Sunday, March 2, 2008

Just For Fun...

Nation, those of you who have followed this blog from the beginning know that I don't do "endorsements". Completely unscientific, barely-based-in-fact predictions, though, are another story entirely (I'm a lot like the Journal that way).

I've plugged our E.S. Nation poll results into the Hill & Knowlton Alberta Election Predictor 2008, to see what kind of Legislature we can expect if the entire province of Alberta votes the same way the members of E.S. Nation indicate they're going to.

FOURTH RUN - 10:10 pm, March 2nd

PC 28%
Lib 32%
WAP 22%
NDP 10%
Grn 8%

PC 28 seats
Lib 34 seats
WAP 14 seats
NDP 5 seats
Grn 2 seats

  • PC's and Wildrose won't formally ally at first, so Liberals form a formal parliamentary alliance with the NDP and try, but fail, to get the Greens to sign on as well. Taft is the Premier, but with the PC+WAP seat count at 42, the government can fall at any time - and likely will as soon as the PC's under new leader Ted Morton and WAP can get down to serious merger talks.
  • Tories are kicked out of the cities, except for a band from Calgary-Cross South and West to Lougheed.
  • WAP picks up a bunch of rural seats, as well as Egmont.
  • NDP still stuck in Edmonton.
  • Greens add Banff-Cochrane and Calgary-North Hill.
  • Liberals take most of North and West Calgary, several rural ridings near Edmonton, and virtually capture every urban area in the province.

Likely Result:
Province goes ape over the "Urban Minority Government" verus the "Rural Opposition" arrangement, and all hell breaks loose as the parties jockey for position.
Stelmach gone (Morton in), Hinman stays put and 2 parties eventually negotiate to form the Alberta Conservative Party, Taft on shaky ground as Bronconnier moves in as the saviour to try and finish Calgary off and earn a majority, Read stays put, Mason out (Notley in).

THIRD RUN - 3:20 pm, March 2nd

PC 21%
Lib 34%
WAP 21%
NDP 12%
Grn 9%

PC 10 seats
Lib 47 seats
WAP 16 seats
NDP 5 seats
Grn 4 seats
Ind 1 seat


  • PC's lose most of Calgary to the Liberals; hold only Cross, Hays and Shaw; lose Egmont to the WAP and North Hill to the Greens
  • NDP wins 4 seats in Edmonton as well as West Yellowhead, rest of Edm. goes Liberal except for Manning, which elects Dan Backs
  • Liberals win rural seats around Edmonton and a few in the South
  • Alliance dominates most of Eastern and North-Western Alberta
  • Greens win seats in Calgary North Hill, Banff-Cochrane, Drayton Valley-Calmar, and Foothills-Rockyview

Likely Result: Stelmach gone (PC's fold as a party, with party's right going to WAP and left to Lib), Mason gone (Notley in), Taft hears rumours of a popular mayor from Calgary thinking of coming after his job, Hinman leader of opposition, secure as main challenger for his job lost his seat to a Green, Read is lionized as a saint in Green mythology

SECOND RUN - 9:20 am, March 2nd

PC 22%
Lib 37%
WAP 22%
NDP 11%
Grn 7%

PC 10 seats
Lib 52 seats
WAP 15 seats
NDP 5 seats
Grn 1 seat


  • PC's lose most of Calgary to the Liberals; hold only Hays and Shaw; lose Egmont to the WAP
  • NDP wins 5 seats in Edmonton, rest of city goes Liberal
  • Liberals break through in rural Alberta, splitting seats with the Alliance in the North
  • Tories hold the rural buffer around Calgary
  • Greens win their first ever seat in Canada - Banff-Cochrane
Likely Result:
Stelmach gone (PC's fold as a party, with party's right going to WAP and left to Lib), Mason gone (Notley in), Taft finds his faith in humanity restored, Hinman faces challenges from incoming power-hungry ex-Tories

FIRST RUN - 11:00 pm, March 1st
PC 35%
Lib 21%
WAP 21%
NDP 14%
Grn 7%

PC 53 seats
Lib 14 seats
WAP 9 seats
NDP 7 seats
Grn nada


  • Tories lose Lacombe-Ponoka, Dunvegan-Central Peace, Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, Red Deer North, Stoney Plain, Whitecourt-Ste. Anne, Lac La Biche-St. Paul and Vermillion-Lloydminster to the WAP
  • Liberals lose Edmonton Ellerslie and Edmonton Glenora to the NDP
  • Edmonton Manning goes NDP
Likely Result:
Stelmach gone (Morton in), Taft gone (Bronco in), Mason gone (Notley in), WAP members start building a golden statue of Paul Hinman.


daveberta said...

As fun as the Hill & Knowlton calculator is, it doesn't take into account individual races and weighs in favour of some parties in constituencies where there was a strong candidate rather than traditional strong party support in 2004 (The NDP in Edmonton-Glenora is a good example).

Enlightened Savage said...

Dave: Agreed. That's why the post is entitled "Just For Fun". I figured, everyone who's posting predictions is making an educated guess anyway, so why not make an uneducated one, based on the least scientific poll available - the one of the right-hand sidebar of a political blog? :)

Although, you'd better believe that I'll be taking full credit for having the smartest readers on earth if one of these prediction models comes true. Just be forwarned, Mr. Canadian Blog Awards - I'm coming for ya! ;)

Kirk Schmidt said...

Well, if you take into account all parties, there's 8.4 x 10^56 combinations for the Alberta benches...

If we only consider the grits, tories, dippers, rosies, and greens, there's still 2.2 x 10^55 combinations.

I predict that one of those combinations will be what we see in the legislature.

Enlightened Savage said...

Kirk: Good prediction.

Go with the lower number... nobody votes for independents... ;)