PC Leadership Candidate Profile - Ted Morton

Candyman.


Candyman.

Candyman.

 

If you look into a mirror and say it 3 times, so the legend goes, you're in for a VERY bad night.

 

So it goes, too, with "Wildrose Party" - at least, if you subscribe to Ted Morton's view of provincial politics.

 

Long a darling of the "deep blue" conservatives in this province - first as one of the brains behind the Reform Party, and later as a senator-elect and PC Leadership candidate in 2006 (finishing 3rd behind Jim Dinning and Ed Stelmach), Ted Morton is a giant among conservative thinkers. Born in Los Angeles in 1949, Morton chose at the age of 32 to move to Canada, and 10 years later became a Canadian citizen. His detractors suggest he is therefore somehow "less Canadian than the rest of us", but that's purely tripe. He earned his doctorate in political science, and then went to work in the trenches with the nascent Reform Party, believing in its message of lower taxes, traditional values, fiscal responsibility and democratic reform.

 

During his 2006 run for the PC Leadership, Morton was roasted by the media (this blogger included) for his decidedly right-of-centre slant. Morton finished third in that race, and since then Alberta has seen the rise of the Wildrose Party (nee Wildrose Alliance), espousing many of the same values and policies that Morton brought to the table in 2006. Those ideas have clearly found an audience, although to what degree the Wildrose was a protest against Ed Stelmach and his policies rather than the natural evolution of political thought in Alberta and the "new normal", remains for history to decide. Ted, though, has his own theory - warning us that the only way to bring the Wildrose supporters "back to the mothership" is to send them a sign, through his ascendancy to the PC throne, that right-of-centre ideas are welcome in today's PC Party. He goes on to warn that vote-splitting of the right-of-centre vote between the PC Party and the Wildrose would make it possible for the Alberta Liberals, New Democrats and possibly even the Alberta Party to take advantage and wrestle away seats - or even control of government, as was seen when the federal political scene featured both the PC Party and the Reform Party, and Jean Chretien's Liberals reaped the benefits.

 

For their part, I haven't spoken to many Wildrose supporters who have indicated a Morton victory means they'll tear up their Wildrose card and come back to the PCs. But they MAY just be playing coy.

 

Policy:

Morton has mostly stayed away from the traditional "social conservative" policies that earned him so much scorn in 2006, instead calculating that most Albertans agree with him on fiscal policy and the need for reform. His policies, therefore, have a decidedly mathematical and "common sensical" (it's a word NOW) slant to them. For example:

 

• Return Alberta to balanced budgets by restraining spending, not by making deep service cuts or tax hikes.
• Limit the annual growth of government spending to no more than population plus inflation—ensuring that the public sector grows no faster than the private sector.
• Ensure the Alberta Advantage by not raising income taxes or introducing a PST. And a Morton government will legislate that no future government can increase income taxes without Albertans’ approval by referendum.
• Protect Albertans from short-term fluctuations in government revenues by rebuilding the Sustainability Fund.
• Protect Alberta’s future by rebuilding the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund
• Work more closely with Ottawa under the Federal Pan-Canadian Framework for the Assessment and Recognition of Foreign Qualifications to expedite entry of foreign-trained professionals into the Alberta work force.
• Negotiate an immigration agreement with the federal government to move decision-making on immigration to Alberta, similar to Quebec’s current agreement.
• Immediately put a stake in the heart of Bill 50.
• Support the development of new urban conservation areas and parks and a new dedicated fund to help pay for these parks. This fund would also be used to protect environmentally valuable lands (such as the conservation easements on OH Ranch) and to build new recreational infrastructure (such as campgrounds and trails)
• Amend the current Leadership Selection Process by adopting a cut-off date for the sale of memberships before balloting begins. The current system allows people to purchase memberships on the last day of voting – minutes before they cast their ballots. Many of these “two minute Tories” tear up their newly purchased membership cards as soon as they exit the voting booth.
• Provide the opportunity for PCAA members to purchase multi-year memberships.
• Continue with the implementation of Alberta Netcare (Alberta’s electronic health records system) and will replace the current paper Alberta Personal Health Cards with secure Smart cards for Albertans.
• Re-institute the practice of sending yearly statements to each person using Alberta health services so Albertans know the costs of their personal health care.
• Ensure that all existing property rights of landowners and leaseholders are respected—including all existing rights to compensation, plus the new right to compensation for loss of value caused by any new environmental restrictions on current use.
• The Alberta Tuition Tax Credit Program will provide a refund of tuition paid by Alberta students if they complete their program of study and then remain in Alberta and work for the next seven years. The tuition will be paid back in the form of non-refundable tax-credits and capped at a maximum value of $20,000.
• I will establish a transparent, independent review of MLA compensation and roll back the 2008 Cabinet and MLA pay increases until I receive the recommendations of the review.
• I will introduce fixed election dates, removing the power of the Premier to arbitrarily choose when Albertans go to the polls.
• I will introduce term limits for Premiers – no more than two full four-year terms and a maximum of 10 years total. This would ensure the province continues to move forward with vigorous leadership and fresh vision.
• I will reduce the size of Cabinet from the 24 that we have now to 17
• Reclaim Alberta’s position as the leading voice for Senate reform by holding new Senate elections in conjunction with Alberta’s provincial elections.

 

The Long & Short Of It:

 

July 28th will go down as the day that the Morton campaign hit its biggest snag. There have been hard days since - the Frederick Lee/document shredding "scandal" springs to mind - but on July 28th, the Edmonton Journal and Calgary Herald ran stories about a poll that showed the PC Party at 54% public support, and the Wildrose at 16%. In effect, Ted's "We need the Wildrosers to come back" argument had suffered a devastating blow. And yet, the mantra has stayed the same... at every function, on every doorstep, in every speech, Ted continues his insistence that the party members, donors and Albertan voters who have spurned the PCs for the Wildrose are going to cost the party - and perhaps the province - dearly when the votes are counted. Is he right? Well... he's got his doctorate in political science, so chances are good that he knows a little bit about which he speaks. Ultimately, however, it's another Journal/Herald poll that, ironically, might get Ted onto the second ballot. A poll released yesterday shows Morton in 4th place, trailing Doug Horner by just 1 point. As Morton learned ALL too well in 2006, the first ballot battle isn't to win outright, it's to finish in the top 3 and buy yourself 2 more weeks to sell memberships and mobilize your voters. Bet the farm that Morton's people went to Costco and bought several pallets of Red Bull yesterday, because they (and the 10 MLA's endorsing Morton) are going to pull out all the stops to get him that extra 2 points he needs to make the second ballot.

 

Will the provincial government look radically different under Ted Morton? Absolutely. For the better? Some would say so. But the critical question for a lot of party members as they consider their options on Saturday remains exactly the same as in 2006: If Ted Morton is given a mandate to lead this party, and if the Wildrose defectors DO come back to the mothership, will it still be the PROGRESSIVE Conservative Association of Alberta?

 

And, more to the point: Will Albertans WANT it to be?

 

Links:

 

Ted Morton campaign website

 

Calgary Herald profile and video for Ted Morton

 

 

 

 

 

PC Leadership Candidate Profile - Gary Mar

Newton's Second Law of Motion defines "momentum" as "mass multiplied by velocity".

That said, Gary Mar had better find the accelerator on his huge campaign bus, because momentum can be a fickle mistress for such a massive campaign.

Mar has been the front-runner for this race since the day after the LAST PC Leadership race. An able cabinet minister, Mar served as an MLA for his north Calgary riding from 1993 to 2007 and as a cabinet minister under Ralph Klein in the portfolios of Environment, Community Development, Education, Health and International/Intergovernmental Relations. Before being first elected at age 31, Mar was a lawyer in his hometown of Calgary, earning the much-coveted "Q.C." designation for his accomplishments in the legal field.

After leaving the political arena in 2007, Mar accepted a posting to Washington as Minister-Counsellor of the Province of Alberta to the United States. In this capacity, Mar was Alberta's point man for any issue that required the attention of U.S. lawmakers in the Capitol. This included issues such as agriculture and energy. Mar was criticized for accepting his MLA transition package while continuing to work for the government in a paid role.

Indeed, despite his accomplishments and (compared to his old boss) squeaky-clean image, controversy has dogged Mar from time to time. In addition to the severance package, which he initially had deferred and then later accepted while working in Washington, Gary also ran into trouble during this leadership race when one of his booths was photographed offering "Free Memberships" to students. After a few tense hours, the story that came from the Mar camp was that a donor had offered to pay for student memberships, rather than the suggestion that, in contravention of the rules, Mar's campaign was purchasing memberships for people. These whiffs of scandal have also served to remind voters of the Kelly Charlebois issue, when Mar's Ministry (Health & Wellness) awarded a non-tendered contract to Charlebois, Gary's former executive assistant, for "advice" that produced no written record or reports. The cost to taxpayers? A paltry $400,000. What's almost half a million between friends?

Despite criticisms old or new, valid or invalid, Mar has raised an absolute boatload of cash with which to run his campaign. Indeed, while some of his opponents drive their private vehicles to forums, Mar has run a General Election-style campaign, even having his massive and VERY visible orange campaign bus drive to the forum in Fort McMurray while Gary himself flew in days earlier. Mar is said to be spending over a quarter of a million dollars in ads over the next week, and there's probably a lot more than that in reserve for the second ballot, if required.  It's not just money that Gary's swimming in, however - it's also endorsements from sitting PC MLA's. At last count, Gary had the public backing of 26 MLA's, including half of the current cabinet. Conventional wisdom is that Gary should, by all accounts, win this race - and it's a good career move to be backing the guy who wins. This can also be seen in the very polished "fresh-out-of-university-polisci" look & feel of Gary's younger supporters, and their handlers. New executive assistants and caucus researchers and campaign managers will be the order of the day when the new leader takes over. It's unfortunate, because there are a lot of MLA's and young people who genuinely buy Gary's message and support him for all the RIGHT reasons - but they're lumped in with the career climbers.

Mar's messaging has been about "Greatness on purpose, rather than by accident", and he has opined that he feels Albertans today are more inclined to follow visionary leadership like Lougheed's in the 70s, rather than Klein's populism of the 90s.

Policy:

Mar's policies are a bit of a mish-mash on his website. There's a LOT of text, to be sure, but much of it is background. It's also hard to navigate between the "paragraph-style" content, the "bullet point policy steps", the press releases, and the one policy document that was actually in pdf format. The lack of consistency in format, though, doesn't dilute the fact that there's a lot of good stuff in there. Among the highlights:

• That the federal government designate the building of energy infrastructure to the U.S. Gulf Coast and the West Coast of Canada as a national economic priority and ensure they receive the needed national support to get done.
• Implement the recommendations of the Alberta Environmental Panel Monitoring Report on environmental monitoring of the oil sands.
• Work with industry to evaluate the merits sharing the cost of development of roads and other common infrastructure in areas of intense energy development.
• Ensuring stability in the current royalty regime for conventional oil, natural gas and the oil sands.
• Remove the discretionary power of Cabinet under Bill 50 to establish Critical Transmission Infrastructure (CTI) requirements and place it with the Legislature where all Parties can debate and approve the action. The need for CTI can also be determined, as it was in the past, by the Alberta Utilities Commission (AUC), in full consultation with industry stakeholders and Alberta consumers.
• Reach out to families and friends of seniors by developing an enhanced caregiver supports program to include respite and elder “day care” components. There are opportunities to build on existing tax credits to ensure that families and friends can stay home to care for their loved ones when it is necessary.
• Build a common entry point for access to all seniors housing and health services. The Accommodation Standards public reporting website could be built on to include information such as wait times to get into a supportive living or continuing care facility. This website could serve as a portal for information on accommodation costs and services provided.
• Work with Albertans on preparing for their senior years by encouraging financial planning and wellness initiatives.
• Establish an independent Alberta Environmental Monitoring Authority with an expert staff. This independent authority will monitor and report on the environmental impacts of developing Alberta’s energy resources, from oil sands to fracing and CO2-enhanced oil recovery.
• Prohibit bulk water exports.
• Put the implementation of Bill 36 on hold until a full dialogue has been undertaken on the two existing regional plans (the Lower Athabasca Regional Plan and the South Saskatchewan Regional Plan) and Albertans have time to see how they will be implemented. These first two plans will serve as pilots. Action on further regional plans will not proceed until we get these first two plans right
• Commit to a comprehensive public review of Alberta’s tax system, with the objectives of enhancing overall productivity, competitiveness, and innovation, creating opportunities for further job creation, and strengthening the capacity of Alberta families to participate in the global economy. This work will commence once the provincial budget is balanced in 2013/14, and a sustainable balance between revenues and expenses has been restored. Tax reductions must be affordable.
• Work with the federal government to target and fast track skilled workers needed by the Alberta economy, and to remove the cap on immigrants under the Immigrant Nominee Program (INP).
• Work with the federal government to accelerate the process for foreign credential recognition. 
• Commit to reducing the number of ministries and ministers. For example, it will put the Treasury Board and Finance and Enterprise ministries back together so that government’s spending, revenue and budget planning work hand in hand once again.
• Establishing a high school completion rate target of 100 percent, to stretch provincial efforts to ensure students complete high school.
• Pushing ahead on enhancing the role of schools as “community hubs”, so that parents and families can access various services. Schools, community agencies and service providers work together to deliver services in a coordinated, “wrap-around” approach.
• Commit to stable and predictable operating funding for schools boards. Stable and predictable funding would allow school jurisdictions to plan ahead and to know how much funding they can count on to implement long term plans and initiatives.
• Municipalities will be given full access to the education property tax base, effective the 2013 assessment year. K-12 education funding will not impacted.
• Place greater emphasis on professional development and training opportunities for public servants and make use of various leading edge online, social media and mobile device methods.
• Place greater emphasis on alternative working relationships and flexible working hours, through such approaches as remote access, to allow public servants to more effectively balance work and family obligations.

The Long & Short Of It:

If you want to know who's going to win a PC Leadership race, you follow the money and the MLA endorsements. Thus goes the conventional wisdom. If this was always the case, though, we'd be on year 6 of Premier Dinning's reign.

Gary has gone to great lengths, and spent a lot of money to get his name and face everywhere he can. His team has put together a masterful campaign. Every city and town he goes through has a guest column penned by the local MLA, talking about why they're supporting Gary. His bus has become a fixture at public events across the province. And yet, for all his talk of "Change", and despite the fact that he wasn't directly tied to the Stelmach regime, Gary is perceived as the "status quo" candidate. In fact, a lot of the PCs I hang around with have expressed the opinion that Gary is the candidate under whom the PC Government would change the LEAST - at least, until election time, when Mar's speaking style - hilariously lampooned by a local pundit in Calgary as "Droopy Dog teaching third grade" - would be put up against Raj Sherman's passion and Danielle Smith's polished libertarian soundbytes.

Mar's team has to use all of the manpower and cash at their disposal to get out the vote on Saturday. The front-runner often sees supporters staying home, on account of victory being all but assured. Gary can't afford to take victory for granted - he knows this, and needs to make sure his supporters know it, as well. But if you're betting money on the most likely winner of this race, you'd be wise to bet Mar.

26 sitting MLA's already have.

Links:

Gary Mar campaign website

Calgary Herald profile and video for Gary Mar

PC Leadership Candidate Profile - Doug Horner

Legacy.

 

Any story about Doug Horner's rise in politics has to start with the Horner legacy.

 

Doug's grandfather, Ralph, was a Senator for Saskatchewan.  At the time of Doug's birth, his father was the sitting Member of Parliament for Jasper-Edson. Three of his uncles also served as MPs. After 9 years in Ottawa, Horner's father stepped down to try his hand at provincial politics, and served as an MLA for 12 years, first as a member of the 6-strong Official Opposition PC Caucus under young firebrand Peter Lougheed, and later holding cabinet posts as Minister of Agriculture, Minister of Transportation, Minister of Economic Development and Deputy Premier.

 

So, yeah... Doug's got some family connections.

 

All that said, though, Horner seemingly resisted the siren call of political service, opting to strike out on his own as a young man. After following the money to jobs in the oilpatch and at a lumber mill, Horner attended SAIT in Calgary (a stint during which he developed an unfortunate attachment to the Calgary Stampeders), married at age 19 (!) and worked in the financial sector as a banker, as well as in agriculture, where he did sales and marketing for ConAgra in Nebraska for several years. After returning to Alberta, Horner (at age 29) enlisted and served as a Canadian Forces Reservist, fulfilling a lifelong dream. In 2001, at the urging of his MLA (Ken Kowalski) he got into the family business, winning election to the Legislative Assembly, where he has served ever since. After 3 years on the back benches, Doug got the call from Ralph Klein to sit in Cabinet as Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, and later had a very successful stint as Minister of Advanced Education and Technology under Ed Stelmach - also serving as the most recent Deputy Premier.

 

Fighting throughout the campaign to get noticed among the flashier and more controversial candidates, Horner has also had to work hard to avoid being stuck with the label "Stelmach 2.0", as many Stemach loyalists have jumped on board the Horner Campaign. Indeed, while Doug spends a great deal of time talking about the things that will change if he wins the leadership, it's worth noting that the cabinet mainstay and former number-2 man on the totem pole has 15 endorsements from sitting MLA's for whom the "old way of doing things" worked out just fine -among them Speaker Ken Kowalski, who replaced Doug's father upon his retirement under Lougheed and will celebrate his 32nd year in the Legislature this November - so, the "Change" motivation is a bit harder to believe in some cases. It's also reportedly a source of frustration that Horner has been painted as a "rural candidate", a characterization reinforced by the fact that of his 15 MLA endorsements, only one - Lindsay Blackett - comes from a constituency within one of Alberta's 2 big cities.

 

Policy:

Horner has released a LOT of policy, making his candidacy a field-day for wonks such as myself. Among the more interesting (to me) policies:

• Accelerate the development of new technologies that reduce environmental impacts, economic costs and extraction deficiencies;
• Embrace the social licence given to Alberta to develop our natural resources wisely by protecting the environment and encouraging economic diversification;
• Develop separate investment and trade strategies for China, India, Mexico, Middle East, and South America;
• Establish a stable regulatory environment and a planned approach to growth for a vibrant energy sector in Alberta;
• Give education professionals the tools and resources they need to achieve success for our students. Confront our high school dropout rate with systems and programs that reduce the rate by 10% per year over five years;
• Reduce the barriers to education by using technology tools and resources that are both scalable and distributable. Let’s become the first jurisdiction to create the virtual text book library for all students K-12;
• Working with all stakeholders in the system to remove the requirement for doctors to deliver all services face to face in order to bill. Access is the number one issue facing Albertans today and we must open the points of access to health professionals best suited to effectively treat the patient.
• Collaborating with stakeholders to minimize unnecessary residency requirements for foreign-trained doctors. Establish equivalency programmes with non-Albertan medical schools to recognize training conducted outside our province and country.
• Enabling health care professionals to practice to the full scope of their training and keep pace with innovations already practiced by several healthcare disciplines. Enable direct payment from the publicly funded system for their services.
• Establishing meaningful benchmarks for wait list times and offer Albertans options to seek medical care from other providers with the province funding a majority of those costs;
• Explore increasing coverage and options for Alberta Blue Cross.
• Introduce engagement opportunities for Senior Citizens to mentor, and participate with youth in the community, including school participation, business mentoring, and other ideas to tap the enormous wealth of knowledge and experience that our elders have;
• Establish a care-giver tax credit for family members who care for senior citizens who live in their home or nearby;
• Negotiate an Alberta-specific immigration policy with the federal government in the same manner as Quebec's immigration model, tailored to Alberta’s needs, and is flexible and responsive;
• Develop foreign academic equivalency programs that allow new graduates in targeted countries to be qualified for work in Alberta upon graduation as opposed to having to be re-qualified once landed in Alberta;
• Augment temporary foreign worker programs to allow for job transferability and qualification for full citizenship with the timely immigration of family members.
• Create an Associate Ministry whose focus is on the wellness of all Albertans in sport, fitness and nutrition. Put emphasis on our children, youth, adult and senior-citizen involvement in community-based activity programs;
• Double the funding for the Alberta Foundation for the Arts over the next three years and establish a basis for long-term planning and funding;
• Begin discussion with the AUMA and AAMDC on “MSI 2” (Municipal Sustainability Initiative 2) that includes “no strings attached” to up-front funding; a funding model designed to recognize unique challenges of high growth areas and the importance of local decisions. We need to include our Metis settlements in the discussion and the model should also recognize that our two major centres have unique issues;
• Suspend the implementation of regulations related to the Alberta Land Stewardship Act, until such time as all seven watersheds are fully studied and the implication of water-use is comprehensively understood with regard to the environment and economy;
• Determine with industry and Albertans, the current and forecast transmission capacity requirements and ensure that transmission line construction meets our anticipated capacity requirements. The final determination of transmission construction should rest with Alberta`s elected officials;
• Increasing time spent engaging Albertans in home constituencies by elected representatives on matters of importance to Albertans; and
• Eliminate hiring freezes and other imposed barriers to attracting the best and the brightest into the public service;
• Provide opportunities for Government of Alberta employees to be engaged in their communities and to contribute to volunteer organizations;
• Amend the Municipal Government Act to establish four-year terms of elected officials to allow for greater long-term planning;
• Commit to long-term funding for regional school divisions across the province, each with the authority to deliver services and also to publicly share performance metrics which benchmark and compare performance with the other provincial regions. We must have a funding model that recognizes that some areas and issues are not the same across the Province.
• Harness the brainpower and feedback of 3.7 million Albertans on a continual basis with online policy forums that promote democracy and engagement across the province;

In particular, Horner has a lot of very interesting policies regarding healthcare and promotion of healthy lifestyles, to address the cause rather than the symptom of ballooning health costs.

  

The Long & Short Of It:

 

In a race with a lot of VERY smart people, it's been suggested that Horner may be the smartest. The problems he runs into are simple politics: He's from the north. He's considered rural. He's tied to the outgoing Premier and administration. Perhaps the most damning criticism of Horner as "Premier material", though, was brought up to me at the Calgary forum: "He's extremely warm in person, like Ed, but he comes across as nerdy and boring at the front of the room, just like Ed, and Danielle's going to eat him for lunch". If the new leader is brilliant and personally warm, but loses the election, then they'll be a brilliant and warm Leader of the Opposition for the 6 months it takes the party to throw them to the wolves and pick someone else to take them to the top of the mountain again. We've seen glances, now and then, of Horner speaking passionately on health and education in particular. We need to see more of that guy in the next week. We need to see the Doug Horner who would stand toe-to-toe with Danielle Smith and Raj Sherman and give as good as he's getting. We need to see Doug Horner the way he is in front of the t.v. when Henry Burris breaks a tackle and streaks down the sideline. Fired up. Passionate. Inspiring. If we see THAT guy over these next 6 days, it might be enough to propel him onto the second ballot.

 

Links:

Doug Horner campaign website

Calgary Herald profile and video for Doug Horner

 

 

PC Leadership Candidate Profile - Rick Orman

Rick Orman is mad as hell, and he's not going to take it any more.

The PC Party, according to Orman, has strayed from its founding principles. It doesn't handle itself the way it should. It needs saving. And Rick, after 18 years away from politics, is just the man for the job - or, so says Rick.

But who IS this Rick Orman?

A Getty loyalist, Orman was a cabinet minister in the Getty PC governments of the late 80s and early 90s. When Getty was ousted as leader, Orman ran in the subsequent campaign to replace his old mentor, and finished third behind Ralph Klein and Nancy Betkowski, whom he endorsed over Klein (Betkowski went on to contest & win the Liberal Leadership and served as Leader of the Opposition under her new married name, Nancy MacBeth). Getting out of politics after his leadership loss, Orman (who married a daughter of one of Alberta's wealthiest families) went into the energy sector, where he founded several companies and did business both domestically and internationally.

Rick takes a lot of offence over the sort of management he's seen from the PCs in recent years. So much so, in fact, that in listening to him speak you'd think he's running to be leader of an opposition party. The royalty change? Terrible idea. Deficit spending? Unacceptable, regardless of circumstance. Not keeping up with the Heritage Trust Fund? Brutal decision. He suggests intimidation of doctors is taking place. He's sure that the government is passing land use bills because they want to steal your land. And the band plays on...

Rick's campaign has been wrought with difficulties, however. He launched his campaign website prematurely, with large sections sitting empty. His social media approach was largely panned at the outset. His well-publicized reluctance to participate in public forums, calling them a "waste of time". His campaign's email foibles resulting in an automatic lock-down by Shaw's servers, and the subsequent tone-deaf response from his spokesman, who simultaneously exposed his candidate to characterizations of "elitist" and "unable to get his calls returned from major party supporters and donors". Rank-and-file party members are criticizing the Orman campaign's targeting of specific ethnic communities. Not helping matters is the fact that, for all his insistence that the 5 other candidates be held accountable for the fiscal performance of their governments, he hasn't yet been able to explain why he shouldn't be held accountable for the performance of the Getty government, which (while he was in cabinet) doubled the provincial debt and ultimately built the mess that Ralph Klein needed a chainsaw to cut his way out of in the 90s.

Policy:

This is normally where I'd write about the candidate's policies. Rick, however, doesn't have policies. According to his website: "Policies hatched by a small group of people, who remain nameless behind closed doors, are no way to make laws that affect everyone". Instead, Orman offers "Vision Statements", in which he makes commitments (which read a WHOLE lot like those awful, top-down, secretly-constructed-by-shadowy-figures Policies, to this blogger's eye) and is careful to link them back to the PC Party Principles (where the "fiscal responsibility" principle was during his time in the Getty cabinet isn't immediately clear - perhaps it was on vacation?)

Among those commitments:

◦Re-focus government to support new business development, international trade, labour market planning, innovation in skills training and updating, research, product innovation and new technologies to enhance environment protection.

◦Repeal the Alberta Land Stewardship Act (Bill 36) Act , which needlessly sterilizes resources that generate economic growth for large and small communities throughout the province and undermines the property rights of Albertans.

◦Full disclosure of findings of Health Quality Council’s investigation into allegations of wrongdoing. Confirmed cases will be handed over to appropriate authorities for immediate action. Will appoint a Judicial Inquiry if there is reasonable doubt surrounding the thoroughness of the investigation by the Health Quality Council.


◦Negotiation of a new five-year agreement with teachers.


◦Reverse the province’s recent decision to move all lottery revenues into the General Revenue Fund. Rick will restore the Lottery Fund to its original purpose, which included funding for community enhancement projects. Rick will also support increasing the portion of lottery funds allocated to community enhancement projects and arts and culture by $100 million next April 1, 2012.

◦25% reduction in Cabinet.


◦Initiate a review of the 191 government agencies to assess continuing need.

◦In consultation with First Nations and Metis, establish a Premier’s Task Force to identify and remove barriers that are preventing the full, active and meaningful participation of First Nations and Metis in Alberta’s economy.

◦Within ninety days of being elected Premier, Rick will engage post-secondary officials in discussions to determine the most effective approach for implementing a $25,000 Alberta tax credit for graduating students from Alberta post-secondary institutions who choose to remain and work in Alberta.

The Long & Short Of It:

Rick Orman is going to have to have sold an absolute TONNE of memberships to see his name carried forward to a second ballot. Not because of his ideas, or his background. Not because of his campaign, per se. It's because he's the only candidate who has essentially declared war on the current iteration of the PC Party. It's as though he's saying "Things are all screwed up, and every one of you is to blame for enabling these jerks". Needless to say, that tactic isn't going to win Rick a lot of love from existing members. So, if someone's going to carry Rick to victory, it simply HAS to be the people to whom he's sold memberships over the past 6 months.

Rick represents change, all right - but is it progress? Or a trip back to the Getty days?



Links:

Rick Orman campaign website

Calgary Herald profile and video for Rick Orman


 

PC Leadership Candidate Profiles - Primer

Nation, almost 5 years ago, this blog was born.  The first post was a welcome. The 2nd was a review of the recent PC Leadership Forum. And the third was the first in a series of profiles of the candidates to replace outgoing Premier Ralph Klein (that first profile was long-shot candidate Ed Stelmach. Whatever happened to that guy?).

This blog was, in effect, born to provide coverage that other outlets just weren't providing at the time.

I'm happy to report that the mainstream media have stepped up their game during the 2011 PC Leadership race - in particular, the Edmonton Journal and Calgary Herald have done some fantastic work. The Journal's "Brady Bunch"-esque videos comparing candidate policies are great, while admittedly a little creepy at times. And the Herald has published some very in-depth profiles of the candidates themselves, along with video.

All that said, though, I'm not abdicating my own responsibility to provide some unbiased thoughts on the 5 men and one woman running to be Alberta's next Premier.  I've drawn names, in the presence of witnesses, from my pith helmet (don't ask), and this is the order of the profiles to be published daily between now and Friday the 16th (the day before the first ballot):

Profile 1: Rick Orman
Profile 2: Doug Horner
Profile 3: Gary Mar
Profile 4: Ted Morton
Profile 5: Alison Redford
Profile 6: Doug Griffiths

Again, I can't stress this enough: One of these 6 WILL be Alberta's Premier. They will, at the VERY least, determine how $35 Billion (with a "B") in public funds will be spent ("public funds" being a political euphemism for "money that belongs to you and me") and heavily influence the timing of the next provincial election. So, I'm begging you: Get informed. Here, and elsewhere. Slap down your $5, even on the day of the voting, and make an informed choice - even if you've never considered supporting the PC's before. This party - heck, ALL parties - determines its policies based on the participation and expressed opinions of its membership. Throw a Laurier down on the table, and you're one of those members, at which point your ideas matter just as much as mine or anyone else's.

You want change?

Don't WAIT for it.

Make it happen.

Vote.





Note: The Journal's above-mentioned videos are a bit tricky to find, so I've posted them below for your viewing pleasure.

"Tell Me About Yourself"

"Health Care"

"Infrastructure Priorities"

"Economics"

"Oilsands Responsibility"



The Race to the Premier's Office - 16 Days to the First Ballot (Who's Going To Bring Me Donut Mill?)

Nation, long time no speak...  I mean, granted, we've gone longer...  but in the midst of a hotly-contested leadership race, 2 weeks is just 2 weeks too long...  ;)

It's been an interesting 15 days, to be certain...  2 party-sponsored leadership forums, policy announcements by the barrel full, and the familiar game of "This candidate said THIS!!!" - "No, that's not what I said". Ahh...  it's never boring, that's to be sure.

Here are some of the highlights (and, in some cases, lowlights) of the past 2 weeks, for those of you who might have missed anything... (candidates in alphabetical order, by first name)

Alison Redford
Redford has come out in favour of the provincial government investing in the Alberta Creative Hub, a film studio and production facility proposed near Canada Olympic Park in Calgary. Alison has also taken aim at cellular roaming charges - a stance that hit a little close to home, it would seem, as the spokesman for Telus had to call up his buddies at his former employer and write a column that ran the very next day, rebutting Redford's claims. Redford has also gotten into the sometimes sticky issue of MLA pay, committing to make the remuneration much more clear for MLAs, cabinet ministers and leaders, as well as eliminating "committee bonuses" and proposing that MLA pay and perks be handed over to an independent panel to be set.

Doug Griffiths
Griffiths continues to impress at the party leadership forums. While this blogger isn't picking "winners and losers" at these events, that doesn't mean the party faithful and general public aren't doing the same - and of the 6 attendees to the Lethbridge forum that I randomly polled after the event, 4 named Griffiths as the most impressive -  including 2 wearing Mar buttons. If he keeps up his performance, the televised debates in Edmonton and Calgary should be a boon. He ran into issues at a privately-organized forum in Calgary for 2-and-a-half candidates (Gary Mar was double-booked, and oddly sent Iris Evans in his place), though, when he came to the defence of child welfare workers and told a personal story about what his father would likely do if he felt Doug's kids were in danger. Griffiths was, according to one person in the room, "Spitting mad" when the quotes were used by a local reporter to draw a reaction from the grandparents of a recent tragic case.  Griffiths apologized to the grandparents for any hurt he might have caused them, but it's a stark lesson learned in media relations. Griffiths is moving on, having released the crown jewel of his policy platform, the Community Development plank, yesterday on his website.

Doug Horner
Horner made news yesterday with his proposal that healthcare wait time benchmarks be set for procedures, and if the wait time exceeds that benchmark that the Alberta Government pay to have patients flown out to other jurisdictions for their procedure. Doug has also committed to doubling the funding for the Alberta Foundation for the Arts over the next 3 years. He was the lucky recipient of some jabs from Gary Mar in a meeting with the Edmonton Journal editorial board this week over changes to the province's research funding framework that took place while it was Horner's responsibility. This is good news for Horner, as Mar is too smart to attack a rival candidate who doesn't pose an internally-perceived threat to his front-runner status.

Gary Mar
Mar took an unexpected leap 2 weeks ago when he came out in favour of the province looking at private health delivery. It wasn't unexpected that Mar felt that way - he was Ralph Klein's health minister, after all - but it *was* unexpected that Gary felt a need to even open that can of worms. With 4 former Ministers of Health on Team Gary - Mar himself, Liepert, Hancock and Evans - the health file is one he's well-stocked to defend. Mar's well-organized campaign is running on all cylinders, with buzzing hospitality suites, his General Election-style campaign stops, on-line presence and co-ordinated policy releases and Letters to the Editor in local papers and MSM webpages. Also showing on those pages of late, though, are columns and blogs like a recent one by Mark Lisac on the Calgary Herald site, that point out the Mar campaign may be playing it TOO safe with the lead. As an Oilers fan, I'm not sure I know what it's like to play with a lead, but I understand the metaphor.

Rick Orman
Orman took a bit of a hit 2 weeks ago when his former boss, Don Getty, endorsed Doug Horner (the son of another former Getty cabinet member). Since then, though, Orman has been firmly on the offense, claiming that the Athabasca Land Use plan will cost the province $150 Billion (with a B) in lost royalties, calling the plan "Third World". Rick proposes reforming the immigration policies of the province, taking aim at the factors he feel impede immigration to Alberta, and that contribute to our labour shortage - like training and retention policies. Orman out-bid Ted Morton on education tax credits, offering post-secondary graduates tax credits of up to $25,000 if they stay in Alberta for 5 years after graduation. Just a few days ago, he also promised that one of the government ministries that would be eliminated under his leadership would be Aboriginal Affairs, calling the government's attitude towards First Nations and Metis "paternalistic". Gun blazing, that's our Rick.

Ted Morton
Morton brought out the "big guns" this week, with the release of his Fiscal policies. Of note: A full roll-back of the salary increases for the Premier and cabinet, mandatory referendums on any income tax hike proposed by government, and a commitment to have Alberta "back in the black" in 2 years. Ted also spoke about the need to put "conservation back into conservatism", and unveiled a plan to fund capital spending in provincial parks through lottery revenue.  In Lethbridge, Morton identified the building of west-bound pipelines to ship Alberta's energy products globally as "my number one priority", so that Alberta can get the global price for its energy resources, rather than the North American price.



I wanted to talk a little bit about the forum in Lethbridge, given that I was in attendance. On the whole, I thought the event was well organized. The questions were solid, the time limits were rigidly enforced (much to the detriment of Horner all night, who had a lot to say), and the event was attended by well in excess of 400 people (with 4,000 more watching online).

The only criticism I have of the event was the set-up of the candidate booths afterwards. Now, I know it's nobody's fault about the floor plan of the hotel and conference rooms - that's just how it is. There are only so many places in Lethbridge you can book an event like this. I get it. But the lighting in the atrium lobby was absolutely terrible - you couldn't see more than 5 feet in front of your face. I'm sure it impacted membership sales and post-event mingling.

All that said, though, the hospitality suites were certainly hopping. In particular, the Mar and Horner events were VERY well attended shortly after the event, though I'm told that by the end of the night (long after this blogger and his MSM travelling buddy had retired) the Griffiths suite was jammed to the rafters - and given the relatively small size of the room, that can't have been very comfortable. It was a suite, though, and so by its very definition a frill to the "don't have money to spend on a lot of frills" Griffiths campaign. It's a lesson sometimes the provincial government would do well to heed.

I was hoping to attend tonight's forum in Red Deer, however my long-awaited photographer's appointment (for a project you'll be hearing a lot about soon) has been changed last-minute, and I'll be tied up and away from the computer. Be sure to follow #pcldr on Twitter for coverage of the event, or watch it live on the PC Party website.

Who's going to bring me Donut Mill - anyone? Anyone?

The Race to the Premier's Office - 31 Days to the First Ballot

I don't know what to tell you, Nation.

On the one hand, it seems to all the world as though the 6 candidates for PC Leader are just floating placidly on the pond of public consciousness, not making any waves and waiting to drift into the sun.

As anyone who knows ducks (or political campaigns, for that matter) would tell you, however, there's some absolutely FURIOUS paddling going on underneath the surface of that pond.

Here's what you may have missed this week, in the race to crown Alberta's next Premier...



Klein endorses Mar, Getty endorses Horner
Neither former Premier mentioned particular policies in their endorsements, instead making them endorsements of the men themselves. The Klein endorsement will likely carry more weight than that of Don Getty, however the actual real value of endorsements is very much open for debate. I have a lot of friends holding PC memberships. I have yet to hear one say "I didn't have any idea for whom I was going to vote, but if Gary's good enough for Ralph, he's good enough for me".


The Dangers of Twitter
Rick Orman got into a bit of a tough situation this week on Twitter, when he started trading shots with fellow PC Leadership candidate and Twitter Ninja Doug Griffiths over what he imagined (emphasis intended) was Griffiths' advocacy for a provincial sales tax. The exchange can be found here, courtesy of Stuart A. Thomson transcription services. What's touched on is the simultaneous exchange that was going on between the 2 and Walter Schwabe of Fused Logic, who had offered space for both men to debate on live-to-the-web streaming video. Orman refused repeated efforts by Schwabe to confirm if he would be willing to take part in the debate, leaving Griffiths without a dance partner and leaving Schwabe a little hot under the collar.  In light of Orman's clearly expressed belief that leadership forums and debates are a waste of time in a race where memberships sold - not policy, or popularity, or public events - will be the biggest determining factor of success - his reluctance to "waste his time" debating another candidate on internet video makes sense. My response would be that getting televised on the web is better than getting televised NOWHERE, but Rick disagrees, as is his right. I'd just remind him, though, that Twitter isn't about broadcasting, it's about conversation. When you ignore the people who are trying to converse with you, you alienate them. And when they run web media companies...  well, remember the old adage: "Never get into a fight with someone who buys ink by the barrel". Electrons are the new ink.


The Dangers of Twitter, continued...
Rick just had a bad night. He really did. At one point during the evening's Twestivities, the Orman/Griffiths repartee was interrupted by this tweet, from Alberta Party President Chris LaBossiere:

@Rick_Orman I would love to hear a couple examples of "innovation in the tax system" that would help us balance our budget. Help me out.

Now, at this point as a PC Leadership contender, your spidey-senses have to be kicking in. "Innovation in the tax system" certainly sounds like one of those political euphemisms designed to say something without actually saying it - like "increasing revenues" means "hiking taxes". And Orman said as much in response:

@ChrisLaBossiere not a language I understand. "innovation in tax system". What is that code for?

The problem, which Labossiere made clear in his next, incredulous tweet, was self-evident:

@Rick_Orman Umm... it wasn't a trick question. This is YOUR wording from your website.  

And indeed, that's exactly where it IS from. LaBossiere didn't pluck the wording out of thin air; he was quoting Orman's website, and asking for clarification. Orman has not, to my knowledge, explained why he thought a term from his own website, under the heading "Rick's Commitments", was unfamiliar to him. It certainly couldn't be that the candidate didn't know what was on his own website - that'd be unfathomable.


Mar comes out in favour of private healthcare
The only thing shocking about this position, long-held as Daveberta outlines on his blog, is that Gary felt the need to go there. It could be that his internal polling is giving him some ugly numbers - in fact, that's the only reason I see for the perceived front-runner to voluntarily wade into the private health care debate. Rest assured, this position is going to get Gary some headlines for the next while - but are they really the sort of headlines that he needed? Or is this a case of "there's no such thing as bad press"?


Senate Elections on the near horizon
All 6 leadership candidates have come out in favour of holding Senate elections by 2012, in anticipation of filling upcoming vacancies in Alberta's representation in the Upper House. Candidate Doug Horner, however, wants the Alberta senate elections held in conjunction with simultaneous senate elections in BC and Saskatchewan, turning senate elections - and duly elected senators - from an Alberta-exclusive phenomenon into a regional one and putting senate reform back on the federal map in a big way.


"Read My Lips..."
5 of the 6 PC Leadership candidates have pledged they will consider no increases in taxes, no new taxes and no changes to the energy royalty structure. The black sheep, Doug Griffiths is leaving everything on the table, citing the gap between the $12 Billion we collect in income and business taxes versus the $39 Billion we spend each year. "We don't pay for the services we get. We rely on royalties and then we wonder why we ride this rollercoaster?... Maybe we should review the tax system and pay for what we get. That's all I'm saying. That's why it's part of that whole big fiscal discussion we need to have." Griffiths said to the Calgary Herald. If that chorus sounds familiar, it's because it's a call for a discussion that was also made this past May by none other than Saint Peter, Peter Lougheed, when he suggested the new PC Leader would have to take a good close look at the tax base to determine how to fund programs and infrastructure for the long-term, preparing for the day that the Golden Goose (the energy sector) stops laying eggs (my words, not his). If, in light of this, 5 of the 6 candidates are pledging no new taxes and no increases, it would seem that Griffiths was the only leadership candidate listening when Lougheed was speaking.


The next PC Leadership Forum takes place this Thursday at 7 pm, in Medicine Hat. The event will be live-streamed via the web through the PC Party website. I'll be watching from the friendly confines of Enlightened Savage World Headquarters. Since the winner of this contest will become the Premier of Alberta, I'd urge you to watch, as well. They're YOUR tax dollars, after all - no matter WHICH party you're inclined to support. 

Shoulda Carried the "1"...

Nation, typos happen. We've all zigged linguistically or mathematically when we should have zagged.

When politicians do it, however, it's a bit more of a problem. Because, quite simply put, we don't know whether or not we can trust a lot of them. They're up there with lawyers and used car salesmen in our public esteem, as "people who very probably would lie to my face if it would help them earn money/win". So, when a politician gets something wrong, we don't know if it's because they honestly made a mistake, or because they're trying to intentionally mislead us.

This problem reared its head this week when Wildrose Party candidate Richard Jones, of Calgary-Acadia (nee Egmont), posted the following on his Facebook page (click on image to enlarge):

Now, Jones' indignance - which is quite possibly linked to his future career prospects, let's remember - is based on the absolutely brutal statistic that he gleaned from the National Post column listed underneath his comment. In said column, Lorne Gunter quotes a report from the Fraser Institute in which the "$10,204 per capita" number appears.

The gist of the column - and the report - is that Alberta has a spending problem. Spending has increased nearly 40%, adjusting for inflation, since the Golden Age of King Ralph in 1996. That's certainly a discussion I'd be happy to have with anyone. But there's something about the figure that Richard quoted that just seems...  off.

Let's see...

"Today, the PC Government spends $10,204 per person each month"... and he's obviously committed to that number, because he then extrapolates that, for his family of 6, that works out to over $720,000 per year. A solid and meaningful number. Those Tories must be out of control. I mean, let's extrapolate that number further, and see what those PC jerks are spending in TOTAL each year!

• $10,204 per person, per month.
• 12 months per year.
• That works out to $122,448 per person, per year.
• There were 3,609,319 people living in Alberta in 2010, according to provincial figures.

That means the Tories are spending...

$441953892912 per year.

That's a big number. Let's add some commas.

$441,953,892,912.


Wait...





What?


The PC's are spending $441 BILLION per year?

No wonder Richard's so angry...  Now *I'M* angry, too!  Let's get rid of those free-spending morons!

Of course, a look at the budget would tell you that Richard's math is off, by a bit. $402 Billion, to be exact. Which is a lot of money. It's about 17 months worth of total FEDERAL spending, actually.

In fairness, it could be that Richard simply misunderstood the figure he was looking at. In particular, this could be true if he took Lorne's word for it and didn't actually read the Fraser Institute report which Lorne linked to from his column (it can be found here). Page 28, Figure 5. The truth is, the Government of Alberta spends $10,204 PER YEAR per capita, not "per month", as Richard asserted. The total amount that Ed Stelmach spends on Richard's family of 6 is $61,224 each year, over $33,000 of which is for those silly frills "health care" and "public education".

I'm trying to give Richard the benefit of the doubt here, because if he DID understand the true figure, the only other conclusion we could come to is that he was intentionally misleading us. Which, of course, I'd never accuse him of. In fact, I'd be happy to post his clarification in this space.

Albertans need to have a serious, open and frank discussion about taxes and about spending. These are adult conversations, requiring the utmost care and detail because they affect so many people in so many serious ways. We owe it to ourselves, to our fellow Albertans, and to future generations to get it RIGHT, rather than to throw soundbytes and factoids at each other to try and "beat the other guys".

Is spending "out of control"? I don't think so. I think it's higher than it should be. I think we're making up for the deplorable lack of program and infrastructure spending in the mid-90's for the most part, but there's also fat to be cut, and inefficiencies to address.

But let's do it with the real facts on the table, and calculators in hand.

Like grown-ups - neighbours, friends - trying to make the province better.

Not like politicians trying to win a job.

Our next generation deserves better than that.

The Race to the Premier's Office - 38 Days to the First Ballot

Hello, Nation...

As panicked school children wonder where their summer holidays have gone, we take a gander at the calendar and realize we need but tear off one more page for the long-awaited PC Leadership election to be upon us. Political watchers are divided about whom the eventual winner might be, but few are proving foolish enough to predict a first ballot victory.

The race seems to have picked up some steam over the past couple of weeks, as Albertans digest the implications of recent polls suggesting that the winner of the race to replace Premier Ed Stelmach won't just be holding the job for a few months, but very likely 5 years or more. It's a real race, to select a real leader who's going to have a real impact.

Game on.

Here's what you may have missed since last we spoke...

Gary Mar took a swipe at Alison Redford in a statement he made referencing Edmonton's tragically high murder rate for 2011. His suggestion that the provincial government, and Redford as Justice Minister, didn't follow through on funding the Safe Communities initiative was met with swift rebuttal by Redford, who in turn criticised Mar for (I'm paraphrasing, here) using tragic and senseless crimes to score political points. The 2 took their argument to the airwaves, appearing on the Rutherford radio program last Friday. Both campaigns, not surprisingly, felt their candidate won that showdown. Redford ended the discussion telling Mar "Next time, let's do this on Health Care". Mar's campaign took some heat shortly thereafter when it was alleged a junior team member had called into the program under a false name to lob a softball question at Mar. The campaign, for their part, says nothing like that was ever suggested or authorized, and if it DID happen, it would have been a volunteer who took matters into their own hands.

Later that same day, Redford was endorsed by the Calgary Police Association, which represents almost 2,000 Calgary Police Service members. The organization will not be donating money to Redford, but will encourage members to buy PC Party memberships in order to vote in the leadership race.

Earlier this week, Gary Mar gained the endorsement of current Minister of Education Dave Hancock. This brings the total number of former Ministers of Health on Team Mar to FOUR, with Gary himself, Hancock, Ron Liepert, and Iris Evans. It's enough to make Raj Sherman lose sleep.

Just last night, Rick Orman hosted a reported crowd of several hundred at Wurst Restaurant & Beerhall, a much celebrated new addition to Calgary's dining scene for those of us with "Ober" in our names. ;)  The big news coming out of that event was Orman's call for a full operational review of provincial government expenditures. His argument was that the province doesn't have a revenue problem, it has a spending problem (an argument that worked for Ralph Klein when running against the record of the free-spending Getty cabinet, of which Orman had been a member for 7 years).

The candidates all attended the Alberta Teachers' Association Leadership Forum this morning. The reviews were generally positive, though the most muted, polite applause seemed to be directed at former University of Calgary Professor Ted Morton. The OTHER professional educator in the race, former junior high school teacher Doug Griffiths, received boisterous applause and cheering at several points, particularly in his closing statement when he pointed out, in response to an ATA table placard, "...the future, it's why teachers teach... it's also why they run to become Premier".

The 6 candidates will square off again in Ft. McMurray this Thursday, starting at 7 pm. I expect it's a safe bet that Energy and Royalties will be popular topics, and that the Mar/Redford and Orman/Mar jabs of the past few weeks may continue. The forum will be live-streamed on the PC Party Website.  I'll be watching the event from Gary Mar's Calgary HQ, and talking to his team for reactions afterwards.




NOTE TO CAMPAIGNS: This (undecided) PCAA member, who writes a blog that a few people read, is only available to watch 2 more forums from your Calgary HQ's - the Medicine Hat and Edmonton forums. The others - Lethbridge, Calgary, and Red Deer - I'll be live-blogging from. You know how to reach me to extend an invite. First-come, first-served. ;)

The Race to the Premier's Office - 52 Days to the First Ballot

Nation, this blog isn't going to become JUST about the PC Leadership Race over the next few months...  but, it would be stupid and, quite frankly, irresponsible to NOT cover the race which will determine who gets to spend my tax money. That's the nice thing about being a blogger - no Editor telling me what to cover.

There WILL be other topics coming - one in particular on the Democratic Reform proposals recently released by the Alberta Party that is worth looking forward to - but, for now, it's once again "#pcldr Time".

Here's what you might have missed over the past 6 days since the last Leadership Update post...

- The PC's have tweaked some of the rules ahead of their second leadership forum, which takes place tomorrow night in Grande Prairie starting at 7 pm (live streaming on the Alberta PC website). In particular, several of the camps were calling for longer time allowances to flesh out their ideas and vision - adding a minute to their opening statements, doubling the time to answer direct questions and doubling (to 1 minute) the time to rebut. This is thought to benefit Doug Griffiths and Alison Redford in particular, as both had a lot to say at the Vermilion forum and the 30 second rebuttal limit seemed to stymie Alison in particular. The change is considered by some party insiders to be potentially dangerous for perceived frontrunner Gary Mar, whose speaking style in Vermilion seemed focused on the standard 20-second soundbyte (despite his later criticism of the format as not allowing enough time to hold sitting MLA's to account on their records). Stretching those answers out to a minute or longer might throw Mar off his rhythm. Then again, it might not - it's not Gary's first barn dance. I guess we'll all have to tune in to find out.

- Ted Morton has suggested that in order to fund a new arena to host the local hockey heroes, Edmonton might consider a 1% consumption tax. Now, while "those who would use it should pay for it" makes good common sense, it's still worth noting that I got an email a few hours ago from the Ted Morton who ran for the PC Leadership in 2006, appalled that someone using his name and likeness would endorse the idea of creating a new tax.

- The Calgary Herald and Edmonton Journal have commissioned a poll by Environics, which sought the opinions of 900 Albertans from across the province on a number of issues. As far as the PC Leadership race goes, the respondents (who were randomly-chosen Albertans, and not necessarily PC Party members or supporters), indicated their support as follows:

Gary Mar 12.1%
Ted Morton 8%
Alison Redford 6%
Rick Orman 4.7%
Doug Horner 4.7%
Doug Griffiths 1.5%

(quick correction for the Herald folks: Dinning led on the first ballot only in 2006; Stelmach led after the 2nd by almost 500 votes over Dinning, and won on the 3rd).

Now we all know what polls are good for (hint: it involves dogs), but Environics is reputable enough to at least have this sort of result steer some of the otherwise uncommitted donor money in interesting directions.

It's worth noting, more than 6 weeks from the first ballot, that a mere 4 weeks before the Calgary Municipal Election, Ric McIver polled a dominant first-place with 43% of decided supporters, compared to 28% for Barb Higgins and just 8% for eventual winner Naheed Nenshi. So, campaigns matter, and 6 weeks is an eternity in politics. Nenshi overcame a 35-point deficit to win. Even polling last, Griffiths would be in first place with a mere 11-point leap. It's still anyone's ball game. Gary's people know this very well - some of them were working for Ric and Barb.

- Lindsay Blackett, MLA for Calgary-North West and Minister of Culture & Community Spirit, has endorsed Doug Horner for PC Leader. Blackett is Horner's first MLA endorsement from Calgary.

- Peter Sandhu, MLA for Edmonton-Manning, has endorsed Ted Morton. So has Rob Anders.

- Doug Griffiths was the subject of a piece that ran in the Globe & Mail this week. Griffiths, a former teacher himself, is said to be garnering attention from teachers in the province as result of his strong pro-education statements in the first Leadership forum.

- Alison Redford is talking about bringing fresh perspectives to the PC Party, as her tour of Alberta continues.

- Gary Mar released an iPhone app this week. I downloaded it (of course). It's good. You can download it from the iTunes Store.

- Rick Orman wishes he wasn't wasting his time doing the Leadership forums.

The Race to the Premier's Office - 58 Days to the First Ballot

Nation, the race to replace Ed Stelmach as leader of the Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta is now, by any measure, under way. While nominations opened in mid-June, it was just 6 days ago that the nomination period ended. All 6 previously declared candidates had their paperwork and deposits accepted by the party, and they will appear on the first ballot.

I thought I'd take a quick spin through the candidates, and see what it is that they and their campaigns have been doing to this point to try and capture the imagination of the members of the PCAA - and, by extension, the people of Alberta.

In alphabetical order, by first name...

Alison Redford made a heck of a good impression on my 9 year-old niece. She's now torn between being a ballerina, a doctor, or the Premier of Alberta when she grows up. As I tweeted at the time "it would seem 'hope' is contagious".

Redford has spent a lot of time early in her campaign in Fort McMurray, and talking Energy. One of her most recent announcements was her position that Alberta should take the lead in developing a Canadian Energy Strategy. From her press release:

"We need to take the lead on this issue," says Redford. "It is not leadership to that say we need to be afraid of Ottawa imposing environmental standards on our province. We have the opportunity to work with both Stephen Harper's government and industry to establish world standards in environmental protection. Albertans know more about this issue than virtually anyone in the world. Let's use that knowledge to set standards that we know are practical and effective."

The focus on the Energy sector is an interesting one for Redford, given that one of her opponents has worked in the oilpatch for 2 decades, and another has the backing of Alberta's current Minister of Energy. She's definitely giving the impression that she's in this fight to win it, however, by taking the fight to them instead of waiting for their own releases and then responding. It's a strategy reminiscent of the Nenshi "Big Ideas" in the Calgary municipal campaign, which shouldn't be surprising considering Alison's campaign is being run by former Team Nenshi big wheel Stephen Carter. Alison again channelled her inner Naheed when she challenged Gary Mar to a one-on-one Health Care debate, "any time, any place". It's hard to turn down challenges like that without looking like you're running away - ask the perceived front-runners in Calgary's mayoral race how that turned out for them after the votes were counted.

Incidentally...  Alison: I challenge you to take me out to lunch. Any food truck of your choosing. I await your response. ;)

Doug Griffiths has been quietly buzzing from living room to living room, making use of the best resource he has at his disposal: Doug Griffiths. Much-rumoured to be short on cash, Griffiths finds himself without the resources to be shuttled around the province in a giant motorcoach with his face plastered on the side of it, so he's going back to his roots: Talking with people, about what they think matters. Doug's focus has been generational: He's asking people how to build an Alberta for their grandkids to enjoy.

The early knock against Griffiths was that he was "too young and inexperienced" to run the province. The rebuttal to those criticisms was typically good-natured, though no less on-target: Doug is the same age as Danielle Smith, and has been an MLA working for the people of Alberta for 9 years - that's 9 years longer than Smith, the "Premier-in-Waiting" of Wildrose lore. Subsequent criticisms have tried to paint him as an "insider, unable to change". Anyone who has paid attention to the inner workings of the PC Caucus would tell you, Griffiths was about as likely to get a full cabinet appointment as blogger Dave Cournoyer. As a former school teacher, Griffiths keeps education policy close to his heart. Speaking to the Calgary Herald about recent job cuts in education, Doug was quoted:

"The best way to transform our economy and ensure our success for generations to come is to make sure we have the best education system from kindergarten to post-secondary and all the research and development components that go with it," Griffiths said.

Griffiths is going to have to visit a lot of living rooms and convert a lot of undecided Albertans into proselytizing Griffiths Supporters in order to make up the ever-widening gap between what he needs to do to win, and what he can afford to do. He's been the most personal of the candidates to this point - folks who ran into him at Stampede breakfasts remarked over and over to me about how genuine he seems - and he gets full marks for doing all of his own Tweeting and blogging rather than farming it out to staffers (his campaign staff, from Campaign Manager on down, is entirely comprised of volunteers). The question is, can Griffiths - easily one of the most tech-savvy and approachable MLA's, from any party - translate "Tweeps" into "votes"?

Doug Horner has been collecting so many endorsements from MLA's and Cabinet Ministers he's probably keeping his "doubles" in a shoe box to trade to other kids or put in the spokes of his bike. At last count, Horner had the endorsement of no less than 12 of his caucus colleagues, including Speaker Ken Kowalski and sweetest-woman-on-earth Genia Leskiw.

Part of the problem for Horner at this point, though, is that 9 of those endorsements are coming from what most would term "northern Alberta" - which is to say, from constituencies north of Edmonton. The PC Party has traditionally favoured an unofficial system where the leadership would alternate between the north and south - and if this pattern holds, the PC power-brokers in Calgary are going to be working hard to keep Horner out.

The knock against Horner has been his strong ties to the outgoing Premier - indeed, it's been suggested that Horner comes as a package deal with Stelmach's Chief of Staff Ron Glen and most of his northern and rural party connections, as well as with his policies themselves. Doug hasn't gone to a whole lot of effort to criticize the past decisions or direction of government, either - rightly perceiving that it would be a tough sell to convince voters that the former Deputy Premier was opposed to the decisions that were being made around the cabinet table.

Rather than focus on his own past, though, Horner has come out with an impressive list of policies. Most recently, he postulated about the value of Alberta coming up with its own immigration policy, much as Quebec currently does, in order to address workforce shortages. As one Horner supporter put it to me:

"You need more doctors, but they don't grow on trees. They train perfectly good doctors in India, Poland and the Philippines, though - so why wouldn't we try to get them to come to Coaldale or Athabasca instead of Vancouver or Montreal?"

Gary Mar has been spreading so much orange across Alberta in his motor coach that he probably owes Sunkist royalty fees. Mar's rolling in caucus endorsements - 17 so far - and in donations. While the exact numbers aren't yet available, he certainly seems to be SPENDING the most, at any rate. The mainstream media line has been that Gary is running a "General Election-style campaign", and it's hard to argue that point.

Of course, being the perceived front-runner in a campaign has its drawbacks - just ask Jim Dinning. It paints a big, fat "bull's eye" on your back. While Mar spent the last 3 years working to advance Alberta's interests in Washington, that hasn't stopped one of his opponents from trying to paint him as a Stelmach lackey - despite the fact that the height of Mar's previous political influence was under the Premiership not of Ed Stelmach, but rather of Ralph Klein. Another opponent has challenged Gary - a former Minister of Health, let's recall - to a Health Care debate "any time, any place".

This attention, though, certainly seems to not be affecting Gary's ability to have a good time. One of the high points of the leadership race thus far, in my opinion, is the "Cooking With Gary: Flank Steak" video his team did up. I haven't tried it myself - can't get past the fish sauce. But the video shows us a side of Gary Mar that we wouldn't otherwise have gotten to peek at - and if anyone tries to tell you that these politicians are exactly the same when they're relaxed as they are when they're in Question Period, just smack them upside the head, L. Jethro Gibbs-style.

I have heard quiet criticisms from some PC's - both inside and outside of other campaigns - that Mar's backstage team is running some pretty grungy, old-school political manoeuvres. In a vacuum, I'm inclined to dismiss such allegations as tripe. There are a lot of people I know who are actively working on Gary's campaign who are of the highest calibre and class. I have all the respect in the world for these people, and don't believe they'd be party to such garbage. But I'm not talking about merely one or two rumours from competing camps... IF this kind of stuff is going on, I've got to believe that Gary, and most of his team for that matter, are completely unaware. As he himself wrote on his campaign blog:

We must remember why we are candidates in this Progressive Conservative leadership race. It’s because we care about the Party and we care about Alberta. I care deeply. So let’s talk openly, let’s be transparent and let’s be inclusive. Each and every candidate brings a unique perspective and the best Alberta will be built by hearing from all points of view.

Mar is the man to catch at this point... but 58 days is a long time. 58 days ago Anthony Weiner was a shoo-in to win re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives, if he didn't decide to run for - and very possibly win - the Mayor's job in New York City. Now, he's a punchline. Gary's a smart man - he won't take his foot off the gas. The question is: Does anyone else have the horsepower to catch him?

Rick Orman is not in this race to make friends. If there was any doubt as to this fact, his recently released campaign cartoons painting Ed Stelmach as a hapless dupe and Orman's 5 opponents as a gang of backstabbers should make his position crystal clear.

Orman has spent a lot of time, effort and money suggesting that the current PC Party has strayed from its founding principles. In particular, he lists "Fiscal and Economic Responsibility" as the first of those principles (just as they appear on the PC Alberta website). His critics are quick to point out that, while he served in cabinet under Premier Don Getty, Alberta's debt doubled, and per capita spending was the highest in Canada by over a thousand dollars per year, even after a nearly 30% drop in provincial revenues (source). Orman, to this point, hasn't explained why it was okay when he was in cabinet, but it was grossly inappropriate when he was in the oilpatch and other people were in cabinet.

On the "Issues" section of his website, Rick makes his feelings pretty clear. On most of the issues he addresses, the PC Party is just flat-out screwing up (in his view). The only issue that doesn't include a criticism of the current government is Education. Really and truly, and I'm not saying this for hyperbole's sake, it reads like the website of someone who's trying to get the PC's kicked out of office. I can fully understand the desire to "re-make the party" - continuous evolution is what has allowed the PC's to hold power for so long in Alberta. Without that generational change, they'd already be gone. But running for the leadership by saying "you've all screwed this up, and I'm here to fix it" is a tough sell. Especially for someone who supported (eventual Liberal leader) Nancy Betkowski over Ralph Klein in the 1993 leadership race. Are we to believe the last good leader the PC's had was Getty?

It doesn't make sense to me, but maybe it's not supposed to. If Rick spends his money wisely, and runs a good Get Out The Vote operation on September 17th, then he could have an impact here. And if those people he brings to the party - be they from the Wildrose or from somewhere else entirely - stay involved in the party going forward, then he'll get the change he so fervently preaches in favour of. The question is: Will the Klein and Stelmach-era PC's still feel welcome? Or will Rick change the locks?


Ted Morton stayed relatively quiet in his leadership campaign until the race was officially underway, out of respect for Premier Stelmach, and this is very much to his credit. Also to the Professor's credit is that he seems to have learned some very hard-earned lessons from his last run for the party leadership in 2006. Ted is staying focused on policy. And, unlike 2006, he's making it really hard to look at him as the boogeyman of the PC leadership race, because so many of his policies just flat-out make sense. I mean, I just read his entire page on Democratic Renewal, and there wasn't a single thing - not a SINGLE THING - on that page that I disagreed with.

Granted, it's easier to grasp some of Ted's policies if you were already leaning far enough to the right that your Friendly Neighbourhood Red Tory (that's me) would suggest you see a chiropractor - but, the reality of this race is that the people who leaned left likely weren't going to vote for Ted anyhow. He knows his market.

And SPEAKING of that market - Ted Morton has either hired an absolutely brilliant polling firm that is getting down to the brass tacks on what his likely voters care about, or he's totally off his rocker (I'd think the first option is more likely). Ted's 2 big newsmaking items over the past few weeks have been to defend Alberta's rodeo heritage (I hadn't realized some of the leadership candidates were, in fact, ANTI-rodeo, but I guess it must be so) and to show off his Vanity Plate proposal, to boost awareness of conservation efforts. Again: Ted knows his market. You've got to play to your strengths, and Ted's strength is rural populism and his years-long tenure as Minister of Sustainable Resource Development - which means he was on Page 3 of everyone's hunting regulations, for years.

Morton is also one of only 2 candidates to have garnered significant MLA endorsements from both Calgary AND Edmonton, as well as rural Alberta. Now, an MLA endorsement doesn't mean much if you live on the other side of the province... but if you live in Calgary-Egmont or Edmonton-Calder and you're a very involved PC member in your area, then the fact that your MLA is endorsing Ted Morton gives you a reason to take a look at him. And in the more populous areas, with more members on the rolls, that can make all the difference.

There's a lot we don't know about Ted's chances just yet. But the one thing we DO know? An older model blue van will quite possibly be involved. You heard it here first. ;)




The first PC Leadership Forum takes place in Vermilion tonight at 7:00 pm. This forum - and all of the forums - will be live streamed across the province and the world via the PC Alberta website. Tune in and watch these 6 closely - one of them WILL be the Premier of Alberta on October 2nd.

"The Next Premier of Alberta"

Nation, I've been watching with interest as the mainstream media began to notice that there was, in fact, a leadership race going on within the Alberta PC Party.

I admit to experiencing some level of schadenfreude as I watch some not-quite-ready-for-primetime-members of the Wildrose Party (nee Wildrose Alliance) - some of whom are nominated, or are contesting nominations to be elected Members of the Legislative Assembly - talk about their leader as "the Next Premier of Alberta".

Here's a tip, gang - if you want to run the Legislative affairs of the Province of Alberta, take the time to learn how our system of government works. The only way Danielle Smith can be the next Premier of Alberta is if she wins the PC Leadership race this fall. Failing that, someone ELSE will be sworn in on October 2nd, or before.

I don't expect members of the general public to understand this part of our arcane, centuries-old system of governance... but a candidate for provincial office who doesn't understand this is akin to a mechanic who insists that your car's electrical system can be fixed by pumping the tires and lubricating the door hinges...  you just might want to reconsider your choice of mechanic.

All that aside, though, I want to talk today about the choice that faces members of the Progressive Conservatives as they choose the person who will, in FACT, be the next Premier of Alberta - and how that choice affects not only die-hard PC's and their party's future prospects, but all of us as Albertans.

In the days and weeks since the leadership race became official, I've begun to hear a rising sentiment among my PC friends that there are, in fact, multiple factors at play that might radically alter their choice by late September.  Some of those factors include:

• Which candidate can best unify the party's progressive & conservative wings, north & south wings, rural and urban wings?
• Which candidate can renew the party and inspire a new generation of young PC's to replace the stalwarts from the Lougheed era?
• Which candidate can raise the funds required to wage an election campaign within a year of assuming the Premier's office?
• Which candidate can capture the imagination of the Alberta public, and win an election?
• Which candidate can out-duel Danielle Smith, Brian Mason, Glenn Taylor and the eventual winner of the Liberal race in a debate and in a campaign?
• Which candidate will best be able to thwart efforts by the other parties to paint the PC Party as hopelessly left of centre, or hopelessly out of touch in the minds of the Alberta voters?
• Which candidate will represent enough of a change from the status quo to satisfy voters who were less than impressed with the Stelmach years?
• Which candidate would make the best Premier, whether that be for 6 months or 15 years?

... and, one question that I've started to hear more and more: Which candidate would be able to hold the party together if it lost the next election, and help it rebuild? (My answer? I seriously doubt that the PC Party could survive an election loss. The coalition between populists and progressives was built in an absence of other options, and held together by success. Lose that glue, and the members would disperse among the other options on the political landscape.)

There's a feeling in some PC circles that the best thing that can happen to the party is for it to lose an election, and spend 4 years on the other side of the Legislature. Losing has a way of flushing out the people who are just hanging out with you because you're a winner. It shows you who your true friends are. And it forces you to closely examine what it is you're doing wrong that led to your defeat - and let's be honest: A lot of PC Party members are still so completely convinced that the party has never once made a mistake that it would make your head spin. I'm not saying those people are in the MAJORITY - but they're certainly still around.

The complication facing party members is that the names they come up with in response to the questions posed above are often consistent from one party member to the next, but vary wildly from one question to the next. For example, most people would answer that Rick Orman and Ted Morton are the best candidates to avoid being labeled as "Phony Conservatives" by opposition parties, but those same people admit that they're hardly the best choices to bridge the "progressive/conservative" fault in the party's membership base. Likewise, Gary Mar is clearly a fundraiser of rare ability, but it's hard for some party members to see a lot of party renewal in the cards under a successful Mar leadership bid, considering the large number of entrenched, multi-term incumbent MLA's backing him.

The long and short of it is, there's no "perfect candidate" - no obvious first choice, who can deal with all of the issues raised above.

So, the question PC members need to ask themselves as the summer BBQ circuit hits full-stride, and pancake breakfast season begins, is: Which of the above points matter MOST to me?

Do I really care if the new leader can beat Danielle Smith? Or is it more important to me that the party renews itself before dying a slow, atrophic death?

Is it more important to pick someone with business connections who can raise money? Or is it more important to pick someone who can appeal to common Albertans around a kitchen table rather than a boardroom table?

The choice is a tough one, for the party members, because they need to examine what they REALLY value, and that includes being honest with themselves about where the party has gone wrong, in their view.

No matter what happens, there are going  to be a lot of people who are disappointed that their first choice didn't win. There are going to be fences that need mending. The party is going to need time to heal. So these assertions that the PC's are planning a fall election within weeks of choosing a leader are simply preposterous. The new leader is going to have dozens of nomination contests to approve and sign off on, and that doesn't even give the successful candidates time to door-knock ahead of a fall date. If the new leader holds an election in 2011, it will be because he or she has decided they want to maximize their chances of LOSING said election. A desire on the part of that leader which is, at best, unlikely.

I'd encourage Albertans of all political stripes - or of none - to pay attention to the policy planks being rolled out over the summer by the various candidates. You can buy a PC membership for $5 through the party website, if you want to vote in the leadership race. Remember: The winner of this race WILL be Premier, for months if not longer. There's absolutely no doubt as to that fact. So, you have a rare chance to directly elect the person who will be setting government priorities and a budget. Making decisions that affect you and your family, and spending your tax dollars.

Decide what's important to you.

Don't let me, or any other blogger, or the media tell you what you care about, or who the "legitimate contenders" are.

Decide for yourself: What matters to me?

Then come back here or visit some of the other great Albertan political blogs, read about what these candidates are saying, and decide which candidate makes the most sense, and which one you trust the most on the issues that you care the most about.

That's democracy, folks. That's the way this whole thing works. That's how you choose the Next Premier of Alberta.

- Savage out.

The PC Leadership Contenders (alphabetical by surname):

Doug Griffiths

Doug Horner

Gary Mar

Ted Morton

Rick Orman

Alison Redford

Some great blogs that talk Alberta politics, covering the PC Leadership:

daveberta.ca

albertavote.ca

Capital Notebook

Alberta Diary

Inside Alberta Politics

PCinYYC

Video: Interview with PC Leadership candidate Doug Griffiths

Nation, in early February I had a chance to sit down with Doug Griffiths, MLA for Battle River-Wainwright, to talk about his vision for the province of Alberta going forward. Griffiths had announced only the day before that he would be seeking the PC leadership, and his team had quickly set up a "Social Media Breakfast", which was attended by several blogging luminaries from the Calgary area.

Turns out they had a spare seat, so I was invited, too. ;)

Griffiths will be getting the "Full Savaging" later on, in terms of a full candidate profile (as will ALL of the PC Leadership contenders), but considering I finally figured out how to fix the "brightness" issue on the video I recorded (too bad I couldn't fix the "stammering interviewer" issue, but Microsoft Movie Maker only lets you do so much), I thought it better to get the video up sooner, rather than later.

I want to make it clear that, as always, my coverage of these contenders should not in any way be construed as an endorsement. I am willing - HAPPY, in fact - to meet with every PC Leadership candidate - Liberal leadership contenders too, for that matter - when they're in the Calgary area. Informed voters make better choices, and I want Albertans of ALL political stripes to make the best choices possible, so consider this an open invitation. I don't mind putting the work in, if it helps my fellow citizens make their decisions.  I'm working on scheduling with the Mar and Redford camps right now. Everyone else - I'm easy to find. (Hint: Email's in my blogger profile)

So, without any further ado...  Heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeere's Griffiths (in 2 parts due to duration limits, works out to JUST over 15 minutes)...