
A disclaimer first, however: While I DO have the Tories winning the election, that does not necessarily equate to the Tories remaining in government. A lot of very smart people whom I have a tonne of respect for have opined that an emboldened opposition, led by Jack Layton, will very possibly defeat the government at the first opportunity (which I believe is the Throne Speech), and not even wait for a budget. Much hinges on what the wounded Liberals are going to be in the mood for as they decide how quickly they can get the millstone named Michael off from around their necks.
But, all of this is a blog post for Monday night. TONIGHT, you want a prediction. And here it is.
ALBERTA: CPC 28 seats, all other 0
If you had asked me this yesterday, I'd have said Linda Duncan and Ray Martin had a good chance at holding and extending the NDP beach head in Alberta to 2 seats. But as I've thought more and more about this, I think the average Albertan voter, even in Edmonton, is likely pretty frightened (rightly or wrongly - I think rightly) about what an NDP-led government might mean for Alberta's economy. Those scared voters are coming out on Monday and voting Conservative, because 1 or 2 seats might make the difference when, at the start of the campaign, it was considered safe to toss Jack a couple of bones as a way of protesting against "Mean Stephen".
BRITISH COLUMBIA: CPC 21 seats, LPC 2 seats, NDP 13 seats, Green 0 seats
I think the British Columbian penchant for letting their more small-l liberal roots show will result in a net increase for the NDP here. The biggest news, and the only riding in BC that many will be watching, is Sannich-Gulf Islands. I just don't think Elizabeth May has the juice to beat Gary Lunn here. I expect she'll lose by at least 5,000 votes, and then the Greens are going to have to take a good, long look at themselves in the mirror about what to do next, and who should lead them.
SASKITOBA: CPC 22 seats, LPC 1 seat, NDP 5 seats, Green 0 seats
I expect Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, which the Conservatives won by 300 votes, will swing to the NDP. Ralph Goodale will hold onto Wascana for the Liberals by a slim margin - but make no mistake, those voters are voting for Ralph, not the Liberal brand.
ATLANTIC CANADA: CPC 6 seats, LPC 8 seats, NDP 18 seats, Green 0 seats
The NDP surge here hurts the Tories AND the Liberals. Peter MacKay hangs onto Central Nova, which puts him close to the California border (by his reckoning, anyhow). PEI remains a Liberal bastion.
THE NORTH: CPC 0 seats, LPC 1 seat, NDP 2 seats, Green 0 seats
Tory Minister of Health Leona Aglukkaq is in for a fight with the NDP candidate, Jack Hicks. I expect Hicks to win based on lingering resentment over Aglukkaq's last campaign. Of course, when a riding is so vastly spread out as the 3 northern ridings, Get Out The Vote efforts are critically important, and the Conservatives have the edge there, so it WILL be close. No change in the Yukon - the incumbent Liberal Larry Bagnell is very popular.
QUEBEC: CPC 7 seats, LPC 6 seats, NDP 12 seats, BQ 50 seats, Green 0 seats
Much noise has been made about the NDP's surge in Quebec, and many Quebeckers who had previously voted for the CPC, the Liberals, and the Bloc are going to cast NDP ballots this time around. However, to my mind the lion's share of these new NDP supporters were previous supporters of the other federalist parties - the Tories and the Liberals. And the loss of those votes to the NDP is going to create space for the Bloc, despite running a relatively poor campaign, to take a handful of seats that they had been in close contention for in 2008.
ONTARIO: CPC 65 seats, LPC 17 seats, NDP 24 seats, Green 0 seats
This is going to be a catastrophe for the Liberal Party. Concerns about the economy will push voters to Harper, and concerns about social programs will push voters to Layton. NOTHING is pushing voters in Ontario into the waiting arms of Michael Ignatieff, and they're going to lose over half of their seats in Ontario as it serves as a microcosm of the Liberal Party's nationwide slide - in this election, anyhow - into "also-ran" status. A dozen of their 17 Ontario seats will be in the GTA.
THE FINAL NUMBERS:
Conservative Party of Canada: 149 seats (143 at dissolution)
New Democratic Party of Canada: 74 seats (36 at dissolution)
Bloc Quebecois: 50 seats (47 at dissolution)
Liberal Party of Canada: 35 seats (77 at dissolution)
So there. Those are the results. On paper, it's a Conservative minority. Go to bed early on Monday - you'll need your energy to get through a week of "evil Layton-led coalition" and "is Harvard hiring?" punditry and smarm.
Everyone else seems already to have weighed in on how the results are going to work out, and so now it's time to get Savage with some numbers.
A disclaimer first, however: While I DO have the Tories winning the election, that does not necessarily equate to the Tories remaining in government. A lot of very smart people whom I have a tonne of respect for have opined that an emboldened opposition, led by Jack Layton, will very possibly defeat the government at the first opportunity (which I believe is the Throne Speech), and not even wait for a budget. Much hinges on what the wounded Liberals are going to be in the mood for as they decide how quickly they can get the millstone named Michael off from around their necks.
But, all of this is a blog post for Monday night. TONIGHT, you want a prediction. And here it is.
ALBERTA: CPC 28 seats, all other 0
If you had asked me this yesterday, I'd have said Linda Duncan and Ray Martin had a good chance at holding and extending the NDP beach head in Alberta to 2 seats. But as I've thought more and more about this, I think the average Albertan voter, even in Edmonton, is likely pretty frightened (rightly or wrongly - I think rightly) about what an NDP-led government might mean for Alberta's economy. Those scared voters are coming out on Monday and voting Conservative, because 1 or 2 seats might make the difference when, at the start of the campaign, it was considered safe to toss Jack a couple of bones as a way of protesting against "Mean Stephen".
BRITISH COLUMBIA: CPC 21 seats, LPC 2 seats, NDP 13 seats, Green 0 seats
I think the British Columbian penchant for letting their more small-l liberal roots show will result in a net increase for the NDP here. The biggest news, and the only riding in BC that many will be watching, is Sannich-Gulf Islands. I just don't think Elizabeth May has the juice to beat Gary Lunn here. I expect she'll lose by at least 5,000 votes, and then the Greens are going to have to take a good, long look at themselves in the mirror about what to do next, and who should lead them.
SASKITOBA: CPC 22 seats, LPC 1 seat, NDP 5 seats, Green 0 seats
I expect Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, which the Conservatives won by 300 votes, will swing to the NDP. Ralph Goodale will hold onto Wascana for the Liberals by a slim margin - but make no mistake, those voters are voting for Ralph, not the Liberal brand.
ATLANTIC CANADA: CPC 6 seats, LPC 8 seats, NDP 18 seats, Green 0 seats
The NDP surge here hurts the Tories AND the Liberals. Peter MacKay hangs onto Central Nova, which puts him close to the California border (by his reckoning, anyhow). PEI remains a Liberal bastion.
THE NORTH: CPC 0 seats, LPC 1 seat, NDP 2 seats, Green 0 seats
Tory Minister of Health Leona Aglukkaq is in for a fight with the NDP candidate, Jack Hicks. I expect Hicks to win based on lingering resentment over Aglukkaq's last campaign. Of course, when a riding is so vastly spread out as the 3 northern ridings, Get Out The Vote efforts are critically important, and the Conservatives have the edge there, so it WILL be close. No change in the Yukon - the incumbent Liberal Larry Bagnell is very popular.
QUEBEC: CPC 7 seats, LPC 6 seats, NDP 12 seats, BQ 50 seats, Green 0 seats
Much noise has been made about the NDP's surge in Quebec, and many Quebeckers who had previously voted for the CPC, the Liberals, and the Bloc are going to cast NDP ballots this time around. However, to my mind the lion's share of these new NDP supporters were previous supporters of the other federalist parties - the Tories and the Liberals. And the loss of those votes to the NDP is going to create space for the Bloc, despite running a relatively poor campaign, to take a handful of seats that they had been in close contention for in 2008.
ONTARIO: CPC 65 seats, LPC 17 seats, NDP 24 seats, Green 0 seats
This is going to be a catastrophe for the Liberal Party. Concerns about the economy will push voters to Harper, and concerns about social programs will push voters to Layton. NOTHING is pushing voters in Ontario into the waiting arms of Michael Ignatieff, and they're going to lose over half of their seats in Ontario as it serves as a microcosm of the Liberal Party's nationwide slide - in this election, anyhow - into "also-ran" status. A dozen of their 17 Ontario seats will be in the GTA.
THE FINAL NUMBERS:
Conservative Party of Canada: 149 seats (143 at dissolution)
New Democratic Party of Canada: 74 seats (36 at dissolution)
Bloc Quebecois: 50 seats (47 at dissolution)
Liberal Party of Canada: 35 seats (77 at dissolution)
So there. Those are the results. On paper, it's a Conservative minority. Go to bed early on Monday - you'll need your energy to get through a week of "evil Layton-led coalition" and "is Harvard hiring?" punditry and smarm.
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