tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6929537540404873123.post5436090798682961275..comments2023-10-04T06:59:20.803-06:00Comments on The Enlightened Savage: If A Political Party Falls In The Forest...Enlightened Savagehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17872131888278838737noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6929537540404873123.post-69014886342840792922008-01-20T23:16:00.000-07:002008-01-20T23:16:00.000-07:00"Disgruntled Tories are more likely to migrate to ..."Disgruntled Tories are more likely to migrate to the Liberals and even the NDP than vote for AA -- if they actually vote and not stay home, that is!"<BR/><BR/>Not in the Alberta that I live in. No one who has an idea about ALberta Tories could really say that with a straight face.<BR/><BR/> Neither Taft or Mason have that kind of gravitas. This is the province of protest parties, and when Albertans decide they want change, they do just that --but they never quite go "established" parties. Even the Tories where nowhere on the radar before Lougheed swept in. They had been reduced to a small rump by the early 70s. Socreds and UFA were also new and certainly not established. <BR/><BR/>Someone is going to sweep the Tories out of power in Alberta one day, but it ain't going to be the Liberals or the NDs. I am not saying that it will be the Wildrose Alliance but Any casual observer of Alberta's electoral history, even a Calgary Observer, would bet on a new party doing the job.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6929537540404873123.post-18435698764966850672008-01-11T22:43:00.000-07:002008-01-11T22:43:00.000-07:00"Edmontonians and Calgarians will not support a pa..."Edmontonians and Calgarians will not support a party that tries to meddle in people's private lives."<BR/><BR/>Not accurate. I understand you were referring to religiously motivated meddling, and you may be correct about that aspect, but the fact is that Edmontonians & Calgarians routinely support candidates (from all parties) that advocate meddling in people's private lives. <B>All</B> parties in Alberta advocate Nanny State policies that are all about meddling in private lives. <BR/><BR/>If this new party doesn't climb onto the Nanny State bandwagon, that alone could bring them an avalanche of votes from people (like me) who are ready to give up (or have already given up) on bothering to vote at all. These days I'm feeling empathy for the unfortunates in the former soviet union - there's lots of candidates to choose from but they all belong to the same "Party" anyway (even if they run under different names).<BR/><BR/>Roy Harroldson of gaiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06596484594541795676noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6929537540404873123.post-68477924714019114962008-01-08T11:42:00.000-07:002008-01-08T11:42:00.000-07:00I think Warner is missing the rather huge and unav...I think Warner is missing the rather huge and unavoidable fact that never before has the PC party made a decision so negatively affecting the economy.<BR/><BR/>People woudln't, and didn't vote for the Alliance in previous elections because there was no need to.<BR/><BR/>However, we have no come to a situation where the Wildrose Alliance will be the only true fiscally conservative option on the ballot. The PC's, with their huge spending, and falling revenues, are much more in line with the NDP and the Liberals.<BR/><BR/>So thats where this election becomes interesting. Alberta is fiscally conservative, and generall socially moderate. Can the Wildrose Alliance capture this essence.... I for one, hope so.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6929537540404873123.post-22141239175286122182008-01-07T22:06:00.000-07:002008-01-07T22:06:00.000-07:00Well, actually all three "facts" had some amount o...Well, actually all three "facts" had some amount of opinion in them (Premier's adequacy, membership makeup of new Wild Rose/Alberta Alliance party).<BR/><BR/>Here's another opinion: great post ;-)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6929537540404873123.post-9254342115390827792008-01-07T14:43:00.000-07:002008-01-07T14:43:00.000-07:00Does anyone else think that Werner's third FACT is...Does anyone else think that Werner's third FACT is more of an opinion?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6929537540404873123.post-13919116115030715442008-01-07T12:37:00.000-07:002008-01-07T12:37:00.000-07:00Werner,People, including yourself, love to make mu...Werner,<BR/><BR/>People, including yourself, love to make much about the PC by-election loss in Calgary-Elbow. But first, this was a by-election, and by-elections are typically the strongest representations of unrest by party members, particularly in this case, where a loss would not imperil the government. You are correct in noting that most of the "lost" voters stayed home rather than vote ALP, but that is exactly the point. Calgary-Elbow includes some upscale, "Liberal-friendly" areas, and even there, people did not come out and vote Liberal. And it is certainly not a bastion of AA-friendly votes.<BR/><BR/>Funny how people love to pontificate on the Calgary-Elbow loss, but rarely mention the huge Drumheller-Stettler by-election win, even in passing. PC candidate Jack Hayden demolished the competition, taking nearly 60% of the vote, and this is not worth talking about? The Alliance candidate places fifth in a field of 7 in supposed "small-c conservative country" above only Green and NDP, and below Social Credit.<BR/><BR/>Those who dislike him (including PC's of convenience who have their nuts in a vice over Alberta's royalty changes) dismiss Stelmach as too rural. But if that is the case, look for the AA, and the WR/AA if the merger goes through, to possibly lose influence in the next election, rather than gain any.<BR/><BR/>I think your comment about the former PC Youth President also needs more context. First, young David was not President of PC Youth... he was President of YAPCA... a group he formed which took over after a decline in youth participation in the party. Also, he did not "take" the entire youth wing with him, more like two other individuals. [I also recall him making less-than-favourable statements about your guy Ralph K.] If you were interested, I am sure that the President of PCYA (the original, and current wing of the youth in AB PC politics) could fill you in on what actually occurred. And if you attended the AB PC policy conference last fall, I think you would have gained a far better picture of the state of the membership - that is, they actually feel LISTENED TO again, which is a clear departure from the last regime.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6929537540404873123.post-16263516915049237522008-01-07T09:08:00.000-07:002008-01-07T09:08:00.000-07:00As for the federal PC-Reform/Alliance merger, that...As for the federal PC-Reform/Alliance merger, that was an actual merger, with the new party actually sitting down to work out a new platform, policies, etc.<BR/><BR/>According to information received from someone at the AA (via one of my blogs), the AA does not adopt any of the policy resolutions taken by the Wildrose Party, so the AA may adopt the Wildrose constitution as you say, but according to what I was told by the AA official, they will merely open their doors to Wildrose members, and that's it.<BR/><BR/>Stelmach still has some time to go before an election, so there's plenty of time and opportunity for a Tory meltdown.<BR/><BR/>Look, Klein's riding was lost to the Liberals because the Tory voters stayed home that day (that should tell the AA something: left without an alternative (including the AA!!!!), Tory voters felt it was better to stay home and not vote at all).<BR/><BR/>If this happens on election day, a lot more ridings could be lost by the Tories to Liberals and the NDP (but NOT to the AA).<BR/><BR/>After all, Albertan voters have been quite clear about this (in general elections, by-elections and polls): the Alberta Alliance is not an option, not even for the most conservative voters. And even now, among conservatives who are disgusted with Stelmach, we see that the AA has not moved in the polls at all (and it is still behind both the Liberals and the NDP) -- in other words, both the Libs and NDP have better chances of electing MLAs than the AA, and this will still be true after the "merger" (actually, even more so).<BR/><BR/>Actual predictions in Albertan politics are almost impossible because Albertans will do whatever they feel is right at the time, without giving any prior sign of "warning", but if there's one thing that's safe to predict, it is that the AA is not an option.<BR/><BR/>Disgruntled Tories are more likely to migrate to the Liberals and even the NDP than vote for AA -- if they actually vote and not stay home, that is!<BR/><BR/>Just take the former PC Youth president who resigned in protest over Stelmach's approach (and also took the entire Youth wing with him): he didn't say he was going to vote for another conservative party; he actually said that he'd vote for the Liberals as long as Stelmach was in power.<BR/><BR/>At any rate, we're looking at interesting and fascinating times, and political junkies will certainly get their money's worth :-)Georgehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10434442702660664636noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6929537540404873123.post-15521061421559723592008-01-07T07:41:00.000-07:002008-01-07T07:41:00.000-07:00Another prediction: Werner Patels will continue to...Another prediction: Werner Patels will continue to post multiple blogs of essentially the same subject matter in a valiant attempt to get people to listen to him again.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6929537540404873123.post-114545605796524292008-01-07T01:36:00.000-07:002008-01-07T01:36:00.000-07:00Werner: Fair comments, and quite possibly correct,...Werner: Fair comments, and quite possibly correct, as well - only time will tell.<BR/><BR/>I agree that this is a "merger" in name only - the Alliance press releases make it quite clear that their party is changing names, adopting the Wildrose constitution, and offering memberships free of charge to existing Wildrose members. That said, the same thing happened to the federal PC's. Merger, take-over... call it what you will, but the voter sees a new name on the ballot either way.<BR/><BR/>I doubt very much that the Tories are going to lose their majority... unless they have a mid-campaign meltdown of epic proportions, I can't see any more than a 20-seat swing (Tories lose 10, Liberals/NDP/Greens/Wildrose Alliance pick them up). This would leave the Tories with 50 seats in an 83-seat house, still a comfortable majority. In order to lose their majority, the PC's would need to lose 19 seats - essentially, the entire city of Calgary (or the entire city of Edmonton, as well as every rural riding south of Red Deer) would need to elect Liberals, NDP, Green or Wildrose Alliance MLA's.<BR/><BR/>Needless to say, this would be the textbook example of an electoral disaster of titanic proportions. PoliSci students would be reading about it for decades. I can't see it happening in 10 weeks - Taft doesn't have the ability to make it happen, Mason doesn't have the funding, the Greens don't have enough professional politicians to win more than a couple of seats at most, and the Wildrose Alliance is fresh out of the oven, but with the same Alliance policies (at this point) that got them 1 seat in the last election with a lame duck Premier leading the other right-of-centre party.<BR/><BR/>That said, I HAVE been wrong before (it was a Tuesday, in the 80's)...<BR/><BR/>Oh, and by the way... male. :)Enlightened Savagehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17872131888278838737noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6929537540404873123.post-84585936197106732652008-01-07T00:49:00.000-07:002008-01-07T00:49:00.000-07:00The whole religious thing you mention doesn't even...The whole religious thing you mention doesn't even come into play here.<BR/><BR/>Let's just look at the facts:<BR/><BR/>Fact 1:<BR/><BR/>The majority of voters, according to recent polls, are undecided. A clear sign that they were waiting for a new party to come along and save them (the Tories aren't the answer, but neither are Taft's Liberals, who have been plummeting in the polls despite one of the most incompetent premiers in a long time).<BR/><BR/>Fact 2:<BR/><BR/>The Alberta Alliance has always polled below the Alberta NDP (and often behind the Alberta Greens) in a supposedly "conservative" province. If the AA couldn't make any progress over a good number of years, what makes them think they can do so now after absorbing a new party that won't even leave any traces or footprints in the "merged" party (note: the "merged" Wildrose Alliance Party = old Alberta Alliance -- it's not really a merger; instead, the Alberta Alliance merely changes its names, while a new party gets annihilated).<BR/><BR/>Fact 3:<BR/><BR/>People who were hopeful that the Wildrose Party could be the party they, the undecided voters, have been waiting for are going to be extremely pissed off, and so the AA won't get any of their votes either.<BR/><BR/>Prediction:<BR/><BR/>The next election, therefore, will most likely see a minority Tory government, with an increased number of seats for the Alberta Liberals, NDP and, possibly, even a seat for the Greens -- but none for the AA (i.e., even Mr. Hinman will lose his seat).Georgehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10434442702660664636noreply@blogger.com