Saturday, April 30, 2011

#elxn41 Primer: The Results

Nation, I thought I'd save you all the time and trouble of staying up to watch the results on Monday's election - especially since Tweeting the results is against the law (but blogging them seems not to be...  odd...).

Everyone else seems already to have weighed in on how the results are going to work out, and so now it's time to get Savage with some numbers.

A disclaimer first, however: While I DO have the Tories winning the election, that does not necessarily equate to the Tories remaining in government. A lot of very smart people whom I have a tonne of respect for have opined that an emboldened opposition, led by Jack Layton, will very possibly defeat the government at the first opportunity (which I believe is the Throne Speech), and not even wait for a budget. Much hinges on what the wounded Liberals are going to be in the mood for as they decide how quickly they can get the millstone named Michael off from around their necks.

But, all of this is a blog post for Monday night.  TONIGHT, you want a prediction. And here it is.

ALBERTA: CPC 28 seats, all other 0

If you had asked me this yesterday, I'd have said Linda Duncan and Ray Martin had a good chance at holding and extending the NDP beach head in Alberta to 2 seats. But as I've thought more and more about this, I think the average Albertan voter, even in Edmonton, is likely pretty frightened (rightly or wrongly - I think rightly) about what an NDP-led government might mean for Alberta's economy. Those scared voters are coming out on Monday and voting Conservative, because 1 or 2 seats might make the difference when, at the start of the campaign, it was considered safe to toss Jack a couple of bones as a way of protesting against "Mean Stephen".

BRITISH COLUMBIA: CPC 21 seats, LPC 2 seats, NDP 13 seats, Green 0 seats

I think the British Columbian penchant for letting their more small-l liberal roots show will result in a net increase for the NDP here. The biggest news, and the only riding in BC that many will be watching, is Sannich-Gulf Islands. I just don't think Elizabeth May has the juice to beat Gary Lunn here. I expect she'll lose by at least 5,000 votes, and then the Greens are going to have to take a good, long look at themselves in the mirror about what to do next, and who should lead them.

SASKITOBA: CPC 22 seats, LPC 1 seat, NDP 5 seats, Green 0 seats

I expect Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, which the Conservatives won by 300 votes, will swing to the NDP. Ralph Goodale will hold onto Wascana for the Liberals by a slim margin - but make no mistake, those voters are voting for Ralph, not the Liberal brand.

ATLANTIC CANADA: CPC 6 seats, LPC 8 seats, NDP 18 seats, Green 0 seats

The NDP surge here hurts the Tories AND the Liberals. Peter MacKay hangs onto Central Nova, which puts him close to the California border (by his reckoning, anyhow). PEI remains a Liberal bastion.

THE NORTH: CPC 0 seats, LPC 1 seat, NDP 2 seats, Green 0 seats

Tory Minister of Health Leona Aglukkaq is in for a fight with the NDP candidate, Jack Hicks. I expect Hicks to win based on lingering resentment over Aglukkaq's last campaign. Of course, when a riding is so vastly spread out as the 3 northern ridings, Get Out The Vote efforts are critically important, and the Conservatives have the edge there, so it WILL be close. No change in the Yukon - the incumbent Liberal Larry Bagnell is very popular.

QUEBEC: CPC 7 seats, LPC 6 seats, NDP 12 seats, BQ 50 seats, Green 0 seats

Much noise has been made about the NDP's surge in Quebec, and many Quebeckers who had previously voted for the CPC, the Liberals, and the Bloc are going to cast NDP ballots this time around. However, to my mind the lion's share of these new NDP supporters were previous supporters of the other federalist parties - the Tories and the Liberals. And the loss of those votes to the NDP is going to create space for the Bloc, despite running a relatively poor campaign, to take a handful of seats that they had been in close contention for in 2008.

ONTARIO: CPC 65 seats, LPC 17 seats, NDP 24 seats, Green 0 seats

This is going to be a catastrophe for the Liberal Party. Concerns about the economy will push voters to Harper, and concerns about social programs will push voters to Layton. NOTHING is pushing voters in Ontario into the waiting arms of Michael Ignatieff, and they're going to lose over half of their seats in Ontario as it serves as a microcosm of the Liberal Party's nationwide slide - in this election, anyhow - into "also-ran" status. A dozen of their 17 Ontario seats will be in the GTA.


Conservative Party of Canada: 149 seats (143 at dissolution)
New Democratic Party of Canada: 74 seats (36 at dissolution)
Bloc Quebecois: 50 seats (47 at dissolution)
Liberal Party of Canada: 35 seats (77 at dissolution)

So there. Those are the results. On paper, it's a Conservative minority. Go to bed early on Monday - you'll need your energy to get through a week of "evil Layton-led coalition" and "is Harvard hiring?" punditry and smarm.

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